Tuesday, 18 February 2020

Post holiday depression

US equity indexes closed rather mixed, sp -9pts (0.3%) at 3370. Nasdaq comp' +0.02%. Dow -0.6%. The Transports settled +0.02%. Near term outlook offers midweek chop, with Thurs/Friday threatening sig' downside.

sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities opened on a weak note, as the mainstream were (understandably) seeing having renewed concern about the Corona, with tech giant Apple having warned that guidance (issued just a few weeks) was no longer valid. There was a latter day equity recovery, as s/t oversold conditions were partly burnt off.

Volatility picked up, with the VIX settling +8.4% at 14.83. The s/t cyclical equity setup offers Wednesday chop, with Thurs/Friday threatening a significant break lower.
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There is background chatter on BSG, as Esmail of 'Mr Robot' is making a new series, and from what I gather, its NOT a reboot, but a continuation of the 2004 series/story. Thank the gods!
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Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
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Monday, 17 February 2020

Presidents Day

A little glimpse of my world.... on Presidents Day.

Sunset, 4.40pm GMT, note the 'sundog' to the far left

Behold... an early evening sundog!

A little peace

A flying can of Corona... headed Northward

Another day... another few thousand 'official' cases of Corona

Yours... bullish American holidays

Sunday, 16 February 2020

Sunset after the storm

The UK saw Atlantic storm Dennis this Saturday/Sunday. Whilst I didn't get out until after the sunset (like a true vampire), it was still worth the effort...











Yours... P

Saturday, 15 February 2020

Weekend update - US equity indexes

It was a bullish week for US equity indexes, with net weekly gains ranging from +2.2% (Nasdaq comp'), +1.6% (SPX), +1.2% (NYSE comp'), +1.0% (Dow), to +0.1% (Transports).


Lets take our regular look at five of the main US indexes

sp'500


The SPX climbed for a second consecutive week, breaking a new historic high of 3385, and settling +52pts (1.6%) to 3380. Momentum ticked upward, and remains on the high side. RSI 72s is certainly on the high side, and on any fair basis, the market is m/t technically/cyclically over-stretched. I would note the key 10MA at 3268, things only turn interesting for the bears with a settlement under it, and right now, there is zero sign of a ceiling/turn.


Nasdaq comp'


Tech climbed for a second consecutive week, the 16th gain of 20, breaking a new historic high of 9748, and settling +210pts (2.2%) at 9731. RSI 77s... the very high side, but there is zero sign of a ceiling/turn.


Dow


The mighty Dow climbed for a second week, breaking a new historic high of 29568, settling +295pts (1.0%) at 29398.


NYSE comp'


The master index climbed for a second week, settling +165pts (1.2%) to 14097, but notably shy of the Jan' historic high.


Trans


The 'old leader' - Transports, struggled, settling +5pts (0.1%) at 10862. This week's candle is spiky from around the 10MA, and leans s/t bearish. Further adverse Corona headlines will be especially problematic for the airlines and shippers.



Summary

All five of the main US equity indexes saw net weekly gains.

The Nasdaq is leading the way higher, whilst the Transports lagged.

The SPX, Nasdaq comp', and Dow broke new historic highs.



Looking ahead

It will be a short four day trading week. 

Earnings:

M - RIG
T - WMT, MDT, VMC, GPRN, FANG, A, HLF, DVN
W - BHC, GRMN, ADI, IMAX, AG, APRN, SJM, SEDG, Z, KL, PAAS, STMP, MOS, FIVN
T - DPZ, AKS, NEM, OLED, DBX, ZS, FSLR, FIT
F - DE, TECK, DSX
-

Econ-data:

M - CLOSED
T - Empire state manu', housing market index
W - Housing starts, PPI, FOMC mins (2pm)
T - Weekly jobs, phil'fed, leading indi', EIA Pet' & NG reports, Fed' bal' sheet
F - *OPEX*, PMI comp', existing home sales,
-


Final note

For now, most in the western world don't much care about Corona (if they did, the shelves in the grocery shops would be at least half empty). After all, why worry, as the virus remains almost entirely a Chinese problem?

However, even if the virus remains localised to China, that sure doesn't mean its an issue to entirely dismiss. With around a third of the Chinese populace (even Beijing for a few days) on lock down, all manner of economic ramifications are developing.

If Corona remains a significant issue into/across March - as seems probable, its going to be an increasing problem for the global supply chain, as China is a massive supplier of a great many things.


The 'official' Corona case total can be expected to reach 100k in about a week. It does remain the case though, the Chinese derived data is from a communist leadership whose priority is arguably more about 'saving face' than individual lives. Interesting read: https://www.china-mike.com/chinese-culture/cult-of-face/

Meanwhile, US, and global equities, are absolutely being juiced by the central banks. Continued QE and further rate cuts can be expected into the spring, not least on the excuse of 'Corona'.

There is the ongoing Democrat nomination process (the next vote is Feb'22nd, in Nevada), but for now, the market doesn't care that Sanders is the front runner. The DNC will no doubt fight Bernie - just as they did in 2016, as this political circus does make for some sideline entertainment.

We have some 'interesting' weeks ahead. For some... it will be their last few weeks.

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Enjoy the three day break.
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*the next post on this page will (likely) appear 5pm EST, Tuesday Feb'18th.

Friday, 14 February 2020

Into the long weekend

US equity indexes ended rather mixed into the long weekend, sp +6pts (0.2%) at 3380. Nasdaq comp' +0.2%. Dow -0.1%. The Transports settled -1.2%.

sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

Chop... chop... chop. Whilst the SPX settled a little higher, the Transports was significantly lower, clearly due to Corona concerns. Volatility remained broadly subdued, settling in the low teens.




Meanwhile...


The 'official' case total continues to increase by around 4K per day. A fair number do appear to accept the correct number might require adding a zero to most of the data as supplied by the communists.
--

There is nothing in the UK, and no man needs nothing

Goodnight from London
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Thursday, 13 February 2020

The Corona story continues

US equity indexes closed a little weak, sp -5pts (0.2%) at 3373. Nasdaq comp' -0.1%. Dow -0.4%. The Transports settled -0.1%. Near term outlook favours some cooling into the long weekend.

sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities opened moderately lower, as the mainstream were spooked by a very large jump in Corona case numbers of 45k > 60k. The dip buyers appeared though, with the SPX breaking a new historic high of 3385 in mid afternoon. The closing hour saw a touch of cooling.


Key map: https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Volatility picked up, with the VIX settling +3.0% at 14.15. Near term outlook does lean the equity bears into the long weekend.
--

Another day of sunshine and showers
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Goodnight from London
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Wednesday, 12 February 2020

Flying cans of Corona

US equity indexes closed broadly higher, sp +21pts (0.6%) at 3379. Nasdaq comp' +0.9%. Dow +0.9%. The Transports settled +0.9%.

sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities opened moderately higher, with the SPX breaking a fractional new historic high of 3377.

Powell appeared before the US Senate to spout more lies and deceptions...


If you think I'm unfair, I refer you to the Fed's balance sheet (see yesterday's post), with a roughly $400bn increase since last summer, but an increase which Powell deems as 'not-QE'.

The late afternoon saw a micro burst higher, to break yet another new historic high of 3381. The VIX was ground lower, settling -9.5% at 13.74. 

Meanwhile...

Another flying can of Corona

London has seen its first official case of the Corona virus, taking the UK total to nine. Not surprisingly, the case was from someone flying in from China. For now, yours truly is not concerned.. unless the UK cases total >500.


Whilst the western numbers can be accepted, the China data is to be seen as intentional under-estimates. Its become clear even a positive test to Corona in China will no longer be counted, if the person is deemed as 'asymptomatic'. Communists.... being.... communists.
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Finally...



My day would be significantly improved if I had a baby Panda. Could one be trained to do my accounts, or use a Bloomberg terminal?
--

One more sunset closer to spring
--
Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
--
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Tuesday, 11 February 2020

Lies and deceptions

US equity indexes closed a little mixed, sp +5pts (0.2%) at 3357. Nasdaq comp' +0.1%. Dow u/c. The Transports settled +0.3%.

sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities opened moderately higher, and it was plenty enough to generate a new historic high.


Fed chair Powell appeared before the US house to spout more lies and deceptions, who lapped it up like a baby Panda with a bowl of milk.

Bullish the mute button

Just consider the most recent Fed balance sheet...



... and reflect on the notion that Powell continues to deem it as not-QE. With the Dow (ohh the humanity!) turning red in mid morning (largely due to Boeing, zero orders within January), the US President again chimed in...


It is a 'curious' thought that the US President is probably watching equities tick by tick for significant chunks of the day. The complaint that the (strong) dollar is tough on exporters... well, yes... it is. I'm actually kinda surprised we haven't seen Trump direct the US Treasury to meddle in the FOREX market.

Powell is due again tomorrow, but I'd imagine the market will be more focused on a Sanders victory in New Hampshire, although maybe the DNC will somehow prevent such an 'adverse' vote?

Ohh, and as for that baby Panda and milk...



I will hope the nannies are being regularly checked for Corona. If there is anything that matters in China... its the Pandas.
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Winter sunshine

The waning moon
--
Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
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Monday, 10 February 2020

Starting positive

US equity indexes closed moderately higher, sp +24pts (0.7%) at 3352. Nasdaq comp' +1.1%. Dow +0.6%. The Transports settled +0.1%.

sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities opened a little weak, but saw an opening reversal, to claw upward all the way into the late afternoon, breaking a new historic high of 3352.

Volatility was itself subdued, with the VIX settling -2.8% at 15.04.

Meanwhile, the political freakshow continues to proceed to new levels of absurdity...


It doesn't matter how many times you read it, its still... truly... bizarre.
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Finally, the Corona infection/dead totals continue to increase...


There is increasing chatter that you should perhaps add a zero to most of those numbers. It is also the case that the WHO, and a number of governments (not least China), are battling against what they deem as 'misinformation', as operation 'calm the masses' is being ramped up.
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How many onboard are Corona carriers?

Sunset after storm Ciara

The waning moon
--
Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
--
If you value my work, subscribe to my intraday service. 
For details and the latest offers, see: Permabeardoomster.com