Thursday 26 November 2015

King Dollar flirting with DXY 100

Whilst equities saw a day of nano scale price chop, there was notable strength in the USD, which briefly traded back above the giant psy' level of DXY 100 (intra high 100.23). A November monthly close >100 looks a little difficult.

USD, monthly

USD, weekly


Price structure is a clear giant bull flag, as better seen on the weekly/monthly charts.

The DXY 100 threshold is clearly huge resistance.. and we did see some notable cooling from DXY 100 today.

Re: Interest rates...

If no rate rise... USD will dramatically cool.... there is little doubt of this.

If a rate rise... USD might still see a brief cooling, as a 'sell the news' event. Broadly though, the USD should merely put in a higher low (likely 96/95) in Dec/Jan, before breaking and holding DXY 100.


Looking ahead

Thursday: US markets are closed, but the rest of the world will certainly be open.

Friday: no scheduled data.... with the market closing early at 1pm

Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

US equity indexes closed mostly subdued, sp -0.3pts @ 2088. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled u/c and +0.8% respectively. Near term outlook offers further upside into the 2100s, with new historic highs in the sp', Dow, and Nasdaq before year end.




Suffice to add... a very natural day of nano scale price chop... as most traders were leaving for the Thanksgiving break.

The sp'500 looks set for the 2100s... the only issue is when we'll see the 2150/70 zone.. not if.

Closing update from Riley

a little more later...