Saturday 11 August 2018

Weekend update - US equity indexes

It was a mixed week for US equity indexes, with net weekly changes ranging from +0.80% (R2K), +0.35% (Nasdaq comp'), -0.06% (Trans), -0.25% (sp'500), -0.59% (Dow), to -0.85% (nyse comp'). Near term outlook offers a s/t cooling of 2-3%, before resuming upward.

Lets take our regular look at six of the main US indexes (monthly candle charts)


The sp' broke a new multi-month high of 2863, but settled net lower for the week by -0.25% to 2830. The s/t outlook offers cooling to the 2760s, before resuming upward. More broadly, the m/t trend from early 2016 remains strong. Note underlying macd (blue bar histogram) cycle, currently ticking upward for a second month. Further, note the key 10MA at 2722.

Big target remains the 2950/3047 zone, where there will be multiple aspects of resistance. Whilst my original year end target was 3245, after the late Jan>early April price action, I would be surprised to see a break >3047 before year end.

Nasdaq comp'

The Nasdaq settled the week +0.35% to 7839. The m/t trend remains powerfully bullish, as regardless of any s/t cooling, the 8000s look due, whether by late August... or not until September.


The mighty Dow broke a multi-month high of 25692, but settled the week net lower by -0.59% to 25313. Note upper monthly bollinger, which is currently offering new historic highs in the 26800s. The equity bears should be desperate for a monthly close under the key 10MA, currently at 24785. That does not look likely before October.

NYSE comp'

The master index was the laggard this week, with a net decline of -0.85%. More broadly, its very notable that price momentum seen via the macd (blue bar histogram) cycle has been fractionally negative for the past three months. It does merit as a 'mild concern'.


The second market leader saw a net weekly gain of 0.8% to 1686. More broadly, the R2K is net higher for a sixth consecutive month. New historic highs (>1708) look extremely probable.


The 'old leader' broke a multi-month high of 11253, but settled net lower for the week by -0.06% to 11090. S/t bearish, with rather easy downside of around 3%. The tranny has been helped via a six week cooling wave in WTIC. Any renewed strength in oil - as seems due into late summer, will be a drag on the tranny, but that doesn't mean the index/sector will be net lower.


Two indexes were net higher, with four net lower.

The Nasdaq comp' and the R2K were notably strong, whilst the Dow and nyse comp' were the laggards.

The s/t outlook offers cooling of 2-3%, but the m/t trend is unquestionably bullish, with a series of higher highs and higher lows.

YTD performance:

The Nasdaq continues to lead the way, currently net higher by 13.5%, the sp'500 +6.0%, with the broader nyse comp' lagging at +0.3%.

Looking ahead

Key earnings: HD, M, CSCO, WMT, AMAT, NVDA, and DE

M -
T - Import/export prices
W - Retail sales, empire state manu', product/costs, indust' prod', bus' invent', housing market index, and the EIA pet' report.
T - Weekly jobs, housing starts, phil' fed
F - Consumer sent', leading indicators.  *OPEX*

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Have a good weekend

*the next post on this page will likely appear 5pm EDT on Monday.