Thursday, 9 July 2020

Thursday troubles

US equity indexes mostly closed on a weak note, sp -17pts (0.6%) at 3152. Nasdaq comp' +0.5%. Dow -1.4%. The Transports settled -1.9%.

sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities opened in chop mode, and from an initial high of sp'3179, price spiraled to 3115 in late morning.

Meanwhile...

The Santelli

The weekly jobless claims came in at 1.314M vs 1.413 prior, with continuing claims at 18.06M. Whilst it was another improvement, the rate of change isn't great, and even the mainstream cheerleaders are starting to get concerned at the stalling recovery. 

The afternoon saw a recovery from 3115 to 3164, with some closing hour chop, leaning on the weaker side.

Volatility picked up, the VIX swinging from an early low of 26.11 to 31.48, and settling +4.2% to 29.26. The bigger daily equity and VIX cycles are swinging away from the equity bulls/volatility bears, and offer some 'drama' for at least a few weeks... and who doesn't like some market drama?
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Wednesday, 8 July 2020

Broadly choppy

US equity indexes closed broadly higher, sp +24pts (0.8%) at 3169. Nasdaq comp' +1.4%. Dow +0.7%. The Transports settled +0.5%.

sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities opened on a positive note, but the spx maxed out at 3171, with a cooling wave to 3136.

The US President appeared at 9.50am EST...


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Meanwhile...


Global Corona cases, as of midday Wednesday July 8th 2020, totaled 11,884,799, with deaths of 545398. The death rate (as % of global popn - 7.8bn) is currently 0.00007%. It remains the case that very few are aware of the latter number. Certainly, various governments have no interest in highlighting it, for fear the populace will have increased justification to revolt against ongoing restrictions.
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The afternoon saw further chop, with a mini ramp into the close, settling just 2pts shy of the morning high. Broadly though, price action remains choppy within 2965/3233 since early June.

Volatility remained relatively subdued, the VIX settling -4.6% to 28.08.

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Tuesday, 7 July 2020

Tuesday chop

US equity indexes closed broadly weak, sp -34pts (1.1%) at 3145. Nasdaq comp' -0.9%. Dow -1.5%. The Transports settled -1.1%.

sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities opened on a weak note, but sp'3159 was all the bears could manage, with most indexes turning positive by late morning.

The afternoon saw a secondary cooling wave from 3184 to 3142, and settling at 3145.

Volatility climbed for a second day, the VIX settling +5.3% to 29.43.

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Monday, 6 July 2020

Positive start

US equity indexes closed very significantly higher, sp +49pts (1.6%) at 3179. Nasdaq comp' +2.2%. Dow +1.8%. The Transports settled +1.6%.

sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities opened on a positive note, helped by both European, and especially Asian markets. The cooler dollar certainly also gave most asset classes an extra kick higher.

The President (not surprisingly) chimed in...


Indeed, a new historic high for the Nasdaq comp', helped by the US/global equity leader of Microsoft (MSFT).

The late morning and afternoon saw considerable chop, but leaning upward into the close.

Volatility was itself subdued, the VIX settling +0.9% at 27.94.
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Sunday, 5 July 2020

Sunday meanderings

A little glimpse of the world of yours truly...

9.00pm BST

Sunset.. a little bit earlier than before.

Looking towards the capital... of mass bankruptcies

Bullish... the twilight zone

The waning moon
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*the next post on this page will likely appear 5pm EDT on Monday.

Friday, 3 July 2020

Weekend update - World equity markets

It was a bullish month for most world equity markets, with net monthly changes ranging from +8.8% (Brazil), +8.6% (South Africa), +7.7% (India), +6.4% (Hong Kong), +6.2% (Germany), +4.6% (China), +2.2% (Australia), +1.9% (Japan), +1.7% (USA), to -0.6% (Russia).


Lets take our regular look at ten of the world equity markets.

USA - Dow


The mighty Dow climbed for a third consecutive month, settling +492pts (1.7%) to 25812. However, the June close was still below the monthly 10MA, with a distinctly spiky June candle from an intra high of 27580. Momentum remains deeply negative, and will remain so until at least early 2021.


Germany – DAX


The economic powerhouse of the EU - Germany, saw its market climb for a third month, settling +717pts (6.2%) to 12301. The first monthly settlement above the 10MA since January.


Japan – Nikkei


A third month higher, settling +410pts (1.9%) to 22288, the first monthly settlement above the 10MA since January.


Brazil – Bovespa


The Brazilian market lead global equities upward, a third consecutive monthly gain, settling +7653 (8.8%) to 95055. Settling under the 10MA for a fifth month.


Russia - RTSI


Russian equities continued to struggle, settling -7pts (0.1%) to 1212. The intra month high of 1306 was notably just shy of the 10MA. I would note the key 1200 price threshold.


India – SENSEX


Indian equities climbed for the second month of three, settling +2491pts (7.7%) to 34915, but still under the 10MA.


China – Shanghai comp'


The Chinese market settled +132pts (4.6%) to 2984, the first monthly settlement above the 10MA since January.


South Africa – Dow


The second monthly gain of three, settling +129pts (8.6%) to 1632, but still under the 10MA.


Hong Kong – Hang Seng


The second monthly gain of three, settling +1465pts (6.4%) to 24427. The June high of 25303 was notably just shy of the 10MA.


Australia – AORD


Australian equities recovered for a third consecutive month, settling +129pts (2.2%) to 6001, although that was still below the key 10MA.



Summary

Nine world equity markets settled net higher for June, with one net lower.

Brazil and South Africa lead the way higher, with the USA and Russia trailing.

Three markets - Germany, Japan, and China, settled above their respective monthly 10MA.
-


Looking ahead

A relatively light week, ahead of Q2 earnings which will begin with the financials on July 14th.

Earnings:

M -
T - LEVI, PAYX
W - BBBY
T - DAL, WBA
F - INFY
-

Econ-data:

M - PMI/ISM serv'
T - JOLTS
W - EIA Pet', consumer credit
T - Weekly jobs, wholesale invent', Fed bal' sheet
F - PPI
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Final note

It was a bullish month for almost all world markets, but most remain mid/long term broken from their Jan/Feb' highs.

The US market itself is very mixed. The Nasdaq comp' and SPX saw bullish monthly settlements above their 10MA, but the Dow, Transports, and NYSE comp' all settled below key supports. Further, even the SPX June candle was distinctly spiky from 3233, and indicative of s/t bullish exhaustion.

A foray to the mid/low sp'2800s still appears a threat, but even if that is seen, I'd have to expect July (and subsequent months) to settle >3K. To be clear, with the Nasdaq comp' breaking a new historic high, just this past Thursday, the bears have nothing to tout unless a monthly settlement back under sp'3K.

The uncertainty of an election can be expected to be an increasing pressure on the US market. Yet, its pretty clear another stimulus bill is on the table, with the fed ready to buy another few trillion of bonds. Ohh, and lets not forget their corp' bond buying program, with the fed now (financially) in bed with almost everyone, from Comcast, Microsoft, to even the gold miner of Newmont!

Whilst you could argue we have 'sleepy summer doldrums' ahead, I'd expect things to remain pretty wild. Just imagine how twisted and bizarre life will have become by this November/December... in the twilight zone.

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Enjoy the holiday weekend!
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*the next post on this page will likely appear 5pm EDT on Monday.

Thursday, 2 July 2020

Into the long weekend

US equity indexes closed on a positive note, sp +14pts (0.4%) at 3130. Nasdaq comp' +0.5%. Dow +0.4%. The Transports settled +0.9%.

sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities were broadly higher in early pre-market, and caught an extra wave upward on the monthly jobs data from the BLS.

Equities duly opened very significantly higher, with the SPX pushing to 3165. There was a mid morning cooling wave to 3130, but then renewed upside into the early afternoon. The late afternoon saw some distinct cooling, which made for a daily black candle, and that bodes bearish for Mon/Tuesday.

Volatility was in melt mode, the VIX settling -3.3% to 27.68.
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Sunshine and showers into the long weekend

Full moon... July 5th
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Wednesday, 1 July 2020

The second half


US equity indexes closed somewhat mixed, sp +15pts (0.5%) at 3115. Nasdaq comp' +0.9%. Dow -0.3%. The Transports settled -0.2%.

sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities began the second half of the year on a positive note, but soon entered micro chop mode, which continued into the late afternoon. The closing hour printed sp'3128, and settling moderately higher at 3115.

Volatility melted lower, the VIX settling -5.9% to 28.62. Once Thursday's econ-data is out of the way, the market will be inclined for minor chop into the long weekend.
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It was just another day... up above.
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Tuesday, 30 June 2020

June settles

US equity indexes closed broadly higher, sp +47pts (1.5%) at 3100. Nasdaq comp' +1.9%. Dow +0.8%. The Transports settled +1.3%.

sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

Equities opened a little choppy, leaning weak to 3047, but then clawing back upward into early afternoon.

These remain bizarre times, the following two screenies are added, if only for historical posterity...

"No one cared who I was until I put on the mask"

"No one cared until I started buying Newmont $NEM corp' bonds"

The afternoon saw considerable chop, but with the closing hour seeing an upward spike to 3111, and settling at 3100. Volatility was ground lower, the VIX settling -4.2% to 30.43.

With the SPX settling June above multiple aspects of support, not least the 50dma, psy'3K, the monthly 10MA, and the 200dma, it made for a second consecutive bullish monthly settlement. The market still looks vulnerable to the mid/low 2800s, but I would expect July itself to also settle >3K, not least if stim' bill 4 is passed.
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Moody skies... as June/Q2/H1 settles
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Monday, 29 June 2020

Conflict of interest

US equity indexes closed significantly higher, sp +44pts (1.5%) at 3053. Nasdaq comp' +1.2%. Dow +2.3%. The Transports settled +2.8%.

sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities opened on a positive note, but the gains were shaky from the start, with the SPX quickly reversing to test giant psy'3K. From a print of 2999, the SPX swung upward to 3049, seeing increasing chop, with a cooling wave to 3032, and renewed closing upside to settle at 3053.

Volatility was itself relatively subdued, the VIX settling -8.5% at 31.78.


Conflict of interest

Yours truly has always had issues with mainstream financial TV. The literal 'cheerleaders' - not least the Cramer, Eisen, and Liesman, have always been supporters of the central banks.


The Cramer... now partly funded/supported by the Federal Reserve

The press release from the NY fed has clarified Print Central is now in (financial) bed with some 794 companies.

Full list: see: https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/secondary-market-corporate-credit-facility/secondary-market-corporate-credit-facility-broad-market-index

Specifically, hit the link for 'June 5, 2020' which was actually posted/released Sunday June 28th.

A few notable mentions...





From hereon, whenever any fed official is interviewed by CNBC (owned by Comcast) or FOX Business (owned by FOX), there is a massive and obvious conflict of interest.

I'm guessing the mainstream cheerleaders on CNBC and FOX business will refrain from ever acknowledging this.

Ohh, and...


... its pretty incredible to see the Fed are now an owner of corp' bonds/debt in tier'1 miner Newmont (NEM). All that is left is for the fed to start buying the equity, and you know dear reader... that is just a matter of time.
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Full moon... July 5th
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Goodnight from London
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