Volatility falls into end month

With equities battling higher across much of the day, the VIX was knocked back into the 13s, and was unable to claw back, settling -3.8% @ 13.86 (intraday range: 14.16 - 13.57). If sp >1883, then VIX looks set to slip into the 12/11s.


VIX'60mn

VIX'daily3

VIX'monthly

Summary

*a rare look at the VIX monthly chart, which had a net decline of -1% this March.
--

The hourly VIX cycle is arguably close to floored, but..if the equity bulls do manage to break >sp'1883, then VIX will be further crushed for the rest of this week.

Daily VIX candle was a reversal doji candle, the second consecutive reversal. Although MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle ticked lower for the third day... no sign of a turn yet.

The VIX 20s look very difficult, and are most certainly out of range, unless bears can take out the key low of sp'1834.
-

more later...on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equities closed higher, with the sp +14pts @ 1872. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, saw much more significant gains, settling +1.7% and +1.8% respectively. Despite the Monday gains, it remains a borderline situation, bulls need >1883, whilst bears need <1834.


sp'60min

Summary

*minor weak chop in the closing hour, but nothing for the equity bears to get overly excited about.
--

..and that is a wrap for Q1. Certainly, the bulls remain in broad control, but we remain a tight range that is now four weeks old.

Clearly, if we break >1883..we'll battle considerably higher. Similarly...a break <1834..will open up the 1800/1790 zone.

--
more later...on the VIX

3pm update - last hour of the quarter

Equity indexes are still net higher on the day, especially the two leaders - Trans/R2K. As things are, the sp'500 is set to close March with net gains of around 0.7%. Metals are weak, Gold -$9, and set for a major monthly bearish reversal. VIX is weak..so far unable to hold the 14s.


sp'60min

sp'monthly

Summary

...here is the closing hour of Q1 trading!
--

*I will probably do a limited monthly chart summary later this evening, although there is a lot to cover for this month, not least in commodity land.

Overall, most indexes look set to close higher, the notable exception is the R2K. The old leader - Trans, has monthly gains of around 3%.
-


3.13pm.. I am just going over some of the monthly charts for this evenings posts, some pretty interesting moves to cover..not least Copper, and Oil.

*new QE-pomo schedule is out.. next sig' QE is not until Wednesday, and even then, its just $2-2.5bn.

The QE prop IS being taken away...


3.25pm.. By end Tuesday, bears need to be in the low 1860s..to have any hope.

It remains a 4 week period of chop...but near term momentum is with the bulls..but I'm sure not going long at these levels.

If I get the boot at 1884/85...so be it.


3.40pm.. sp'1874....a close >1875...would be especially bullish for tomorrow.

Certainly, this was just another month for the equity bulls...month'30.. since grand wave from Oct'2011, when sp' was a mere 1074.

Indeed...800pts...in 30 months.


3.48pm.. a daily close >1875...looks just out of range...but nothing for the bears to get overly excited about.

Well, thats it for another quarter..back at the close...with some end month updates..across the evening..especially on the precious metals..and miners.

2pm update - who wants to go long in the 1870s?

Equity indexes are holding the gains, but look very vulnerable in the remaining two hours of Q1 trading. VIX remains weak, a positive close would be a major sign for the bears.. but that won't be easy. Metals are weak, with Gold -$8.


sp'60min

GLD, daily

Summary

*the metals are indeed weak, and we'll see a major bearish reversal occur. More on that...on my Gold/Silver page..later.
---

As for equities...the hourly cycle sure is vulnerable. Either the bulls push hard here...or its going to break lower..yet again.

Considering the end month/quarter issues, the next two hours could see some pretty interesting moves.

Stay tuned!


2.17pm.. VIX just can't hold the 14s.. sp' 1872...but still..bears should be thankful for ANY close <1875, not that it removes threat of new highs tomorrow.

It remains....on the border.


2.25pm... Bears feeling max-pain this afternoon...on the edge.  I sure am.

Gold and Silver remain weak...for the bugs out there..a very disappointing month.

1pm update - VIX back into the 13s

With sp' seeing a further micro up wave to the mid 1870s, the VIX has been duly knocked lower, back to the levels from last Wed' morning. The two leaders - Trans/R2K are seeing some very significant gains, with the Trans once again close to breaking a new high.


VIX'60min

Trans, daily

Summary

So... sp'1875 - which has been a key resistance level for the last FOUR weeks.

A daily close >1875 would be very bullish for Tuesday (not least if there is sig' QE-pomo tomorrow, although we won't know that until the new QE schedule at 3pm today).
--

I remain short, but will get kicked out if >1884/85.

No point holding above there, since the next ceiling is probably somewhere in the 1950/75 area..by early May.
--


1.20pm.. Who wants to go long right now..in the 1870s... hmmm ?

Thats what I thought.
-
Lets see how we close the month...and quarter.

*notable weakness: TWTR, TSLA.  Certainly, the momo stocks aren't doing so great today.

Metals.. weak, Gold -$5..and a bearish monthly reversal..WILL occur.

12pm update - an interesting afternoon ahead

US indexes have seen morning gains in each of the past 7 trading days..yet each have faded to some degree. The rest of today will be particularly interesting, not least due to end month/quarter issues. Bulls need >1875 (although not necessarily today), whilst bears need <1852.


sp'daily5

vix'60min

Summary

*yes, we saw another opening reversal candle for the VIX this morning.
--

Four hours left of the month..and quarter. With the hourly equity/VIX cycles looking prone to a turn...the bulls face pressure all the way into the close.
--


VIX update from Mr T



--
time for lunch


12.20pm.. VIX fails to hold the opening low...now @ 13.80. For the bull maniacs out there, this is a major positive sign.

11am update - bulls have to keep pushing.. or else

US equity indexes are holding moderate gains, with the sp' having broken back into the low 1870s. VIX looks floored in the 13s (just how much lower could it go anyway?). Having seen no less than SIX previous failures to break higher, the pressure on the bulls will be high this afternoon.


sp'60min

Summary

*I think the hourly upper bol' is important. Bulls need a close - today..or tomorrow >1875.
--

For those who think the market will break lower..the short-stop levels are obvious....aren't they?
--

Meanwhile..in hysteria land... Twitter looks set to close the quarter <$50.

Hysteria fans..beware!


11.08am VIX 14.01... bears just need >14.25 to begin something...


11.27am.. VIX 14.16.... the potential IS there.  

How many of the rats will want to cash out this afternoon for end month? Hmmm

10am update - morning gains.. yet again

For the seventh consecutive day, the market opens higher... yet each time we've seen a rather significant reversal. Today is complicated with end month/quarter issues. VIX opens a little lower, but is already starting to rebound. Metals are weakening... Gold -$2


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

*opening reversal candle on the VIX. Underlying MACD cycle is kinda low.. and there is threat of the 16-18 zone this week.
--

**Chicago PMI : 55.9.. a clear miss.
--

Equity bears need to break back into the 1840s tomorrow (see rising trend line on daily chart).

Obvious target for the bulls is >1883...won't be easy..after 6 previous fails.
-

Long day..and long week ahead!


10.04am... Just 10pts from breaking a new high... unless some end month selling appears later today...bears look toast.

One thing seems for sure...within a few days..we'll either be >1883...or <1840. 


10.15am.. hourly VIX cycle will be flooring soon...bulls...have 'issues' ahead this afternoon.

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are moderately higher, sp +8pts, we're set to open around 1865 - close to the Friday high. Metals are slightly higher, Gold +$2, whilst the USD is a touch weak, -0.1%. Mr Market has a large number of end month/quarter issues to deal with today.


sp'daily5

Summary

*awaiting Chicago PMI - due 9.45am.
---

So..for the seventh consecutive day, we're set to open higher, and again...the issue is..how do we close..rather than open.

Can the bull maniacs finally break higher, or can the bears can attain a close in the low 1840s..and then punch <1830 later this week?

The weekly charts suggest...yes. Monthly charts (especially Dow) are vulnerable to rolling over into April.
--

Video update from Mr Permabull



Make of that...what you will.
--

*I remain short, with 'last line in the sand' short-stops around sp'1884/85.

Any break over that, and the 1925/50 zone would appear likely. Oscar is seeking 1975/2000 in the current multi-month wave.
-

9.09am.. sp +12pts..we're set to open 1869/70.  A mere 0.6% from breaking a new high.

Again, we're on the edge of a major breakout..but then..this is the 7th attempt.


9.38am... standing by for PMI....

A lousy start to the week for those in bear land..but haven't the last 7 mornings pretty much been the same?


9.45pm.. PMI 55.9... . that is a very clear miss....

Weekend update - US weekly indexes

It was a week of morning gains, but intraday reversals for the US equity indexes. Most indexes saw net weekly declines, lead by the R2K and Nasdaq, lower by -3.5% and -2.8% respectively. Equity bears just need to break <sp'1830, to open up a possible test of the lower weekly bollinger band.


Lets take our regular look at six of the main US indexes

sp'500

The sp' slipped 0.5%, having traded the week in a narrow range from 1875 to 1842. We have a weekly close above the important 10MA of 1834, yet price structure is arguably a 'castle top' as I like to call it. Any break <1830..and the market will drop pretty hard and fast.

There is key rising support, in the 1790/70 zone.. where the lower weekly bollinger is lurking. I do not believe a move <1750 (the monthly 10MA) is viable before May/June, and even that will be difficult.

Considering the many opportunities to have broken >1883, the bulls look to have used up all their chances, and I am thus seeking a break <1830.


Nasdaq Comp'

The tech was very weak, and saw a strong decline of -2.8%. This is the most bearish weekly close since at least May 2012. The outlook is most certainly bearish, with a target of 4000/3900 in the near term. In theory, that should equate to sp'1800/1790.


Dow

The mighty Dow managed a fractional gain of 0.1%...a doji candle of 'indecision'. We have a choppy top, spanning five weeks, and first downside target remains 16k.. a break of that opens up 15800/700s, which is viable next week.

For those curious, if we do see an intermediate'3 top this spring/summer, a multi-month decline would target 14000/13500 or so. The 12000s look overly low..and out of reach, even if the market is really annoyed at the QE withdrawal.


NYSE Comp'

The master index climbed a moderate 0.4%, but remains stuck..along with the rest of the market. Near term outlook offers downside to around 10000, perhaps 9800.


R2K

The second market leader fell a powerful -3.5% this week, with the most bearish weekly candle since May 2012. There is near term downside to 1100/1075, which would be a near full retrace of the Feb/March rally. R2K in the 1300s looks difficult this spring, and if we hit the lower weekly bollinger in the current wave, then it is possible that 1213 was a key inter'3 top.


Trans

The old leader slipped -0.85%, not exactly a major drop, but still...another week where the Trans tried to break and hold the 7600s...but kept failing. There is near term downside to 7300, if that fails, then 7000s - back to the Feb' low.


Summary

It was a week of intraday reversals, although you'd not know it, if were you just looking at the weekly R2K/Nasdaq charts, which saw pretty major declines.

Lets be clear, we've just seen net weekly declines, which are the most bearish since summer 2012. Price action IS different from what we saw across all of 2013.

From a trading perspective, it remains a simple situation. Bears can be short, with short stops at the recent highs, whilst prospective longs, should arguably be waiting for a new high to occur, before chasing it higher. Well, that is how i see it anyway.


The next big retrace?

The following assumes sp'1883 - a micro double top, was a key intermediate' 3 high. However, until we hit the lower weekly bollinger, bounce, and put in a lower high, bears can't be confident of the bigger picture.

sp'weekly9 - fib levels

A retrace of this size is currently the stuff of 'bear dreams'. As I've noted for months, it would seem natural for any major retrace to back test the old 2000/2007 highs, somewhere in the sp'1625/1575 zone. From there, I remain resigned to much higher levels into late 2015/early 2016, at least into the sp'2000s.


Looking ahead

The week begins with Chicago PMI, and Yellen is due to speak, although I don't believe the latter will be overly market moving.

Tuesday has another trio of data, but more important, Wed' will see the ADP jobs data and factory orders. Thursday has some data, but Mr Market will be far more focused on the next monthly jobs data..due Friday, 8.30am.

*There is no sig' QE Monday. The next QE schedule is issued next Monday at 3pm, so its possible we might see sig' QE on Tuesday.
--

As ever, comments are most welcome, especially if you wish to challenge my near term bearish outlook.

Back on Monday :)

Weekly cycles flip again

Despite a sixth opening equity bounce, the US market ended the week on a somewhat weak note. Across the week, most indexes closed with net declines, lead by the R2K and Nasdaq, lower by -3.5% and -2.8% respectively.


sp'weekly7c - best bearish case

Summary

So...we closed the week with a blue candle, a provisional 'warning of trouble' in my view. We have traded within a pretty tight trading range for five weeks now, and it won't last much longer.  Underlying MACD (green bar histogram) ticked lower this week, and price pressure remains moderately bearish.


Best near term outlook for the bears, remains the following...

sp'60min1b - H/S formation

For the above scenario to have any hope, we need a simple break of the neckline, but bears shouldn't be overly confident until <1830.

Thanks to all those who said hello this week, it makes all the difference.

Goodnight from London
--
*the weekend post will be on the US weekly indexes

Daily Index Cycle update

US indexes closed somewhat weak after opening gains, sp +8pts @ 1857 (intraday high 1866). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.5% and u/c respectively. Near term outlook remains a break <1830, which will open up a swift down move to the 1800/1790 zone.


sp'daily5

R2K

Trans

Summary

The weakness in the two leaders remain good an important warning of trouble for the broader market. The general weakness does bode for a break <sp'1830 next week, which should open up a further 2-3% downside.

Just look at the Transports, see all the little spikes into the 7600s, but the market just can't break higher. Yes, there is trend support around 7300, but were that to fail, then a full retrace of the Feb/March rally could occur... back to 7000.

Underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle remains strongly negative on all indexes, and it'd be surprising if we don't eventually break <1830, which should result in a large one day 'washout' move of sp -30/40pts.
-

a little more later...

Volatility climbs into the weekend

With US indexes failing to hold the morning gains, the VIX battled back from an early low of 13.73, settling -1.4% @ 14.41. Near term outlook is for the sp' to break <1830, and that should see the VIX climb into the upper teens. Across the week, the VIX declined by -3.9% .


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

VIX'weekly

Summary

* we saw the usual 'whack the VIX lower into the weekend', having briefly peaked at 14.86
--

A closing daily reversal candle on the VIX, but still, that was a bit of a disappointment, after the sp' had rolled over from 1866 in the early afternoon. The VIX is still lacking any significant upside kick. Even the upper teens look difficult to reach.

However, if sp' can break key support in the sp'1830s, then we should see a swift drop in equities to 1800/1790, and that should be enough to kick the VIX to 17/18s. The 20s..look somewhat unlikely.

more later..on the indexes

Closing Brief

US indexes closed somewhat weak, with yet another opening bounce having largely failed, sp +8pts @ 1857. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.5% and u/c respectively. Near term outlook remains a break <1830, which will open up the target zone of 1800/1790.


sp'60min

Summary

So.. a pretty weak afternoon of minor chop, after yet another opening bounce. Not exactly a full reversal, but..it'll do.
--

Considering the number of chances the bulls have already had to break >1883, I just can't see them doing it..before the bears get at least some kind of mini washout..to 1800/1790.

*I remain heavy short across the weekend.

Have a good weekend everyone!
--

*the weekend post will be on the US weekly indexes

3pm update - rats jumping ship into the weekend

US indexes continue to weaken, lead lower (as usual) by the Trans/R2K, with the R2K already red. Equity bears should be absolutely pleased with any daily close in the sp'1840s, with VIX 15s. For the bull maniacs out there.... you don't have my sympathies on your SIXTH consecutive failed bounce.


sp'60min

vix'60min

Summary

Last hour of the week..it should be an exciting one.

Hourly index/VIX cycles are strongly primed for a snap move..although I don't think we'll see <1840 by the close..that really would be a surprise.
--

stay tuned...into the close!


3.14pm...a little chop..but the weakness is STILL there...

for real comedy...

KING, daily

What a great start for another tech stock.


3.28pm...minor chop continues..although still chance of sp/dow turning red by the close.

After all...the rats WILL sell into the weekend.   VIX 15s remain a target...


3.37pm.. Bear flag on the 5min cycle....just need <1852..and a red close...is viable.

*watching clown finance TV for the closing hour... how they talk about 'investing in bitcoin'. sigh.


3.42pm.. R2K remains fractionally red...still time for the Dow/sp' to follow.

--
*I will hold short across the weekend, seeking a breaking <1830..which should open up 1800/1790...next week.


3.49pm... weak weak weak....time for the day-trading rats...to bail!

3.54pm... 2 hours of micro chop...kinda disappointing..oh well, at least we didn't close in the 1860s.

back at the close

2pm update - two hours to close red

Equities are seeing increasing weakness, and with two hours left of the trading week, the big question remains..how many of the rats will jump ship? A red close sure won't be easy, but from cyclical perspective, the setup is now in favour of the bears. 


sp'60min

vix'60min

Summary

So..two hours... <sp'1849, with VIX 15s?

Place ya bets ;)
-

2.07pm.. sp'1856... 10pts below the high...and still 114mins to go ;)

For those shorting the mid 1860s earlier...congrats....


2.16pm.. R2K turns ...RED.... rest of the market...set to follow.


2.27pm ..should see weakness all the way into the close. With the R2K already turning red...a close in the low sp'1840s is now viable..which frankly..would make for one hell of a big reversal..

Bulls...FAILED....sixth day.
-
Anyone wanna go long in the 1850s...into the weekend?  

...didn't think so.
-

Awaiting an entertaining closing hour.

1pm update - the two leaders remain weak

Despite gains - along with the rest of the market, the two leaders - Trans/R2K, are still weak. Most notably, the R2K is under the 50 day MA, whilst the Trans just can't break and hold the 7600s. Equity bulls face increasing downside pressure into the weekly close.


Trans, daily

R2K, daily

Summary

Well, 3 hours left of the trading week, right now, I'd settle for any weekly close in the sp'1850s. The 1840s...look out of range, even if a fair few of the rats jump ship.
--

Metals are back to flat..and the weekly declines are very significant, more on that later though.


1.03pm.. hourly MACD cycle....rolling over.   Bull maniacs...beware!

Personally, best bear case for the close, is probably 1850..with VIX 15...plenty of time to get there.


1.14pm...rolling...rolling.....rolling........over.

Sixth FAILED bounce... how many more do we need to see, before this snaps <1830 ?


1.32pm.. Equity bears should be seeking VIX 15s into the close... the hourly cycle will be primed for a surge in the closing hour.

Are we enjoying the swings....this week, yet?   

12pm update - bounce complete?

US indexes pushed to sp'1866, with VIX hitting a low of 13.73. However, once again, we have a very likely intraday reversal. The issue for the rest of today, is how many of the rats will want to bail into the weekend?


sp'60min

vix'60min

Summary

So..we have a potential hourly cycle peak of sp'1866. Clearly, the market is still holding together pretty well, but..with each attempt to bounce..the bulls look ever weaker.

Barring a truly bizarre break to new highs..>1883..these bounces remain that....bounces...to be shorted.
--


VIX update from Mr T



Teens..indeed.
--
stay tuned.

11am update - market burning the bears

A sixth day where the bears get burnt in the morning, with sp' in the mid 1860s..barely 1% from the historic high. The sand line is clear for both sides. Equity bulls should be seeking a close >1866 for a net weekly gain. Metals have reversed, Gold +$2


sp'60min

Summary

Little to add, on what remains just another day, much like the previous five.

Barring a break >1883, bulls have nothing to tout.
-

Right now, I'd only be concerned on a weekly close >1866

Still.......long day ahead.


11.24am Getting stuck in the mid 1860s.     If we can at least hold <1870 until 2pm...then a close in the 1850s..viable.

10am update - opening gains.. again

The market opens higher for the sixth consecutive day, the issue again is whether we'll see another reversal. Equity bears need to contain the bulls to the 1860s, any break into the 1870s...would be a problem. Metals are weak, Gold -$5


sp'60min

Summary

So...here we are again...as ever..what matters more..is how we close...not how we open.
--

VIX has naturally been knocked back into the 13s.

60min

Bears need a daily close in the 15s..if not the 16s to really confirm better things ahead.
-

10.03am.. Mr Market washing away..ALL the weak bears...and drawing in the bull chasers.... for the sixth day running.

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are moderately higher, sp +5pts, we're set to open at 1854. Unlike Wed/Thursday, equity bulls have no QE to help, and it will be interesting to see how many of the rats bail into the weekend. Metals are flat, but look set for significant net weekly declines.


sp'daily5

Summary

*awaiting data: pers' income/outlays, consumer sentiment.

So...yet again, we're set to open higher, but hey, how has that worked out in the previous FIVE occasions?

Bears should seek at least a moderate net weekly decline, right now the breakeven line is sp'1866.

sp'weekly

Anything in the 1840s would offer more clarity for next week. A close in the 1830s would be a bonus.

Good wishes for Friday trading.
-

Morning doom chatter from Hunter



--


9.10am.... futures remain sp +4/5pts ...to 1854 or so.

Metals have turned lower, Gold -$3.
-

For the opening 30minutes..look for black-fail candles on the hourly index charts, and a reversal (hollow red) candle on the VIX.

Another reversal today..seems very likely. 

Seeking a break under 1830

The weekly 10MA of sp'1833 remains a key level for the bull maniacs to hold. If it is broken, whether tomorrow, or next Monday, such a break will open up a swift ride lower to 1800/1790. Price action in recent days remains weak, and equity bears have reasonable opportunity at this time.


sp'weekly7c

Summary

*the above scenario remains my most bearish outlook. I am still open to the sp'1900s, but if we break <1830.. that will be difficult this spring. Certainly, if we hit the lower weekly bollinger band (1768, and rising), I'd consider 1883 a key intermediate'3 top.
--

So, just one day left of the trading week, and we are holding a blue candle at sp'1849.

My best hope right now is for a break of 1830, and that will open the door to much lower levels. Whether we get stuck around 1800/1790...or even a little lower...we'll just have to wait and see. The MACD (green bar histogram) remains in negative territory, and the market is very vulnerable to downside into this weekend, and across next week.


Looking ahead

In terms of econ-data, we have personal income/outlays, with consumer sentiment due at 9.55am. So..nothing major is due, and that will give the market an opportunity to trade on underlying price pressure..which right now, is 'weak'.

*There is no sig' QE-pomo until at least next Tuesday....bulls...beware!
--


Positioned for a major one day fall

I am heavy short, primarily via SDS, and also having again picked up a SPY option put block this afternoon. The following remains an attractive outlook...

sp'60min1b - double H/S

Tomorrow could be pretty exciting for the bears. There is no sig' QE for the bears to be concerned with, and as ever, one key issue will be....'who wants to hold long into the weekend?'.

If the bears can break <1830, by late morning, the afternoon could be...fun.

Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

US indexes saw moderate chop across the day, sp -3pts @ 1849 (intraday range 1842/55). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -0.2% and -0.3% respectively. Near term outlook is for a key break <1830, which will open up a swift move to 1800/1790.


sp'daily5

R2K

Trans

Summary

Despite the chop, the equity bears did get an important daily close <1850 - which used to be support, and is now becoming resistance.

The two leaders look weak, and they are offering much lower levels, equivalent to sp'1800/1790 which is my primary downside target zone.
--

a little more later...