Monday 26 March 2018

Provisional floor

US equity indexes closed very significantly higher, sp +70pts (2.7%) at 2658. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 2.1% and 2.2% respectively. VIX settled -15.4% at 21.03. Near term outlook offers further upside across the remaining three days of the week/month/Q1.




US equities opening significantly higher, which was very impressive considering the moderately mixed Asian/European markets. There was some cooling from 2639 to 2617, but then the buyers appeared, with upside carrying across into late afternoon.

Volatility was naturally under pressure from the open, with the VIX settling in the low 21s. Its notable we have a long way to go, just to reach the mid teens.

Normal service resumes

The mainstream largely attributed today's gains to 'trade tensions ease'. Really? So.. err... what changed in US/international trade policy since last Friday? The answer of course is... nothing. Its just typical mis-atttribution at its finest. Cyclically, we were clearly s/t oversold, and due another up wave from the key 200dma. Its nothing much more complicated than that.

Ohh, and as for Facebook, its arguably washed out, having filled the 156/55 gap, and rebounding from around psy'150.

The obvious question is.... was last Friday a key low?

Last Friday does merit as a provisional floor, but I'm aware some of the more adept wave counters out there are seeking one final flushout. The situation is analogous to the gains of Feb'6th, with the 8th seeing another rollover, with a capitulation and hyper spike low - from 2532 on Feb'9th.

If Tuesday also settles net higher, it will arguably fully confirm that last Friday was a key marginally higher low, from just above the 200dma.

Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EST) @

Goodnight from London
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