Friday 11 July 2014

Volatility melts into the weekend

Despite minor weak chop across much of the day, the VIX was only briefly higher, but saw a rather typical fall into the close, settling -4.0% @ 12.08.  Near term outlook is for VIX to slip back into the 11/10s, the 9s look likely if sp'2025/50 zone by early September.




There is little to add.

Across the week, the VIX gained a significant 17%, but still... VIX 12s remain a very low level.

Even the mid teens look unlikely for some weeks..perhaps... months.

more later... on the indexes

Closing Brief

US indexes closed moderately higher, sp +2pts @ 1967. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled by +0.3% and -0.1% respectively. The broader trend remains to the upside, with sp'1990/2000s are on the menu for next week.



I'm tired.. so...I think I'll wrap this up....

Have a good weekend everyone.

The usual updates to wrap up the week, across the evening.

*the weekend update will be on the US monthly indexes

3pm update - melting into the weekend

US equities are melting higher into the weekend. A daily close in the sp'1970s is still viable, although is certainly not necessary for the bulls. VIX is similarly in melt the downside.. a close in the 11s is just about possible.



Not much to add.

Aside from yesterdays opening drop, it hasn't been a particularly bad week for the US markets.

Sure, we're going to close with net weekly declines, but...the market as a whole, is broadly fine.

I'm tired....back at the close.

3.40pm.. Market trying to break into the 1970s... which is pretty impressive.

We have an arguable break of downtrend....and maybe that is why we're seeing a bit of an extra kick higher.

1pm update - sleepy Friday

US equities remain subdued, a touch of weak chop, but the underlying upside is no doubt still there. Despite a few negative indexes, VIX is already in melt mode, fractionally lower in the mid 12s. Notable strength in AMZN.



Little to add... on what is a pretty quiet day.

Notable strength in AMZN, +4% or so...

I guess buying all those new computer parts is starting to feed through?

A daily close above the key 200 day MA looks likely early next week.. which will open up $370 by end July. I suppose if earnings come in better than expected, next key level is $380.

back at 3pm

12pm update - churning a floor

US equities continue in the process of churning a floor, with the sp' currently stuck in the 1959/65 zone. A late afternoon climb into the 1970s is still viable, but regardless... equity bears are lacking any downside power today. VIX remains fractionally lower.



So... the indexes are seeing some minor weak chop, and for is turning out to be a day of nothing.

Certainly, there seems no chance of breaking the 1952 low, the only issue is whether we close in the 1960s... or 70s.

On any fair outlook, the sp'1990/2000s look highly probable.. whether next week or a little further out... makes no difference.

VIX update from Mr T.

time to check on the cheerleaders on clown finance TV.

11am update - minor upside chop into the weekend

The opening declines were indeed a little tease to the bears, and Mr Market looks set for somewhat gentle upside chop into the weekend. A weekly close in the sp'1970s remains very viable. VIX is melting lower, the 11s look due.



Little to add....


Update from Mr Carboni

I'd agree with Oscar on the metals, and that has bullish implications for those long the GDX

Notable strength in AMZN +4.3%.. more on that later.

time for a somewhat early lunch

10am update - opening tease

Mr Market starts the end of the week with a minor tease to the equity bears. The Thursday low of sp'1952 looks reasonably secure, and a weekly close in the 1970s still looks probable, with a VIX in the 12.25/11.75 zone.



Not expecting anything much of today.

No QE, no notable econ-data...

The miners are notably higher.. GDX +1.4%

GDX looks set for the 30/35 zone across the next few weeks. Eyes on Copper prices... and FCX.

time to shop

10.42am  the minor chop continues.. but notably... VIX is already red...

There is no power on the downside.

Whats up with AMZN +4% ?   

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are moderately higher, sp +3pts, we're set to open at 1967. Metals are similarly higher, Gold +$2. Equities look set to climb slowly higher into the weekend, with a close somewhere in the sp'1970s.



First, keep in mind that we closed last Friday @ 1985...


So... for the week so far, we're around 21pts lower, -1% decline.

Certainly, a Friday gain of 10pts would help reduce the weekly loss to just 0.5%. Although yes, the R2K will still likely see a net weekly decline of -2%.

All things considered, price action still doesn't support the equity bears. Besides, I'm still seeking a sub'4 wave..and that might not even start until Sept/Oct.

*watching the airlines today, all the usual suspects should probably continue climbing, AA, DAL, and notably... UAL.

8.59am... indexes fractionally lower, sp -1pt.

Regardless of any minor chop this morning...the inclination should be to the upside... with 1990/2000s viable next week.

9.42am. Mr Market teasing the bears at the open with sp'1960.

Nothing has changed

Equities saw the biggest opening drop in around three months, but not surprisingly, there was something of an intraday recovery. The broader trends are utterly unchanged by what was a relatively minor down wave. The Sp'2000s remain on the menu.



*again, I want to note, don't get fixated on the timing of sub waves 3-5. The broader target is now the sp'2100s.. and it will likely take until next spring for that to be achieved.

Lets get this clear to start with...

I did note a bear flag on the hourly chart yesterday afternoon, although I was overly dismissive of it. The fact we opened sharply lower - on the Portuguese bank news, was arguably just an excuse by Mr Market for a secondary (call it 3, C.. or whatever) wave.. ahead of the weekend.

In the bigger picture....absolutely nothing has changed.

Again, I will highlight a very viable scenario/count from poster 'Eddy'.


The most notable aspect is that at the current rate of increase (40pts a month), it will take until next February to hit the sp'2100s.

Looking ahead

The only notable aspect tomorrow... two fed officials on the loose.. whose comments might nudge the market a little.

*next sig' QE is not until next Thursday

Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

US equities opened sharply lower, but saw a recovery begin almost right from the open. The sp' rallied from a low of 1952.. settling -8pts @ 1964. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -0.2% and -1.0% respectively. Near term outlook is for renewed upside.





We have very clear reversal candles on the two leaders - Trans/R2K, and even the headline indexes (Dow, SP, Nasdaq) all saw similar intraday recoveries.

With a black-fail candle on the daily VIX cycle, the equity bears have a real problem. Even if Friday sees a little further weak chop, today's low of sp'1952 looks likely to hold.

Closing update from Riley

a little more later....