Volatility lower for a fourth day

With US equities climbing for a fourth consecutive day, the VIX was naturally lower, settling lower by a very significant -13.4% @ 16.08. Near term outlook is for continued equity strength, which will likely equate to VIX slipping into the 15/14 zone.


VIX'daily3

Summary

Little to add.

It remains a case of whether the current equity wave is merely a 'crazy bounce'... or if sp'1820 was a key cyclical low.. and a mere cruel tease to the doomer bears.

Right now, I'll keep in mind the bigger monthly cycles, which continue to warn of trouble... so long as we stay under sp'1970.
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more later.. on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equities closed higher for the fourth consecutive day, sp +37pts @ 1941 (intra high 1942). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled significantly higher by 3.1% and 1.6% respectively. Near term outlook is bullish to the sp'1950/60s.


sp'60min

Summary

Unquestionably, another day for the equity bulls, and we're already getting close to levels where even the most diehard bears are going to need to be ready to wave a giant white flag.

There are many aspects of resistance in the 1960s, and (at least to me), any daily closes in the 1970s would negate the idea of a bigger bearish correction before year end.
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more later.. on the VIX

3pm update - holding gains into the close

US equity indexes look set to close significantly higher for the fourth consecutive day, with a likely close in the sp'1930s. VIX is confirming that once again 'everything is fine' according to Mr Market, -10% in the 16.60s.


sp'daily5

Summary

Suffice to say... a tiresome day for the bears.

The only issue now is whether we put in a lower high.. or just keep on battling higher.

Considering the recent style of price action - not seen since 2011.. with VIX in the low 30s, I'm still looking for a lower high. Really though, bears need to hold the current bounce to the sp'1960s.

Any daily closes in the 1970s.. and it is surely white flag waving time.
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Notable strength: the oil/gas drillers, RIG +3%, SDRL +6%, although both remain hugely under the summer highs.
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back at the close.

2pm update - freight train ramp

US equities cotinnue to slowly climb, with sp'1935, and the VIX -11% in the mid 16.30s. Oil has turned lower, -0.5%. Metals are holding minor gains, Gold +$4. Near term outlook is bullish into the 1950/60s.


spdaily5

Summary

Little to add, on what is day'4 to the upside.

Notable strength: DRYS +6%, back in the low $2s.

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... back at 3pm... if I can stay awake.

12pm update - building gains

US equities continue to build rather significant gains, sp'500 +1.5% in the 1930s, with a crushed VIX -10% in the mid 16s. There looks to be another 4-6 days in the current up wave, with the bears last stand... in the 1960s.


sp'daily5

sp'weekly7

Summary

*highly notable that the weekly candle.. has turned blue.. clarifying last Wed' as a short term low. The weekly 10MA in the 1960s is key resistance.
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So... everything is fine again in market land. Across just 5 days, we're swung from 1820 to the 1930s.. with the VIX effectively being cut in half.

Now it comes down to a matter of what you think the recent down wave was. Was it just a random down wave to wash out some of the weaker bulls (with sp'2100s to come).. or was it the initial wave down of a much larger multi-month drop?

I'm still with the latter... unless we see some daily closes in the 1970s.
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Notable strength: airlines, DAL +3.5%, UAL +5.0%.. now that the Ebola crisis has been resolved in the 'civilised world'.. well, thats what I hear on clown finance TV.

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time for a long lunch... back at 2pm.

10am update - day four up

US equities continue on the climb from last Wed' low of sp'1820...  now higher by 5.1% across just 5 trading days. VIX is reflecting the calmer market, -9% in the 16s... almost cut in half. Metals are holding moderate gains, Gold +$6, whilst Oil is higher by 0.9%.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

Suffice to say... bulls continue the rout, and the mainstream is getting back to overly confident.

Given another 4-5 days... this should be fully burnt out, at best 1950/60 zone, where there are many aspects of resistance.

Notable strength: Oil/gas drillers, RIG +2.4%, SDRL +5.0%
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*I'm tired...back at 12pm

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning... from a windy city. Futures are higher, sp +14pts, we're set to open at 1918, well above the 200 dma of 1906, and just a little under the old broken 1926/25 floor. Metals are a touch higher, Gold +$2, whilst Oil is flat.


sp'daily5

Summary

Well, I'm frankly exhausted.. I've had a long day already... and its been a bit of a stormy morning in the great city...

see: BBC news: remnants of Gonzalo

I will endeavour to be around, but if I miss an hour or two..... its because I'm asleep.
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As for Mr Market, well, futures were sp -14pts earlier, and now we've swung 28pts.. for seemingly no reason.

It would seem we'll just keep clawing higher into next week, before the next major rollover... but more on that later.

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TECH NOTE...

Firefox has just issued a new v.33 update, and it completely FAILS unless you also update the graphics card driver (well, at least for Nvidia cards).

Maybe one or two of you out there might find that useful this week.

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*notable strength, post earnings... AAPL, +1.9% in the 101s

The bounce continues

US equities continue to climb from last Wednesday's low of sp'1820, and we're now a clear 4% higher in the low 1900s. Even a bounce to the 1950/60 zone will not do enough to reverse the technical damage recently done to the bigger monthly cycles.


sp'weekly7

Summary

... slow day.... suffice to say.. despite the daily net gains, we start another week with a red candle on the weekly 'rainbow' cycle.

It should be a clear reminder of the underlying price momentum.
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Looking ahead

The only data due is existing home sales (10am).

*there is QE of around $1bn
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Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

US indexes closed significantly higher, sp +17pts @ 1904. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 1.0% and 1.1% respectively. Near term outlook is inclined to the upside, with continued gains into the 1920/50 zone.


sp'daily5

Dow, daily

Summary

Little to add, on what was a rather tedious day.

Next resistance is the 200 dma of sp'1906, but rather more important, the 50dma (1966) which is rolling over, and as many recognise, will be offering a death cross in November.
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a little more later....