With US equity indexes breaking new multi-month highs, it was a week where the VIX broadly declined, concluding with a net Friday decline of -0.7% to 13.62, that resulted in a net weekly decline of -11.3%. Near term outlook offers the 15/16s, with the 17/18s looking difficult next week.
VIX'60min
VIX'daily3
VIX'weekly
Summary
*a fourth consecutive net daily decline for the VIX, swinging from a Tuesday high of 16.57 to a Thursday low of 13.38.
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US/world capital markets are now pretty damn confident, not least with the renewed notion of a 'Yellen put'.
A break above the key VIX 20 threshold looks out of range next week, and the 30s now look unlikely until mid May at the earliest.
US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp -2pts @ 2080. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled u/c and +0.2% respectively. Near term outlook offers 2065/61 gap zone on Monday. Equity bears should be battling for a break of soft rising trend.. which by the Wed' close will be around 2057.
sp'60min
Summary
*closing hour action: micro chop, leaning a touch on the downside.. unable to clear the hourly 10MA.
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.. and another week in the world's most twisted casino comes to an end.
Unquestionably, with new multi-month highs of sp'2087 and Dow 17962, the equity bulls have a lot to be rather pleased about.
However... the bulls have been battling to break new highs for almost an entire year. If they can't keep pushing upward.. they are facing an epic fail.
The interesting (and scary) issue is how would the Fed - and other central banks, react to renewed equity downside?
At what level of the sp'500 would the Fed start issuing threats of QE4 or lowering rates to zero (or NIRP) ?
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In any case....
...have a good weekend everyone
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*the usual bits and pieces across the evening to wrap up the week
Regardless of any further cooling into the close, all US equity indexes are set for significant net weekly gains. Most notable, the sp'500 broke a new multi-month high of 2087, with Dow 17962.. a mere 15pts shy of the rather critical Nov' high.
sp'weekly1b
Dow, daily
Summary
There is a lot more to say... but I'll save it for after the close.
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Thank the gods... we're almost done with this week.
US equities are a little lower, with a weekly close now viable in the sp'2075/70 zone. The gap zone of 2065/61 looks extremely probable next Monday, but that will barely equate to VIX in the 15s. Oil remains weak, -1.6% in the $40s.
sp'60min
Summary
*interesting action in Japan... see HERE for details.
US equities remain in micro chop mode. Underlying price pressure continues to swing (if extremely slowly) toward the equity bears.. with the gap zone of sp'2065/61 likely to be hit next Monday. Oil is clearly a threat to the bull maniacs.. as no deal of any significance will be reached in Doha this Sunday.
sp'weekly1b
Summary
*note the upper weekly bollinger.. currently holding around the historic high of sp'2134
Further, note the rising 10MA.. which next week will be around 2020. It is going to be damn tough to get a monthly close under 2020.
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.. as things stand, even if we cool -0.5% by the close, a sig' net weekly gain is still due for all the main US indexes.
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For those utterly bored...
Pick a marble
This is the reason we have long needed 1080p50 resolution.
US equities remain in micro chop mode, on what is becoming a particularly tedious opex. The gap zone of sp'2065/61 looks out of range until Monday.. and from there.. the market will likely bounce again. There is notable weakness in Oil, -2.5% in the $40s.. ahead of the Doha meeting this Sunday.
sp'daily5
VIX'daily3
Summary
*VIX lower for a fourth day... in classic opex melt mode. Next week will offer the 16s. The 17/18s look very difficult.. even if sp'2020s.
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Little to add.
yours truly is increasingly getting pissed for a number of (non-market) reasons today, and if I don't return until the close... well... you know.
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notable strength... miners.. GDX, daily
With Gold +$8.. the miners are naturally on the rise again.
Considering it is opex, it should not be entirely surprising that so far, price action remains pretty subdued. Even a retrace to the gap zone of sp2065/61, looks far more viable after the weekend. VIX is reflecting the situation, broadly flat in the 13s.
sp'60min
VIX'60min
Summary
Little to add.. on what is already a pretty tedious day.
Considering current price action, even a move to the sp'2060s looks difficult, with the 2050s absolutely out of range today.. and probably until the latter part of next week.
US equity indexes open much the same as they did yesterday... micro chop. The hourly equity cycle is in the process of a MACD bearish cross.. with the VIX... bullish MACD cross. With the lower equity bollinger likely to be around 2060 late today... the 2050s look out of range in the immediate term.
sp'60min
VIX'60min
Summary
*industrial production data was ugly, m/m -0.6%. Utilisation: 74.8%... a sig' drop of 1.9% from prev' month.
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There isn't much to add.
The gap zone of sp'2065/61 is set to be filled... probably by late today or more viable... early Monday.
Of course..the 2060s aren't the least bit good to those in bear land.
Equity bears should be increasingly desperate to break the recent low of sp'2033.. if not sub 2020s by end month.
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notable weakness... Seagate (STX)
Remaining ugly.... seemingly headed for the 22/20 zone.
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**ohh, and BATS are trying to get listed this morning. Maybe they won't implode to zero this time?
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Good morning. US equity futures are a little lower, sp -4pts, we're set to open at 2078. USD is -0.1% in the DXY 94.70s. Metals are bouncing.. Gold +$5. Oil is -2.5% in the $40s... ahead of the Sunday Doha meeting.
sp'60min
Summary
RE: China GDP: 6.7%.. inline with market consensus. As ever... being a number coming from the communist regime... make of it... what you will.
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The hourly equity cycle is set for a MACD bearish cross this morning, and in theory, will likely tick lower across the day... offering a weekly close around the gap zone of 2065/61. Even if that is achieved.. it'll still make for a net weekly gain.
The looming Doha meeting is clearly spooking some of the oil traders...and now the $40 threshold is back in play.
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Doomer chat: Hunter with Kirby
Frankly, most of what Kirby says is ludicrous.. at least in terms of time. Its the same old 'dollar doom' chatter... which we've been hearing for over a decade.
The USD is the best of the FIAT paper out there, and its bizarre to imagine that many are still expecting all paper currencies to depreciate at the same time.
Few (aside from Armstrong) seem to mention that many foreign held debt is denominated in USD, meaning there is an underlying bid for the dollar across the world.
Without question, the Euro and the Yen are the currencies facing destruction.... not the USD.
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Update from Mario of SMF.
I don't often highlight Mario... but his broader outlooks are usually worth listening to. There is also a video for the Dow, click HERE.
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Despite slight cooling into the close, it was another day for the bull maniacs, with a new multi-month high of sp'2087, and Dow 17962. For the moment, even a minor retrace of 1-2% looks difficult, as the market grows in confidence that everything is just...... fine.
sp'weekly
Dow, weekly
Summary
Little to add, on what was a largely tedious day.
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Looking ahead
*overnight: China, GDP/production data, and that will clearly be important for early action in Asia/Europe
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Friday will see Empire state manu', indust' prod', and consumer sent'.
It will be opex, so expect increasingly dynamic price action into the weekly close.
*Fed official Evans will be speaking at a JPM conf'.
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US equities closed moderately mixed, sp +0.3pts @ 2082 (intra high
2087). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.2% and -0.1%
respectively. Near term outlook offers cooling to the 2065/61 gap zone.
Any price action <2050 looks difficult, as the market is increasingly
confident that 'normal service' has fully resumed.
sp'daily
Dow
Summary
sp'500: a new high of 2087.. the best level since Dec 7th
Dow: a new high of 17963, just 14pts shy of the rather critical Nov' high.
*As things stand, the 'failed head test' - as lead by Mr Carboni, that most of you are aware of, remains intact.... just.
