Tuesday 30 September 2014

Volatility a little higher

Whilst equities saw some rather notable swings across the day, the VIX managed to hold on to minor gains, settling +2.1% @ 16.31. There appears a decreasing chance of a renewed push higher, VIX 13/12s look a given within a week or two.


VIX'60min


VIX'daily3


Summary

So...a minor up day... but holding below yesterdays opening level of 17.08.

Equity bears are still struggling, and even if we do somehow break a new high, I'm increasingly resigned that equities won't break much below sp'1950/40 in the current equity down wave.

Underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) on the daily VIX cycle is getting pretty high... maybe another few days higher..if that.
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a little more later...

Closing Brief

US equities saw some real chop across the day, sp'500 settling -5pts @ 1972 (intra range 1968/85). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -0.5% and -1.4% respectively. Near term outlook is mixed.


sp'60min



Summary

More than anything, today was the second day of FAIL for the equity bears. A little weakness in the early morning...only for the market to ramp to 1985.

Even the latter day decline to 1969 was somewhat understandable, with the usual 'end month/quarter' issues.
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*I am on the sidelines, having bailed from a short-index, @ sp'1972.
--

more later... on the VIX

3pm update - last hour of the month

It has been a real choppy mess, with equities teasing the bears, but still, the underlying pressure now looks to favour the bulls. VIX appears unable to break back into the 17s. Commodities remain weak, Gold -$9, Silver -3.0%, with Oil -3.3%.


sp'60min


Summary

*despite being moderately bullish about the immediate term, I am not going long..am tired... ending Q3 on the sidelines. Hell, at least I'm not holding short overnight.
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We have end month/index rebalancing issues... probably chop into the close, but with some slight upside.

On any basis, bears FAILED yesterday...and today.

2pm update - its a mess

A break of trend on the upside, to sp'1985, but now a break of trend to the downside... back into the 1960s. VIX has taken out the morning high of 16.40s. Metals and Oil remain exceptionally weak.


sp'60min


VIX'60min


Summary

Well... at least Q3 is not ending in a subdued manner.

*despite the weakness, I have no regrets on bailing earlier... not least with this pretty messy price action.


2.33pm... market trying to floor at sp'1969.... VIX unable to claw >16.50.

1pm update - minor chop

Equities see a minor down cycle, but the morning low is holding, with a VIX that is unable to show even moderate upside power. Meanwhile, there is carnage in commodity land - via a rising USD. Gold -$10, Silver -3.2%, with Oil -3.2%.


sp'15min


Summary

*I am marginally tempted to go long at these levels, but for now... not in the mood.
--

Hmm.. another minor down wave.. but really. the early morning low of sp'1970 should hold, along with a VIX peak in the 16.40s.


1.27pm.. minor chop... bulls need to hold 1970.

1.47pm  VIX breaks the morning high................ interesting.

Regardless.... I ain't short... and NO intention to chase lower.

12pm update - battling upward

US equities have turned moderately higher, with some marginal breaks of the down trend. With the VIX -3%, the equity bears have clearly failed.. again. Metals remain weak, Gold -$9, with Silver -2.7%. Oil is significantly lower, -3.1%


sp'60min


USO, daily


Summary

Suffice to say.... today is tedious, and the more bearish scenarios from recent days can be thrown out.

*I'm content to end Q3 on the sidelines
--

VIX update from Mr T.

--

--
time for tea

11am update - equity bears still failing

US indexes remain moderately mixed, and despite some earlier minor weakness.. there is little reason for the bears to not have waved the white flag. VIX is unable to hold the minor opening reversal/gains... now -3%. Metals are choppy, Gold -$4


sp'60min


VIX'60min


Summary

*I exited the short-index block of last Friday...from sp'1972 this past hour. I've little patience after yesterdays bounce, with zero interest in going long today.... will merely see how the month/Q3 ends
--

Its only Tuesday, and this week is already pretty tiresome.

Bears had a chance...failed yesterday...and apparently..looks like we'll probably close moderately higher.

Regardless, this is no market I want to be involved in...

yours... sidelines

--

11.30am.. sp'1984... and that is already 12pts above my 'white flag.. tired of this nonsense' exit.

Little else to add... bears look powerless...  as reflected in  VIX -5%

10am update - opening VIX reversal

Equity indexes open a touch higher, but the VIX saw a rather classic opening reversal candle.. and has turned positive. Metals have turned around, Gold +$2 (from -$10)... whilst the USD holds gains of 0.4%.


VIX'60min



GLD, daily


Summary

*Chicago PMI: 60.5... vs 62 expected (64 previous).. a somewhat poor number for the bulls.
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For the equity bears out there.. the targets are pretty clear...

Need a daily close in the low sp'1960s..with VIX 17s.... seems overly difficult..considering yesterdays strong bounce.
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As for the metals, could easily see a bounce - with broader market weakness, but it makes no difference.. Gold is still headed for $1000/900s.


10.01am.. Consumer confidence... 86... another miss.. market was looking for 90s.

Indexes sliding...but VIX is not showing any upside kick....yet.


10.06am.. I'm getting tired of this nonsense...

tight stop on my SPY put block (from last Friday).. will probably get the kick in a minute.


10.08am.  EXITED short-index block.. from sp'1972 (was short from 1978) .. minor gain, but at least its not a loss.


10.10am.. VIX starting to cool.. and really, a gain of 1% is just not good enough.


10.14am spike-floor hourly candle on the indexes.... doesn't look good for those in bear land now. VIX set to turn negative.
 -

10.20am.. As I feared....indexes turning... green..... VIX red...

A lousy end to Q3 for the bears.


10.32am  Just where is the downside power going to come from? Bears had their chance..and once again...FAILED.

*I remain content on the sidelines for the rest of today, am not particularly in the mood to be long... at least today.

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are moderately higher, sp +5pts, we're set to open at 1982. Metals are significantly lower, Gold -$10, with Silver -1.7%. The USD is ending the month on a high, +0.6% @ 86.10.


sp'60min


USD, monthly'2


Summary

*well, if equity bulls manage a daily close in the sp'1990s, it will surely be white flag waving time for the equity bears.

The bears had their chance yesterday...and failed. There is little else to be said.

Today is of course the end of the month, but also more importantly...Q3.  Equity bears need a close in the low sp'1960s for a net monthly decline, but right now...that looks unlikely.
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Notable early gain: EBAY, +10%, on the announcement it is spinning off Paypal...which is of course its key profit engine. Yeah... great move Ebay..sell off the best part of your company..and you're left with a stagnant online retail element.
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*awaiting some data, notable the Chicago PMI, due at 9.45am. Market is seeking 62s.


9.25am..  equity indexes slipping.. a little... but still.. this is a lousy situation for those in bear land.

As ever... look to the VIX.. it'll usually be the tell.


9.31am.  VIX opens -3%.... bears had better praying now for an opening reversal candle by 10am.  The clock is ticking


9.33am.. VIX... hollow-red reversal candle... if this holds... it does somewhat favour the bears.. at least for a few hours.


9.37am... VIX set to turn positive.... interesting open...

9.39am.. R2K -0.5%... the 1080s sure would be a natural target...that is another 3.5% lower though.


9.42am... once again, VIX remains the tell.... and indexes turn red.

Without question though.. bears need a daily/quarterly close in the low sp'1960s.. with VIX 17/18s. Right now, I find that..depressingly unlikely.

Its rarely easy for the equity bears

Equity bears had everything in their favour to start the week, but the late morning bounce once again reminded many of the underlying 'buy the dip' mentality that continues. The weekly cycles continue to suggest some very viable further downside to come.


sp'weekly8


Summary

*the weekly 'rainbow' candle started red this morning, but turned to blue with the bounce. Regardless, another blue candle sure is better than green..and as things are, I'd guess it will flip to red again tomorrow.. to end Q3.
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Brazil... whacked

I realise to many it is of little importance, but the Monday decline of -4.5%, is currently making for a net monthly decline of a very significant -10.9%

Brazil, monthly



The Bovespa is set to close the month with a bearish engulfing candle. Next support is the giant 50k threshold, that is another -8% lower. Most other world indexes are also weak, and certainly, the equity bears have a fair few interesting MACD (green bar histogram) cycle rollovers now underway.


*I will highlight ten of the world equity indexes (as usual) this coming weekend.
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Looking ahead

A trio of data - Case-shiller HPI, Chicago PMI, and consumer confidence.

*next QE schedule is released tomorrow at 3pm
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Holding short

For yours truly, it was a mixed day. The short-index trade I took on Friday afternoon (when everyone was getting overly bullish again) I should have exited shortly after the open.. since there was a rather clear black-fail candle on the VIX.

As it was, I'm trying to trade a bigger move to the downside, and remain holding for the 1950/40s... which still seem viable tomorrow.

Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

US equities closed moderately lower, sp -5pts @ 1977 (intra low 1964). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.1% and -0.1% respectively. Near term outlook is for continued weakness, as supported by the bigger weekly cycles.


sp'daily5


Dow


Summary

Suffice to say, the Thursday low of sp'1965 was quickly taken out this morning, but the late morning bounce sure did rattle many holding short (including yours truly).

Overall, some further technical damage was done... and with the weekly cycles bearish... I am still seeking further downside..at least to the sp'1950/40s.
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Closing update from Riley



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a little more later...

Monday 29 September 2014

Volatility back on the rise

With US equities opening somewhat weak, the VIX managed an early morning peak of 17.08, but with a rather strong intraday rally, the VIX settled +7.6% @ 15.98. The multi-week up wave continues, and the 18/19s look viable if sp'1950/40s this week.


VIX'60min


VIX'daily3


VIX'weekly


Summary

*as noted last week, one of the top aspects that the equity bears need to see is a weekly VIX close above the 200 MA. Clearly, Friday was a fail... but maybe this Friday will see a close in the 18s.
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Interesting day, with an opening black-fail on the hourly cycle, but still...a net daily gain.. and we're putting in higher highs..and higher lows.

The 18/19s still look viable by late Tuesday, which would likely equate to sp'1950/40s.
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more later... on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equities closed moderately lower, sp -5pts @ 1977 (intra low 1964). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.1% and -0.1% respectively. Near term outlook is for continued weakness, as supported by the bigger weekly cycles.


sp'60min


Summary

Today was a pretty messy day. The opening weakness was certainly not expected by many, after the Friday gains... and yet once again, the bulls managed a very significant intraday bounce.

For the equity bears, at least the Thursday low of 1965 was broken (if marginally), and with VIX 17s helping to confirm it.

As for tomorrow, well, all that can be said right now is that the weekly cycles ARE bearish, but we're still seeing rather strong bounces that negate much of the declines.

All things considered, bears need to end tomorrow in the sp'1950s - with VIX 18/19s... or new historic highs can be expected in October.
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*I remain holding short.. seeking an exit in the 1950/40s, along with VIX 18/19s.. that still  seems viable tomorrow, as Q3 will come to a close.
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more later... on the VIX

3pm update - rats to bail into the close?

A very important closing hour is ahead for both sides. Bulls seem exhausted after a late morning bounce.. whilst bears are showing renewed strength, with a VIX that is battling to challenge the opening high of 17.08.


VIX'daily3


sp'daily5


Summary

... this closing hour could really help shape the next few days.. which in themselves..could determine what happens in Q4.

Indeed, Q3 ends tomorrow... are we going to see a little wash out to the 1940s, with VIX 18/19s?
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*I will likely hold short into tomorrow, unless VIX breaks into the 18s, with sp'1955/50... but that doesn't seem at all viable until tomorrow.
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3.19pm... VIX cooling, now just +7%... and bears are failing. I suppose a moderate VIX net daily gain is better than red, but still...its just not enough.

Disappointing... and if we don't break into the sp'1950s tomorrow... then this down wave looks complete.



3.36pm... Major fail for the bears. Daily index candle... spike-floor.. reversal candle.


Yes the VIX is still net higher, but really, that sort of candle is usually bullish for the next day. Any 1990s tomorrow.. and it'll be back to the lunacy for new highs in October.



3.41am... frankly, its a wonder all the bears won't be on suicide watch this evening. Promising opening declines.. only to be whipsawed by a baseless rally (if helped by $2bn of QE fuel)

As ever...its rarely easy for the equity bears... but more on that later...

back at the close

2pm update - eyes on the VIX

Whilst equities remain somewhat resilient, the VIX is looking twitchy... with the underlying inclination on clawing back upward. The equity bears should be battling with everything they have to achieve a VIX close in the 17s. It would offer 18/19s tomorrow, with sp'1950/40s


VIX'daily3


Summary

*I remain annoyed at myself for not exiting at the open - when the VIX had a black-fail candle.. but then, I'm trying to trade a bigger equity down move..
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So...for me...its pretty clear... bears need a daily close in the sp'1960s.. with VIX 17s.

With two hours to go... it sure would get exciting if the bulls start hitting the exit button into the close.
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*I remain short from last Friday afternoon...seeking an exit in the 1950/40s.
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2.11pm.. This VIX sure is twitchy.... almost +9%... and it won't take much of a nudge.. and this market is going to get upset into the close.

yours... watching with a great deal of interest


2.21pm.. VIX +9.8%...on the rise.... bull maniacs in trouble now. They had their bounce this morning.... and with no QE fuel tomorrow... to end Q3....

Equity bears have everything in their favour... including the important weekly cycles.


2.29pm.. VIX is making a damn serious attempt to punch above the opening high of 17.08.

With 90mins to go...this could be one hell of a close!  Stay tuned!

1pm update - latter day weakness?

Having bounced (somewhat disturbingly) from sp'1964 to 1979.. the indexes are again seeing renewed weakness. For those equity bears seeking a key Alibaba top... the targets are clear, a daily close in the mid/low 1960s, with VIX in the 17s.


sp'weekly8


Summary

*after this mornings bounce I'm somewhat adverse to highlighting the smaller cycles. Weekly chart remains on SELL.

Without question, for the serious 'big money' out there, short-stops would be around last Friday's high of 1985.

Any move into the 1990s this week, and its white flag time. I hope it doesn't come to that. I'm tired of the low volatility..its frankly boring...and I think even the permabulls would dream to be buying 15/20% lower within a few months.
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So...3 hours to go..lets see if the bears can show some downside power...


1.30pm.. VIX holding moderate gains of 7%.... nothing special.... the only good thing for bears is we did see 17s at the open.

The remainder of the day...pretty critical.

12pm update - equity bears rattled

The bounce from the opening declines has been especially strong, and some bears are already waving the white flag, looking for new historic highs. Weekly cycles remain bearish, but if the indexes close positive today... then sp'1964 will mark just another higher low.


Dow, daily


VIX'daily3


Summary

*daily candle on the VIX is a real mess, how we close today is critical. Bears need >17.10.. but right now.. that looks damn difficult.
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For the bears... either we see a latter day sell off (and that is rarely the case in this market).... or this is going to mark just another higher low.

I guess at least its not boring, right?

--
VIX update from Mr T.


--
time for lunch


12.33pm.. chop chop.. sp -8pts.... but really... bears gotta see a daily close under the opening level..otherwise...daily reversal candles all over the place.

Similarly.. need VIX 17s.

Long afternoon ahead...

11am update - QE fuelled bounce

US equities remain weak, and despite a notable bounce, equity bears can tout that the Thurs' low has been quickly broken, and confirmed via VIX 17s - the highest level since Aug'8. Rest of the day will certainly be.... interesting.


Dow, daily


Summary

*there was $2bn of QE fuel this morning.. a bounce was not unexpected. I'm kinda annoyed though that I didn't exit at the open.. I could have simply re-shorted already some 10pts higher. Oh well.
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For me, the issue now is whether we get stuck in the Dow 16700s..or keep on pushing lower to the Aug' lows. Where we floor in the current down cycle - from Dow 17300s, will likely shape the remainder of the year.
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*I'm resolutely holding short, will reassess near the close. Certainly, if we're in the 1950s, I'll probably close out.. even though the 1945/40 zone seems viable on Tuesday.
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For those in a particularly doomy mood...

Over at Mt Doom...



The first snows of the autumn (at least that I know of) are making things even more contrasting... a true land of Fire and Ice.
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11.41am  This is getting borderline bad for the bears... at the current rate, we'll be positive by 1pm. If so..then its white flag time.

10am update - breaking new cycle lows

The equity bears have already achieved some significant milestones, breaking the Thurs' low of sp'1965.. and confirmed via VIX 17s. The bigger weekly charts are offering 1910/1890 within the near term. Gold is catching a slight 'fear bid'.


sp'weekly8


Summary

*there are a hundred charts I'd like to highlight right now, but the above should at least remind everyone of the bigger issue...

We're starting the week with a red candle....and primary target would be the lower weekly bollinger.

As things are..I think equity bears should merely look for a slightly higher target of 1920/10s. It is NOT necessary to hit the August low, although it is notable that the R2K has already broken it.
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*I hold short from last Friday afternoon, seeking an exit in the sp'1955/45 zone.

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The 100 day MA of sp'1956/55 is next intraday target... we might a micro bounce from there.


10.09am.. minor chop... but still, the bears have already done some notable damage.. would be useful to see the 1950s by 11am... but not 'absolutely necessary'.

VIX holding 10% gains in the 16s...it will VERY important to close above the opening high of 17.08... seems viable.
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10.25am.... hard to keep up... black-fail candle on the VIX... hence the current equity bounce...



Bears had better negate that by end day... with a daily close >17.10.
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10.49am.. Bears getting really rattled by this QE fuelled morning bounce.

Still...a long day ahead.... I ain't particularly concerned...yet.

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are moderately lower, sp -11pts , we're set to start the week at 1971. Metals are a touch higher, Gold +$3. Equity bears need to take out last Thursday's low of 1965, which will open the door wide to initial downside zone of 1950/40s by late Tuesday.


sp'daily5


Summary

So, we're set to open somewhat lower, just 0.3% from breaking the last weeks low. Certainly, given an hour or two, we could take out the low.. and just keep slipping into tomorrow.

For me, the issue now is whether we get stuck around 1950/40s...or somehow can unravel to re-test the August low.. no later than end of next week.

It won't be easy... the style of price action today and tomorrow will give us a good idea of where we might be trading across the next few weeks...perhaps even months.
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*as ever...eyes to the VIX, it can often offer more clarity than the indexes. Equity bears should be seeking VIX 17s by tomorrow.

Notable weakness: TSLA -2.1% (Mr Carboni will be pleased)

--
Doomer chat with Hunter and Mannarino



--
Good wishes for Monday


8.53am... indexes still sliding in pre-market     sp -16pts... set to open at  1966.. a mere 1pts above the Thursday low...

Sure looks like we're going down hard this morning.


8.59am.. sp'500 takes out the Thursday low in pre-market...

this is a good sign for the bears...will need some good confirmation via VIX 16s.


9.34am.. VIX 17s... a major achievement to start the week.

Saturday 27 September 2014

Weekend update - US weekly indexes

Having hit a new high of sp'2019 on Alibaba IPO day, US equities saw the weakest price action since late July. Net weekly changes ranged from -1.0% (Dow), -1.4% (sp'500), to -2.4% (R2K). Near term outlook is for further weakness into early October.


Lets take our regular look at six of the main US indexes

sp'500


It is indeed pretty fascinating to consider that the sp'500 might have seen a key intermediate peak on the very day of the giant Alibaba IPO.

This week saw a brief break of the weekly 10MA, but bulls managed to hold a weekly close in the 1980s. Underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle ticked lower. It is highly notable that by mid October the lower weekly bollinger will be around 1900... and that would indeed be 'best bear case' before the next significant up wave.

If the bulls can break much above 1995/2000 next week, the door will re-open to new highs, and right now, the target would be the 2030s. Considering the recent price action though, I do not think that likely.


Nasdaq Comp'


The tech' slipped -1.5% this week, but remains very close to the highs. There is a pretty bearish aspect in that the MACD cycle is set to turn negative at the Monday open, and there is certainly a lot of downside potential. First key target for the equity bears should be 4300, which is a further 4.5% or so lower.


Dow


The mighty Dow was the strongest index this week, losing just -1.0%. MACD cycle is set to turn negative next week, with first downside target of around 16750, some 2% lower. If that fails to hold, then secondary target is the August low of 16300s.


NYSE Comp'


The master index fell for the second week of four, having brushed rising support this Thursday. Underlying MACD cycle remains strongly negative, and the August low of 10500s looks well within range next week.


R2K


Not surprisingly, the R2K, having lagged the broader market since the late spring, continues to suffer the most, with a net weekly decline of -2.4%. The 1080s remain the critical threshold, and that is currently just 4% away. Any break <1080 will open up the giant 1000 threshold, with best 'doomer case' on a multi-month decline.. the low 900s.


Trans


The 'old leader' slipped -1.7% this week, with the MACD cycle turning negative. There is certainly a lot of downside potential, but first target remains the 7900/7800s.. where the lower weekly bollinger will be lurking in October.


Summary

So... we've swung from an Alibaba high of sp'2019, to a 'something new is happening' Thursday low of sp'1965. In the scheme of things, price action is still relatively minor, as reflected in a VIX that still struggles just to hold the mid teens.

For the chart technicians out there, I think what is most notable are the MACD cycles, with a fair few indexes set to turn negative at the start of next week. For the algo-bot market that we trade in, next week looks set for continued downside, rather than another attempt to break new highs.

Certainly, the price action on Thursday was something we've not seen since late July, although I'll be the first to admit that until the VIX breaks above the important 20 threshold, the equity bears should not let themselves get overly confident.


Looking ahead

There is fair bit of data next week...

Mon - Pers' income/outlays, home sales
Tue - Case Schiller HPI, Chicago PMI, consumer conf'
Wed - ADP jobs, PMI & ISM manufacturing sector, construction spending
Thur - jobless claims, factory orders
Fri - Monthly jobs data, intl trade, PMI & ISM service sector

*there is QE next Monday of $2-2.5bn. It is notable that as of Wednesday Oct'1st, QE-pomo will be just $10bn.. with QE3 ending entirely as of Friday Oct'31st.
--


Best case for the 'doomer bears'

With the break of support @ sp'1979, there is actually some real justification to consider that the giant wave from Oct'2011 has possibly concluded. Certainly, the Alibaba IPO - with an sp'500 top of 2019, would kinda sync well together.

Right now, the following remains best bear case.

sp'weekly7a


Without question, in order for there to be ANY chance of a much larger down wave in late Oct/Nov, the bears MUST break to the low 1900s in the current wave. The 1950/40s just would not be good enough. Within the next two trading weeks, bears need to hit the 1920/10s.. if not actually test the August low of 1904.

If by some miracle we do get to the low 1900s, then I'll have 'reasonable' confidence that 2019 was the intermediate'3 top... something that many have been seeking for over a year.

*I hold short across the weekend, and this is my first short-index trade since summer 2013.

back on Monday :)

Momentum turning to the bears

Despite the bulls managing moderate gains to end the week, the week as a whole was certainly one for the bears. The sp'500 saw a net weekly decline of -27pts (-1.4%), settling at 1982. Outlook into early October is bearish, with viable downside to the 1920/00 zone.


sp'weekly8


NYSE Comp, weekly'2


Summary

Its been a long week, not least with my 'GOOG' problem.
--

Suffice to say, equity bears had a week in their favour, the blue candle on the sp'500 weekly 'rainbow' chart was somewhat useful. However, some indexes settled with a red candle, most notably, the R2K, and the NYSE Comp'

Underlying MACD (green bar histogram) remains bearish, and for the moment at least... bounces are to be shorted.

All things considered, further downside looks likely next week.... at least to the sp'1950/40s, which should equate to VIX somewhere in the 17-19s.

Have a good weekend everyone

Goodnight from London
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*the weekend post will be on the US weekly indexes

Daily Index Cycle update

US equities ended the week on a moderately positive note, sp +16pts @ 1982. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 1.2% and 0.8%. Near term outlook is for renewed downside to the 1950/40s.


sp'daily5


R2K


Trans


Summary

So.. the bulls managed some gains to end the week, but still, a bounce of some degree was expected after the rather strong Thursday decline.

With the multiple technical breaks on Thursday, I am seeing the Friday bounce as just that... a bounce. The VIX looks headed for at least a test of the important weekly 10MA - which is currently in the mid 17s. That should equate to the sp'1950/40s.
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*I am short the indexes, and holding across the weekend.. seeking an exit in the 1950/40s by midweek.
--

Closing update from Riley



--
a little more later...

Friday 26 September 2014

Volatility retraces into the weekend

With equities building moderate gains, especially in the latter part of the day, the VIX continued to melt lower from the Thursday high, settling -5.0% @ 14.85. Near term outlook offers a jump into the 17-19s... the 20s still look difficult, even if sp'1930/20s.


VIX'60min


VIX'daily3


VIX'weekly


Summary

*despite falling into the weekend, the VIX saw a weekly net gain of a very significant 22.6%
--

It was not surprising to see equities rally today, and indeed, my original target zone was for a retrace to 15/14.80. The afternoon low of 14.31 was marginally surprising.

Considering the truck load of technical breaks on Thursday, I'm now seeking further VIX upside, which should at least take the VIX to 17, perhaps 18/19s. The 20s still look difficult though.
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more later... on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equities closed moderately higher, sp +16pts @ 1982. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 1.2% and 0.8% respectively. Near term outlook is for renewed downside, breaking the Thursday low of 1965, with first target zone of 1950/40s.


sp'60min


Summary

...and another week in market town comes to a close.

Certainly, no one can say this week was boring. We've seen continued weakness from the Alibaba high of sp'2019.. down to 1965... with an end week bounce to 1986.. but cooling a little into the close.
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*I am holding short across the weekend, seeking 1950/40s... with a 'best bear case' target zone of 1920/00.
--

Have a good weekend everyone.
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more later... on the VIX