With US equities breaking lower, the VIX broke upward, settling +9.1% @ 13.21 (intra low 12.01). Near term outlook is for more significant equity downside.. as low as the sp'2060s.. which might equate to VIX 16/17s. The big 20 threshold looks out of range in the new up cycle.
VIX'60min
VIX'daily3
Summary
Suffice to say... it looks like we have a short term top in equities.. with a short term floor in the VIX.
Equity bears should have at least 4-5 trading days in their favour... taking us into early next week.
Despite the ongoing Greek situation, I find it hard to envision the VIX breaking above the big 20 threshold.
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US equity indexes closed broadly weak, sp -15pts @ 2108 (intra high 2125). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -1.8% and -0.9% respectively. Near term outlook is bearish, with viable downside to the 2060s by end month. From there... if the Greek can is successfully kicked... upside across July and into August.
sp'60min
Summary
*closing hour was somewhat weak, breaking a marginal new intra low.
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At least today saw some reasonable price action... with the daily closes all boding for lower levels across the rest of the week.
As ever.. there will be little bounces along the way, but it does look like we'll take out the double floor of sp'2072 before end month.
I do fear one final lunge higher across July/early August.... and I will be looking to close out any short positions ahead of the July 4'th holiday break.
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Regardless of the exact close, it has been an important day for the equity bears, with a clear break of the ascending wedge, as confirmed via a rising VIX. The issue now is how far down? The sp'2100 threshold looks an easy target, best case downside appears to be the 2060s within 3-5 trading days.
sp'60min
VIX'60min
Summary
*notable weakness in the Transports -1.9%
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Suffice to add... without getting lost in any minor noise.... the market looks headed lower for rest of the week.. and probably into next Mon/Tuesday.
A Greek deal of some twisted kind looks probable.. .and by then.. we could be flooring in the 2060s.
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*I remain short INTC.. and long VIX. For now.. I'm very content to hold into Friday.
US equities continue to slowly unravel, after the earlier break of the big wedge. VIX is +7% in the low 13s.. as some are once again concerned about the Greek situation. USD is surprisingly weak, -0.2% in the DXY 95.20s. Metals remain weak, Gold -$2. Oil has lost the $60 threshold... -1.8%.
sp'60min
VIX'60min
Summary
As noted earlier, regardless of the close.. the equity bears have finally achieved a break of the big ascending wedge.
In theory.. it should take out the recent double floor of sp'2071.. but I'll sure be getting twitchy in the 2090/80s.. esp' into the weekly close.
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US equities have seen a break of the giant bearish ascending wedge... as confirmed via VIX 12.80s. Clearly, the current move is only moderate weakness.. but it IS an important break. More significant weakness into next week looks due.. first support will be around the 2100 threshold.
sp'60min
VIX'60min
Summary
Finally... we have a clear break.
Regardless of how we close the day.. the bears did at least achieve that.
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notable reversal.. NFLX.. having swung from $706 to 680.. as Icahn has made a run for the exit door.
The daily black-fail candle.. is a real problem. The giant $500 threshold is a very valid downside target.. if the broader market sees a sig' correction into the late summer.
Of course.. divide 500 by 7.. so ... $71... call it the 75/70 zone.
US equities continue in minor chop mode... still holding a baby bull flag.. within a large ascending bearish wedge. VIX is similarly stuck within the down trend. The break levels at the close of today will be sp'2121 with VIX 12.30s. Metals remain weak, Gold -$4.
sp'60min
vix'60min
Summary
It remains tedious, and I certainly understand the disbelief amongst some bears who can't believe a 'no deal' situation is only resulting in minor declines... at least so far.
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notable reversal in NFLX... with Icahn causing some trouble as he notes on TWTR has has sold out.
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VIX update from Mr T.
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time for lunch
12.03pm. SNAP lower.... as support FAILS. VIX jumps... 12.70s... we have a provisional bearish break.. finally!
12.05pm.. There is notable discrepancy between SPY and the stated indexes.
SPY is suggesting sp -8pts... actual quoted sp'500 is -5pts
Something 'quirky' is going on...
12.10pm... huge black-fail candle on NFLX.. .set to turn negative.. having swung from 706 to 682
12.30pm.. sp'500.. back in sync with SPY.... -8pts ..
What is clear though.. we have a provisional break of trend in the sp'500... confirmed via VIX.
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Equities remain broadly flat... price structure is a baby bull flag... within a large bearish ascending wedge. Equity bears just need a daily close <sp'2121, with VIX 12.30s.. to offer a provisional break. Metals remain weak, Gold -$5. Oil is +0.3% after another net weekly inventory draw.
sp'60min
vix'60min
Summary
Its getting pretty tedious again.
What is clear... considering the utter failure for a Greek deal... a mere 6 days ahead of the next due payment... the broader market is holding up bizarrely well.
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US equities open a little lower, but neither the sp'500 or VIX have broken their trends.. despite the ongoing Greek drama. USD remains a little weak, -0.1% in the DXY 95.30s. Metals are weak, Gold -$3. Oil is back to flat.. ahead of the latest EIA report.
sp'60min
VIX'60min
Summary
*opening VIX candle was a black-fail.. but is currently attempting to put in an opening reversal.. with a spike floor.
Its something to watch, although there have been a few fake outs in recent days.
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Considering the current Greek drama... equity bears should be at least marginally concerned that the market is showing little sign of a breakdown.
A further minor wave into the sp'2130s is easily viable... along with VIX 11s.
Decisive break levels... sp'2117... with VIX 12.70s...
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notable strength: NFLX +1.7% @ $692, having hit the big $700 threshold. With a 7 for 1 split.... the retail amateurs will be piling into that one.
Good morning. Futures are moderately lower, sp -4pts, we're set to open at 2120. Equity bears merely need a break <2117 to break the 7 day wide ascending wedge. USD is somewhat bizarrely weak, -0.3% @ DXY 95.10s. Metals remain weak, Gold -$1. Oil is -0.2% ahead of the latest EIA report.
sp'60min
Summary
*Q1 GDP rev'2: -0.2%.. exactly inline with market expectations. Certainly, Q1 was a failure for the econ-bulls.. now its a case of whether Q2 was also negative.
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The Greek drama rumbles on... with neither party so far willing to do as the other demands.
It'll probably drag into next week.. which will give the market an opportunity to see a washout.. before another 'last minute rescue'.
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A break of the wedge looks probable... rest of the week should be rather interesting for those in bear land.
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Doomer chat, Hunter with Ms. Brown
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Overnight action: China, +2.5% @ 4690, having been briefly lower in the early afternoon. The volatility continues, and it would seem the Chinese leadership want to keep the bubble going as there was talk of changing some of the lending/deposit ratios.
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Day to day price volatility in the China equity market continues to increase, with the Shanghai comp' having swung from a morning low of 4264, but settling +2.2% @ 4576. Further weakness this summer looks due, a natural retrace of the giant ramp from summer 2014 remain the 3400s.
China, daily
China, monthly
Summary
Suffice to add... the China equity market is increasingly unstable. All things considered, further weakness under the psy' level of 4K seems very probable. A washout to the key breakout level in the 3400s remains very viable. From there... 6K... and upward in 2016.
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Looking ahead
Wednesday will see GDP (rev'2), corp' profits, and the EIA oil report.
*as ever... the market will be especially vulnerable to any 'spooky' Greek news headlines.
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US equities closed moderately mixed, sp +1pt @ 2124 (intra low 2119). The
two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.1% and +0.3% respectively. Price action
remains increasingly tight, and near term outlook is for renewed weakness
into end month. Best downside case remains the sp'2060s.
sp'daily5
R2K
Nasdaq comp'
Summary
*notable (if fractional) new historic highs in the R2K (1296), and the Nasdaq comp (5163).
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Suffice to add... further gains for the US equity market... with Transports (as usual) lagging.
Underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle is a little on the high side for most indexes.... market will struggle to push much above sp'2130 in the immediate term.
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