Thursday 17 November 2016

Awaiting the Yellen

US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp -3pts @ 2176. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.7% and u/c respectively. VIX settled +2.6% @ 13.72. Near term outlook still threatens cooling to the mid sp'2140s. Broadly though, underlying price action remains strong.




Another not particularly exciting day in market land. Indeed, last week's wild price moves, probably won't be seen again for many months... maybe a few years.

VIX remains subdued in the low teens. At best.. if sp'2140s, the 17s look viable. The key 20 threshold looks out of range until at least mid December, when the fed will raise rates.

Copper, monthly

Price action in copper remains interesting, having cooled from $2.73 to 2.47. The break above descending trend/resistance that stretches back to 2011 is extremely significant. Another push towards the $3 threshold looks a given.


More fedspeak

Thursday morning will see the CEO of print central, aka Yellen, give testimony to the US house. That would be an ideal excuse for the market to sell significantly lower... if briefly.

Perhaps we'll hear some questions from some of the representatives about fiscal stimulus - via Trump infrastructure plans, rather than via monetary policy. In any case... it'll be something to watch tomorrow. Any weakness in Yellen - which is always a threat, would be the excuse for a sig' wave lower, ahead of the Friday opex.

Goodnight from London