With equities melting lower across the day, the VIX clawed moderately higher, settling +6.4% @ 13.68. Near term outlook offers the sp'2095/90 zone, and that might equate to VIX 14.50/15.00. Broader equity trend remains bullish, and VIX should remain subdued within the 15/11 zone.
VIX'60min
VIX'daily3
Summary
VIX looks set for Tuesday morning gains.. before maxing out somewhere in the mid/upper 14s... along with sp'2095/90.
The big 20 threshold looks out of range until the FOMC of June 17th.
*it is VERY notable that there were some HUGE VIX call trades today. It can probably be assumed it was 'GREXIT' protection for June/July.
See BLOOMBERG for details... with some comments from none other than Mr T. from optionmonster.
Equities closed moderately weak, sp -10pts @ 2105. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.1% and +0.1% respectively. Near term outlook offers Tuesday weakness to sp'2095/90, before the broader trend reasserts itself. The sp'2140s remain a valid upside target by end week.
sp'60min
Summary
*closing hour was moderately weak as expected
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... a pretty subdued start to the week, but that is okay, as everyone gets a chance to be positioned as they wish.
Regardless of overnight action, some further weakness looks due tomorrow.... to sp'2095/90 zone.. with some degree of latter day recovery.
The broader trend remains.... UP.
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*I remain on the sidelines, but will consider a GLD-short tomorrow morning... broader price structure remains very bearish to the Gold $1000 threshold.
US equities continue to weaken, with the sp'2100 threshold set to be broken early Tuesday... with a downside target zone of 2095/90... along with VIX 14.50/15.00. Broader trend remains bullish. Metals remain a little weak, Gold -$5, but with a viable jump higher at the Tues' open. Oil is weak, -0.4%
sp'60min
VIX'60min
Summary
Clearly, a moderate retrace continues.. and it does look like there is a reasonable probability of the 2095/90 zone tomorrow morning.. which should make for a floor.
On any basis, the sp'2140s - as offered on the weekly cycle, remains a valid target within the near term.
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*I will have eyes on another GLD short tomorrow morning... maybe Gold can jump $10 in early morning.. which would make for an attractive re-short level.
The hourly equity/VIX cycles both favour the bears for the rest of today, and probably the early part of Tuesday also. Further weakness to the sp'2100/2090 zone looks due, with VIX of 14.75/15.00. Metals remain a little weak, but seemingly susceptible to turning positive, Gold -$4
sp'60min
VIX'60min
Summary
Little to add.
Further equity weakness/VIX strength looks due into the close... with a gap lower tomorrow morning... if minor.. and likely... it won't last long.
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notable strength: NFLX +3.0%. Bullish 'Sense8' :) due June 5th.
As usual, NFLX will release the whole season all at once on a Friday night.. so it'll be weekend binge watching for those interested.
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2.16pm.. sp'2109..... melting toward 2100... and probably 2090s tomorrow morning.
Gold continues to trade inverse... a fractional net daily gain is just about possible.. I will look to re-short tomorrow morning. .which should sync with an equity floor.
US equity indexes have slipped a touch more lower, with sp -5pts @ 2110. The VIX hourly cycle has a clear price gap in the upper 14s. If VIX can hit 14.50/75 tomorrow, it would offer at least sp'2100, perhaps briefly 2095/90 zone. Metals appear to be trading inverse equities, Gold -$4, now threatening a positive close.
VIX'60min
GLD'60min
Summary
At the current rate, the hourly VIX MACD cycle will turn positive before the close.. offering increasing equity weakness into the close.
It would seem a brief foray under sp'2100 is now possible.... but really... it will merely be another level where the big money pile in.
notable weakness, AA, -1.3%
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*With Gold seemingly trading inverse to equities... best guess is moderate strength into the close... and a viable Tuesday gap higher.
US equity indexes continue to see minor chop.. and are a touch inclined to the downside. Metals have seen a minor snap lower, Gold -$6. Oil has similarly turned negative, -0.8%.
sp'60min
Summary
Little to add.
It is a pretty quiet Monday of minor chop... and right now, it looks like its a case of just consolidating the Friday gains.
From what I gather, there is a possibility of Greece agreeing another 'can kick' tomorrow... at least buying them another month or so.
If so, that would be bullish Euro, bearish USD... and that would help give most $ denominated asset clases a push to the upside.
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GLD, 15min
*I was intentionally short-stopped out of GLD around 11.30am.... and will consider yet another re-short on the next bounce... whether late today.. or tomorrow.
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Whilst US equities see continued minor weak chop, one of the Fed officials has been on the loose on clown finance TV. Williams has been proudly touting a t-shirt of 'Monetary policy Its data dependent. Yeah, you could say that... the variable being the sp'500.
Data dependent... yeah.. on the sp'500
sp'60min
Summary
*Williams is due to speak officially tomorrow lunch time, and this mornings appearence on clown finance TV was somewhat bizarre. Williams was proudly offering a T-shirt to Liesman.
There is no question about it, when it comes to data, the only real data the Fed cares about is the level of the US equity indexes.
If we are to see a rate cut, the Fed will clearly want to see another wave higher in the US market, to offer at least a little bit extra downside buffer to the bull maniacs.
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*I am keeping an eye on Gold, which is seeing minor chop... broader formation remains a large bearish H/S formation from last November.
Hourly cycle is getting close to maxing out (if not already)... some degree of weakness later this afternoon/Tuesday morning weakness look probable.
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back soon
11.32am.. Gold snaps lower... I've got a tight stop.. looking to get kicked!
11.34am.. EXITED GLD-short... will look to re-short on any bounce :)
US equities start the week with some minor chop, sp'500 +1pt @ 2117. Metals are a little higher, Gold +$2, but looks vulnerable as ever. With the USD +0.1% in the DXY 94.90s, Oil is battling to stay positive, +0.2%.
sp'60min
Summary
*it is very notable that the hourly cycle is offering new historic highs in the immediate term, we could be trading the sp'2130s before most realise it.
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First soft support is sp'2112... a move back under 2100 looks unlikely this week, unless some 'spooky' Greek news.
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notable weakness: AAPL, -0.8%
Still... broadly bullish though. Or maybe you'd like to buy a negative rate EU bond?
Good morning. Futures are a touch lower, sp -2pts, we're set to open at 2114. Metals are a little higher, Gold +$3, with Silver +0.2%. With the USD +0.4% in the DXY 95s, Oil is a touch higher, +0.1%.
sp'daily5
Summary
Well, we're already into mid May, and markets remain broadly bullish.
With the PBOC (people's bank of China) cutting rates for the third time this year, -25bps to 5.1%, Asia markets are getting an extra kick higher.
It would seem the Shanghai comp' recently floored in the 4100s, and is now on a straight run to challenge the giant 5K threshold. Considering the price action of the past year, 5K by late June is actually viable, although clearly more likely in July/August.
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As for the US market, sp'2140s remain a valid target in the immediate term.
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Doom chat, Hunter with Williams
Dare I suggest that Williams remains stuck on the same mis-guided crazy train as he has done since before the 2008 crash. Its the same old 'dollar collapse, hyperinflation, Gold/Silver is insurance against inflation' mantra.
