VIX moderately lower

With equities closing moderately mixed, the VIX settled -7.4% @ 15.29 (intra high 16.96). Near term outlook offers renewed equity weakness.. at least to the 200dma in the low sp'2060s. If sp'2020s, that will equate to VIX in the low 20s... briefly.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

So, a net daily decline, with the VIX struggling to break/hold the upper teens.

Despite today's decline, a brief foray above the key 20 threshold looks due... early next week.... with threat of the sp'2020s.. before renewed upside.

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more later... on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equities closed moderately mixed, sp +3pts @ 2081 (intra low 2069). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled u/c and +0.3% respectively. Near term outlook is for a test of the 200dma (2063).. with the 2020s viable next week.


sp'60min

Summary

closing hour action: micro chop... leaning on the downside, but then another nano spike upward into the close.
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Aside from the action in a few stocks like AAPL and TSLA, it was a somewhat tedious day.

A test of the 200dma in the low sp'2060s - a mere 3% below the recent high 2116, looks a given.

The more natural retrace target of the 2020s looks out of range until next week. As today showed.. the dip buyers are still out there. Or should that be the central banks?
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Luckeeeeeeeeeeeee

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more later... on the VIX

3pm update - a little tedious

US equities are a little higher, with the sp' having battled from 2069 to 2082. Ongoing price action remains weak though, and further downside looks due into early next week. The sp'2020s would make for a very natural retrace of the hyper-ramp from 1871-2116.


sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

*have re-drawn the bear flag on the equity chart. So long as we don't break/hold above 2100, the default trade (at least in the VERY short term) remains to the downside.
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Regardless of the exact close, current price action should be nothing for the equity bulls to get overly excited about.

... but then.. neither can the bears hold any hope of sustained price action under the sp'2K threshold.
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In many ways... its a case of turn off ya screens until next week.. and see where we are then.
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notable weakness...

AAPL, daily

Particularly weak on chatter of reduced component orders (thanks for the reminder KZ).

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back at the close.

2pm update - more of the same

US equities remain stuck in minor chop mode, with the sp'500 u/c @ 2078. The USD is cooling from earlier highs, now +0.2% in the DXY 99.10s. Metals remain weak, Gold -$2, with Silver -2.0%, and that is not helping the related mining stocks, the ETF of GDX -2.3%.


sp'60min

GDX, daily

Summary

re: metals/miners. Broadly.. both weak.. as King dollar remains strong.
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With the sp' back to flat... probability of a daily close in the 2060s is again waning.

Again, those seeking sustained action <sp'2K should recognise that the underlying pressure is strongly to the upside.

Even if sp'2020s are hit next week, it will merely make for the first higher low since the recent peak of 2116.
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notable weakness: TSLA, -2.5%, AAPL -3.2%, FCX -5.1%

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back at 3pm

1pm update - remaining choppy

US equities continue to see minor chop... clearly leaning on the weaker side. A fifth consecutive net daily decline looks probable.. somewhere in the sp'2060s. USD is holding +0.4% in the DXY 99.30s. Metals are weakening, Gold -$1, with Silver -1.1%. 


sp'daily5

Summary

Little to add.

The 200dma of sp'2063 looks an easy target. To me, the only issue is whether we'll get close to the 50dma next week.

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notable lunch hour spike in Mallinckrodt (MNK), as an equity bio-bear (Mr Left, of Citreon) appears on clown finance TV, only for the market to spike the stock from the 54s to 59s in minutes.

I will only add, I've never traded any bio-stock, I see the whole sector as too crazy for even the best of retail investors. Only a very few companies - of the intl' pharma cartel, are profitable. The rest.... mostly, empty shells.

The ongoing action in Valeant (VRX) remains pretty entertaining though.
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back at 2pm

12pm update - choppy weakness

US equities are choppy, but remain leaning on the weaker side. A test of the 200dma of sp'2063 is viable within the immediate term. USD is holding gains of 0.4% in the DXY 99.40s. Metals are mixed, Gold +$2, with Silver -0.9%. Oil continues to see minor swings, +0.8%.


sp'60min

Summary

A fifth consecutive net daily decline looks due.... and if things unravel this afternoon, the low 2060s are well within range.
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notable weakness...

TSLA, daily

Having got stuck at the 200dma.. on lousy earnings.. reality is again returning to the stock, -3.8% in the $217s. Oh, and yes, a death cross is imminent for TSLA.

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VIX update from Mr T.



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time for lunch

11am update - baby bear flag confirmed

Price action remains somewhat messy, but the baby bear flag seen on the hourly equity cycle has already been broken, with the door wide open to the sp'2060/50s. USD is notably holding gains of 0.4% in the DXY 99.40s, and that is keeping pressure on the metals (Gold -$4), and Oil, +0.6%... if somewhat choppy.


sp'60min

UUP, weekly

Summary

*re: UUP, a giant bull flag... and its already breaking upward... a year end close >DXY 100 really doesn't look a bold target.
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So.. a bit of a messy opening 90 minutes, but price action/structure broadly favours the equity bears into next week.

The sp'2020s remain a realistic target for next week, before resuming higher into the Dec' FOMC.

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notable weakness: AAPL, -2.5% in the $117s

FCX -4.9%... miners under pressure... as king dollar remains a core problem in commodity land.

TSLA -2.9%,... the loss making car company.... does Mr Musk want to ever turn a profit?
TWTR -2.0%... the momo train wreck remains broadly weak.
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time to shop... back soon

10am update - opening weakness

US equities open a little lower, and look set for a test of the 200dma (sp'2063) today. With the USD +0.4% in the DXY 99.40s, the metals are under pressure, Gold -$4, and that is not helping the related miners, GDX -2.5%.


sp'60min

GLD, daily

Summary

*metals/miners... same old problem... holding within a broader down trend.. with the USD being a periodic downward pressure.
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Price structure on the smaller hourly equity cycle remains a clear bear flag... a break to the low sp'2060s looks due. A daily close in the 2050s looks possible, but sustained action <2050 looks difficult this week.

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notable weakness....

AAPL, daily

I'm not aware of any reason why AAPL is leading the way lower, but cyclically, it has been due to fall anyway.
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stay tuned.... or something.

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. US equity futures are moderately lower, sp -6pts, we're set to open at 2072. A test of the 200dma (2063) looks probable today. Metals continue to remain mixed, Gold +$1, whilst Silver -0.4%. Oil is +0.4% in the $43s.


sp'weekly1b

sp'60min

Summary

So... another day where we shall open a little lower.

Looking at the weekly chart, it'll be difficult to see anything more than a net weekly decline of >2.5%... so... no lower than around 2050 by the Friday close.

The 2020s look far more viable next week.
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notable early movers..

AAPL -1.9% in the 118s
SDRL -1.3%.... a battered stock, struggling as energy prices remain broadly weak.
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Update from Mr C.



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Overnight Asia action

Japan: +0.1% @ 19671... as the BoJ are of course underpinning their entire market.
China: -0.2% @ 3640... clearly overbought in the short term, but then the communist leadership continue to restrain selling... 3400 is now strong support.
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Have a good Tuesday

China continues to recover

Like most other world equity markets, the Shanghai comp' didn't manage an Oct' close above the important 10MA, but it is continuing to recover, with a net Monday gain of 1.6% @ 3636. First target remains a monthly close in the 3800s by year end.


China, daily

China, monthly

Summary

How China - and other world equity markets, settle the year will be very important. The US market is leading the way higher, followed by Germany and China/Japan.

I'm guessing we'll see the Shanghai comp' back in the 4000s before most realise it... and then its a straight run to the 6000s by late 2016.

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Looking ahead

Tuesday will see import/export prices and wholesale trade.

*Fed official Evans will be speaking on US Govt' debt in the afternoon... I would imagine a number of 'US Govt' debt is under control' comments.
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Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

US equity indexes closed significantly lower, sp -20pts @ 2078 (intra low 2068). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -0.3% and -1.3% respectively. Near term outlook offers the 2020s, along with VIX in the low 20s. Sustained action <sp'2K looks out of range.


sp'daily5

Trans

Summary

Little to add.

All US equity indexes appear to have very clear short term peaks.. with the sp' maxing out at 2116.

Best guess... sp'2020s.. before resuming higher into December.
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a little more later...