It would appear US equities are just going to keep battling higher for some weeks. A significant wave higher - at least into early August, seems very likely, and that will surely take the sp' into the 1700s. The only issue is whether there will be any significant downside at all later this year.
sp'weekly8 - near term outlook
Summary
Another 8pts added to the sp'500, and we're already at 1640, a clear 90pts higher, in just ten trading days. Pretty incredible really, although its not like we've not seen this degree of rally already this year.
At the current rate, we will be in the mid 1700s by the end of this month. As it is, I'm sure we'll get some kind of sideways chop for a bit, with the 1700s far more likely in August, than July.
How high can this nonsense go?
Many months ago, I put together a number of 'hyper-bullish' charts. Broadly, they are all looking for a high in late 2015/early 2016 (largely based on the ECM cycle of Armstrong). At a minimum, the sp' would be 2000, if not 2500, even 3000.
Of course, those latter target levels are currently in the 'crazy talk' realm, but then, just 2 years ago, who would have thought we would be comfortably trading in the sp'1600s?
What does seem clear, from a pure price formation, the recent downside from May'22, has produced a very large bull flag. Based on the previous flags, there is little reason why we won't rally at least into August, if not for a few months further.
Looking ahead
There is no real econ-data tomorrow of note. However, there is a mid-sized QE of around $3bn, that should be enough to keep the market propped up.
*I remain on the sidelines, but will be looking to pick up an index-long block early Tuesday. As things are, I don't expect to be launching any new index-shorts until August..at the earliest.
Goodnight from London
