VIX still cooling

With equities closing moderately mixed, the VIX remained broadly subdued, settling lower for the sixth consecutive day, -0.7% @ 19.40 (intra high 20.32). Near term outlook offers opportunity of an equity retrace to the sp'1950s, which would likely equate to VIX 21/22s.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

Price structure on the hourly cycle is arguably a baby bull flag - relative to the bear flag on the equity hourly cycle.

Best guess... sp'1960/50s... with VIX 21/22.. then renewed equity upside into next week... the sp'2040/60 zone remains 'best bull case'.. and that would likely equate to VIX 16/15s.

*for now, I have no interest in meddling in the VIX.. which looks set to remain low for at least another 5-7 trading days.

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more later... on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equities closed broadly weak, sp -7pts @ 1979 (intra high 1991). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -1.0% and -0.7% respectively. Near term outlook offers further opportunity of another moderate wave lower to the sp'1950s, but broadly.. the 2000s look a given next week.


sp'60min

Summary

*price structure on the hourly chart is a very clear baby bear flag... offering downside to the 1960/50s tomorrow.
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Without question, it felt a very tiresome Tuesday.... I guess I'm just still reeling from last Friday's crazy ass turnaround.

Really, was sp'1871 a key marginal higher low.. and go higher into next year?

Anyway.. first.. need to see how market trades once it does break >2000.. but that now seems more viable next week.

Spiderman, Batman.. and other crazies

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What am I doing?

Well, I can't be short.. none of the daily/weekly cycles look good right now. I'd actually consider a moderate long if sp'1950s tomorrow.. but not sure what to get involved in.  Will sleep on it.

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more later... on the VIX

3pm update - chop into the close

US equities are set to close moderately weak, with the sp -4pts @ 1982.. having earlier hit 1991. VIX remains broadly subdued, -0.4% in the 19s. With the USD -0.7% in the 95.40s, there is some strength in commodities.. Gold +$11, with Oil +4.4% in the $48s.


sp'60min

USO, daily2

Summary

*if tomorrow's EIA report can please the market.. then WTIC will be testing $50.. with USO up another 3-4%.
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Little to add.

A day of relative chop... further equity weakness is probable tomorrow... but from a trading perspective, it looks a lousy trade.

A move above the FOMC (minutes) high of sp'2020 looks due.
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back at the close

2pm update - still tiresome

US equities see a micro wave to the upside.. and whether you want to call it a B wave, 2, or whatever.. a retrace appears underway from a cycle peak of sp'1991... to the 1950s. VIX is seeing the usual minor chop, +1.5% in the 19.80s. Any sustained action >22/23 looks unlikely this week.


sp'60min

vix'60min

Summary

Utterly tiresome.

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*if we're in the 1950s tomorrow.. or Thursday.... what do I do then?

Pick up a moderate long position, in what?   I like DIS, AAPL, but both of those remain weaker than the main market.

INTC... but that has seen a powerful ramp to the $31s already...  I am not in the mood to chase that one up.
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notable weakness, airlines (no doubt pressured via Oil), DAL -3.3% @ $45.40s.. still a full $2.00 above my short-EXIT.  I suppose its a viable short if main market maxed out... with DAL no higher than 47/48.

1pm update - vaguely interesting

The continuing weakness from sp'1991 is only vaguely interesting.. and even if we see the 1950s tomorrow, it should make for no consolation for those still resolutely holding short from last week. VIX +2%.. back above the 20 threshold.. but still 20% below last Friday mornings high.


sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

Little to add.

A retrace of a 98pt hyper-ramp is clearly underway... obvious 38%.. around the gap zone... viable Wed/Thursday.

Tiresome day...  and it seems most of you out there are in agreement.. and don't even have your screens active.

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notable weakness, NFLX -4.3% @ $106s....    most of the momo stocks having issues today.
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back at 2pm

12pm update - moderate weakness

US equities continue to cool... with a break of the hourly 10MA. For now though.. there appears little chance of significant/sustained downside power. At best, the sp'1960/50s before resuming higher. The sp'2000s still look a relatively easy target. Oil has built powerful gains of 3.7% in the $48s.


sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

Having hyper-ramped from sp'1893 on Friday morning to 1991 this morning... 98pts (across 14 trading hours)... a retrace is clearly not exactly a surprise.

There are clear gaps around sp'1950 and VIX 21... so.. right now.. that'd be the more natural level to hit.

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VIX update from Mr T.



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time for tea... and something.. cake?

11am update - just another tease

US equities cool from an early high of sp'1991 to 1979... along with VIX climbing from an early low of 18.82 to 19.77. However, this is likely just a minor tease to the equity bears before resuming higher to the sp'2000/2010 zone. Best case upside remains the 200dma in the 2060s.


sp'60min

Summary

Little to add.

I see zero reason for any of the bears to be getting involved right now.

China will reopen later tonight.. and considering the other world markets.. will likely see sig' gains.. and that will then offer the sp'2000s tomorrow.

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notable weakness, DAL, -1.4%

Things would get real interesting if it remains stuck under $48.

Higher oil, +3.2%.. is certainly not helping the airlines this morning.

10am update - opening chop

US equities open with minor chop... with underlying upward pressure... toward the psy' level of sp'2000. First soft support is the hourly 10MA...in the 1970s. VIX remains in cooling mode, the 18s look due this morning. Commodities are getting some help via weak USD, Gold +$11, with Oil +1.1%


sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

I do understand why some would feel its fine to short with things as overbought as they are... but the bigger daily/weekly cycles are increasingly favouring the bulls.

For the moment... I remain content to wait for the 2000s.

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notable strength: FCX, +4.5%... but really.. the company is a mess.. run by fools.

How desperate must FCX be for cash if they are willing to sell assets that cost them $9bn in 2012... a mere 3yrs later.. probably for 2-3bn ?

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Equity futures are a little lower, sp -6pts, we're set to open at 1981. USD is cooling, -0.3% in the DXY 95.80s. Gold +$3, whilst Oil is broadly flat in the $46s.


sp'60min

Dow, monthly2

Summary

*Dow, note the 10MA... the bull maniacs should be desperate for a monthly close in the 17400s... or the grander outlook remains bearish into early 2016.
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So.. a little overnight weakness, and perhaps we'll start cooling to the 1960/50s by Thursday.

Overall though, it looks overly risky to short, as daily/weekly upward momentum is increasingly stronger with each day.

The sp'2000s still look due in the near term... and there remains threat of 2040/60 zone.. before the next rollover.

To be clear, unlike some out there, I do NOT see new index highs late this year/early 2016. 

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Corp' news...

FCX has decided to offload its oil/gas servicing section... some 3/4yrs after buying it at the top of the market.

The entire board should be fired for gross incompetence.. but no... they won't. Instead, now they'll be congratulating themselves on their new asset disposal plan.

The stock is naturally, +3.5%... but still -70% from the levels of a year ago.

FCX, monthly

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Have a good Tuesday

Core resistance

With powerful Monday gains, there is now little doubt that the market is going to make a serious play to break back above core resistance of the 200dma (2060s).. and the even more important monthly 10MA (2040s). Indeed, a monthly close back above 2050... and 'normal service' will have indeed resumed.


sp'weekly7

sp'monthly1b

Summary

Little to add.

I'm still of the view that the market will be very vulnerable to another major wave lower.

Most critical of all.. can the market see a monthly close - whether Oct, Nov. or later, above the 10MA, currently in the 2040s?

Best guess... a FAIL in late Oct/early Nov... and then lower. Of course, Yellen, Draghi, and Abe, might have something to say about that.
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Looking ahead

Tuesday will see intl' trade data.
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Waving the white flag

Having seen further price action >sp'1950, I bailed at the open, and am now back on the sidelines. I'll likely stay that way for some days. I'd consider a 'moderate' long from the sp'1950s this Wed/Thursday.. if we retrace.. otherwise I'll wait to launch another short in the sp'2040/60 zone... although that might take a fair few weeks.

A rough day.. but I live to fight another day.

Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

US equity indexes settled powerfully higher, sp +35pts @ 1987. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 2.3% and 2.4% respectively. Near term outlook is for continued broad upside.. beyond the 50dma of 2000, the 2020 high, and to the 2040/60 zone.. where critical resistance lays.


sp'daily5

R2K

Trans

Summary

Suffice to note.. powerful Monday gains.. solidifying sp'1871 as a marginally higher low.

Regardless of any retrace to the sp'1960/50s, the market is set to battle into the sp'2000s.
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a little more later...