Thursday 8 February 2018

Ugly Thursday

US equity indexes closed powerfully lower, sp -100pts at 2581, notably breaking the Tuesday morning low of 2593. Dow -1032pts (4.1%) at 23860. Nasdaq comp' -274pts (3.9%) at 6777. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -3.8% and -2.9% respectively. The VIX settled +20.7% at 33.46.




US equity indexes opened a little choppy, but then started to slide... and just kept on falling. It was frankly... a damn ugly day, with the sp' breaking the Tuesday morning low of 2593, settling at 2581. This is 291pts (10.1%) below the Jan' high of 2872. We're seeing a main market correction for the first time since Jan/Feb'2016.

With equities powerfully lower, volatility naturally picked up. However, its notable that the VIX settlement in the 33s, is way below the Monday afternoon high of 46.34. Its one of a number of divergences, that subtly suggest that the most bearish equity downside was on Monday afternoon.

I can understand if some are getting seriously spooked, and wondering if we're in some kind of far larger crash wave. All of this... sparked by mainstream chatter about average earnings +2.9%, and the US 10yr >2.80%. I will add, even yours truly is starting to get just a little bit twitchy.

Bonus chart: China, monthly

The Shanghai comp' is currently -6.3% at 3262, the lowest level since Aug'2017. Are the PBOC on holiday or something? China bulls should be desperate to see a recovery to at least settle February above the 10MA in the low 3300s.

Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EST) @

Goodnight from London

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