VIX cools for a fifth consecutive day

Whilst US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, the VIX remained broadly subdued, settling -1.6% at 13.79. Near term outlook threatens the sp'2060/80 zone, which might equate to a brief foray to the 12s.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

*the fifth consecutive net daily decline in the VIX.
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Suffice to add, VIX remains under rather powerful downward pressure, as equities continue to battle upward.

A move to the 12s now looks probable.. if WTIC oil 43/44s, with sp'2060/80 zone.

First upside target in next wave will be the key 20 threshold.

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more later.. on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp +2pts @ 2051. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled u/c and -0.3% respectively. Near term outlook threatens the sp'2070/80 zone, along with Nasdaq comp' 4900.


sp'60min

Summary

*closing hour action: micro chop... and offering absolutely nothing to those equity bears seeking renewed downside within the near term.
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Little to add.. on what was a pretty subdued day.

Aside from a few kooky 'rogue prints', a day when the bears remained powerless, and the broader market continues to claw its way higher.

Based on current price action, there seems little reason why we won't see the sp'2060s, whether tomorrow or Wednesday.

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more later... on the VIX

3pm update - tech grinding upward

Many tech stocks continue to break new cycle highs, with the Nasdaq comp' +15pts @ 4811. There is extremely important resistance at the 4900 threshold. Any sustained action above the 5K threshold would effectively trash the broader bearish outlook.


Nasdaq comp', daily

Summary

Certainly, that gap zone, with the 4900 threshold will be tough to break and hold above.

We'll know.. soon enough.

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notable weakness... TVIX, daily

Ugly.. breaking into the $4s.. the lowest level...ever.
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back at the close.

2pm update - fractional new cycle highs

With the equity bears remaining powerless, the market continues to lean on the upside, with fractional new cycle highs in most indexes. VIX remains very subdued in the low 14s. Oil is +0.4% in the $41s, and that is no doubt helping to prop up broader market sentiment.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

Little to add, on what is a very quiet day.

For the moment, I see absolutely zero reason for equity bears to be involved. Conversely, equity bulls should surely be raising their stops as the market uses up another day in this cycle.... and this cycle won't last forever.
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notable weakness... TVIX, -7% @ $5.05...   the earlier 'rogue print' of $4.50s remains 'curious'. For now, I'll leave it at that.

1pm update - metals and miners

Whilst the broader equity market is largely churning, there is notable weakness in the precious metals, with Gold -$9 in the $1240s. The related mining stocks are naturally cooling, with the ETF of GDX -0.5%. Further weakness seems probable.


GLD, daily2

GDX, daily2

Summary

Suffice to add, we're barely seeing any sustained retrace after a powerful breakout ramp that began last December.

Broader outlook into the spring/summer looks bullish... inverse to (still) viable downside in the main equity market.
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stay awake...if you can.

12pm update - the churn continues

US equities remain in micro churn mode, with further upside extremely probable for at least another few days. VIX remains broadly subdued in the low 14s. Metals are mixed, Gold -$7, whilst Silver +0.3%. Oil is battling to hold minor gains of 0.2% in the $41s.


sp'60min

Summary

Little to add.

Price action offers nothing to the equity bears in the near term... it'd seem we'll just keep on grinding upward.

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Much like TVIX earlier... we have a rogue print on AAPL, seen on the 5min cycle, but no longer on the daily chart.

I guess you could say its a problem with stockcharts, but I'm guessing the algo-bots are somewhat twitchy this morning.
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time for lunch

11am update - kooky TVIX

US equities remain in micro chop mode, sp -5pts @ 2044. Ongoing price action does not favour the equity bears, and it still seems probable we'll see the sp'2070/80 zone, along with WTIC oil in the $44/45s. VIX remains broadly subdued, currently +4% in the 14s.


VIX'60min

Summary

*back.. earlier than expected.
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So... VIX is still in the low teens... whilst the indexes are holding together very well.

It is notable we have Fed officials Lockhart and Bullard today, and both could be the excuse for further upside across the next few days.

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notable 'rogue print' in TVIX, 5min

So.. we have seen the $4s already today. Hmm
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time to cook

10am update - opening micro chop

US equities open very subdued, and are already settling into micro chop mode. Underlying price pressure remains leaning to the upside, with the sp'2070/80 zone seemingly probable before next opportunity of a key rollover. Metals are weak, Gold -$8. Oil is battling to build gains, +0.8% in the $41s.


sp'weekly1b

R2K, daily

Summary

*it is notable that the upper weekly bollinger is now starting to contract by around 10pts a week.
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There is not much to add, on what is likely to be a pretty subdued day.

R2K: we have a new cycle high of 1103, and the 200dma in the 1140s looks probable.. .which would equate to sp'2070/80.

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notable strength, TSLA, daily

Last Friday's close was pretty definitive, and we're now seemingly headed for $245/50 zone in the near term. For the equity bears out there, TSLA should be a pretty scary chart.
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notable weakness...

Despite the VIX being a little higher, TVIX continues to melt...

For the moment.. still seems zero reason to get involved. If Oil $44/45, equities will grind up.. the VIX will remain subdued, and TVIX will be in the $4s. Six weeks ago.. the $7s seemed a bold call.

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back at 12pm

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. US equity futures are fractionally lower, sp -1pt, we're set to open at 2048. USD is +0.1% in the DXY 95.10s. Metals are weak, Gold -$9, with Silver -0.1%. Oil is -0.5% in the $41s.


sp'60min

Summary

With the central banks out of the way until next month, the equity bears really need to cool the market into end month.

However, considering oil - which looks headed to the $44/45s by late Wed' morning, further equity upside to the 2070/80 zone look probable.

.. but really... the line must be drawn there. Any daily closes >2080... and the broader bearish scenario will have to be dropped.

A March near sp'2K.. if not under, is pretty damn important.

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Fed/Gold chat, Hunter with Kirby



As ever, make of it what you will. I sure don't agree with all of it.
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Overnight action

Japan: CLOSED
China: +2.1% @ 3018
Germany: currently +0.5% @ 10,001

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Have a good Monday