VIX'60min
VIX'daily3
Summary
Little to add.
In the scheme of things, VIX remains relatively subdued. The key 20 threshold looks out of range in the immediate term.
--
more later... on the indexes
Wednesday, 14 October 2015
VIX climbs for a second day
With equity indexes closing broadly weak for a second day, the VIX managed the second consecutive net daily gain, settling +1.6% @ 17.96 (intra high 18.78). Near term outlook is that equities will resume higher, for a test of critical resistance in the sp'2040/60 zone.
VIX'60min
VIX'daily3
Summary
Little to add.
In the scheme of things, VIX remains relatively subdued. The key 20 threshold looks out of range in the immediate term.
--
more later... on the indexes
VIX'60min
VIX'daily3
Summary
Little to add.
In the scheme of things, VIX remains relatively subdued. The key 20 threshold looks out of range in the immediate term.
--
more later... on the indexes
Closing Brief
US equities closed broadly weak for a second consecutive day, sp -9pts @ 1994 (intra high 2009). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.2% and -0.9% respectively. Near term outlook offers strong support around the 50dma of sp'1985. Renewed upside still looks due to key resistance of 2040/60.
sp'60min
Summary
*closing hour action: moderate chop, with a micro attempt to rally, stalling at 1997... similarly reflected in the VIX
-
Certainly, it was not the most exciting of days, as market volatility remains relatively low.
All things considered, I still have to expect new highs.. with broad upside into the next FOMC of Oct'28th.
It remains the case that how the market reacts in the sp'2040/60 zone.. that will be very telling indeed.
-
**Awaiting earnings from Jessica Jones.. aka NFLX.
--
more later... on the VIX
sp'60min
Summary
*closing hour action: moderate chop, with a micro attempt to rally, stalling at 1997... similarly reflected in the VIX
-
Certainly, it was not the most exciting of days, as market volatility remains relatively low.
All things considered, I still have to expect new highs.. with broad upside into the next FOMC of Oct'28th.
It remains the case that how the market reacts in the sp'2040/60 zone.. that will be very telling indeed.
-
**Awaiting earnings from Jessica Jones.. aka NFLX.
--
more later... on the VIX
3pm update - weakness into the close
US equity indexes look set to close on the weaker side. Regardless of the exact close, renewed upside still looks due.. at least to the sp'2030/40s. Metals are set to close with sig' gains, Gold +$18, with Silver +1.7%. Oil remains seeing minor chop in the $46s.. ahead of next pair of inventory reports.
sp'60min
USO'60min
Summary
*Oil remains battling to break out of the down trend, with the API report due AH, and the EIA report due tomorrow at 11am. Lately though, Oil seems to cope with any adverse net weekly inventory gains rather well.
As it is, the hourly cycle is set to turn bullish in 1-3 trading hours.
--
Little to add.. on what has been another not entirely exciting day. Even the WMT drama didn't really cause much more of a localised market quake.
It is notable that INTC which opened sharply lower to $30.85, is set to close net higher in the mid $32s.
*NFLX earnings at the close... and that will be something to watch.
--
back at the close.
sp'60min
USO'60min
Summary
*Oil remains battling to break out of the down trend, with the API report due AH, and the EIA report due tomorrow at 11am. Lately though, Oil seems to cope with any adverse net weekly inventory gains rather well.
As it is, the hourly cycle is set to turn bullish in 1-3 trading hours.
--
Little to add.. on what has been another not entirely exciting day. Even the WMT drama didn't really cause much more of a localised market quake.
It is notable that INTC which opened sharply lower to $30.85, is set to close net higher in the mid $32s.
*NFLX earnings at the close... and that will be something to watch.
--
back at the close.
2pm update - metals building gains
US equities remain in chop mode, around the sp'2000 threshold. There is moderate threat of a test of the 50dma (sp'1980s) in the near term, but broadly... new cycle highs >2022 look due. VIX is relatively subdued in the 17s. Metals continue to build gains, Gold +$11, with Silver +1.5%.
GLD, daily
Silver, daily
Summary
No doubt the Gold/silver bugs will be very pleased with today.. and there are clearly bullish technical signals starting to go off.
However, the weak USD is clearly a primary reason for the current wave higher... and unless you are of the 'omg, the dollar is going to zero' crowd.. the metals remain broadly weak from 2011.
--
As for equities.. little to expect from the rest of today. Underlying momentum is turning back toward the equity bulls, and the sp'2030/40s remain viable by the weekend.
notable strength, the miners, GDX +4.8%... not surprising.. considering the gains in the precious metals.
--
back at 3pm
GLD, daily
Silver, daily
Summary
No doubt the Gold/silver bugs will be very pleased with today.. and there are clearly bullish technical signals starting to go off.
However, the weak USD is clearly a primary reason for the current wave higher... and unless you are of the 'omg, the dollar is going to zero' crowd.. the metals remain broadly weak from 2011.
--
As for equities.. little to expect from the rest of today. Underlying momentum is turning back toward the equity bulls, and the sp'2030/40s remain viable by the weekend.
notable strength, the miners, GDX +4.8%... not surprising.. considering the gains in the precious metals.
--
back at 3pm
1pm update - turning positive
US equities have seemingly put in a short term floor of sp'1993, and are in the process of turning positive. Net daily gains now look possible, with VIX having maxed out at 18.78. Metals are notably strong, Gold +$9.. as it is making a play to break/hold above the 200dma.
sp'60min
GLD, daily
Summary
*the action in the metals is certainly bullish in the near term.. and is no doubt being helped by the weak USD... itself being pressured by concerns rates won't be raised until summer 2016.
--
So.. the market is pushing higher for the latter half of the day, and those seeking much lower levels are going to be waving the white flag soon enough.
notable strength: INTC, +1.3%... a very strong reversal from the earlier declines.
NFLX +1% in the $111s.. with earnings at the close of today.
--
A somewhat sunnier day in London city...
--
back at 2pm
sp'60min
GLD, daily
Summary
*the action in the metals is certainly bullish in the near term.. and is no doubt being helped by the weak USD... itself being pressured by concerns rates won't be raised until summer 2016.
--
So.. the market is pushing higher for the latter half of the day, and those seeking much lower levels are going to be waving the white flag soon enough.
notable strength: INTC, +1.3%... a very strong reversal from the earlier declines.
NFLX +1% in the $111s.. with earnings at the close of today.
--
A somewhat sunnier day in London city...
 |
| Hyper bullish sunshine |
back at 2pm
12pm update - moderate weak chop
US equity indexes remain seeing moderate chop... leaning on the weak side, not least helped by WMT, -8% in the $61s. Broadly, price action still doesn't support the notion that the market has seen a mid term top. First target upside remains 2030/40s... if not the 2040/60 zone... which really is critical.
sp'60min
Summary
Little to add.
I for one ain't getting overly excited at this morning's weakness...
--
notable strength.. the precious metal miners..
GDX, daily
I'm still largely dismissive that Gold saw a key multi-year low @ $1071.. and if that is the case, the gains in the miners will not last.
--
VIX update from Mr T.
--
time for tea :)
sp'60min
Summary
Little to add.
I for one ain't getting overly excited at this morning's weakness...
--
notable strength.. the precious metal miners..
GDX, daily
I'm still largely dismissive that Gold saw a key multi-year low @ $1071.. and if that is the case, the gains in the miners will not last.
--
VIX update from Mr T.
--
time for tea :)
11am update - WMT upsets the market cart
With Walmart (WMT) snapping 9% lower, the broader market has seen an excuse to lose the sp'2K threshold. Next key support is around sp'1990/85.. where the 50dma is lurking. Gold is building gains, +$8... whilst Oil sees renewed weakness, -1.3% in the 46s.
WMT' 5min
sp'daily5
Summary
re: WMT. A case where the market shows it really only cares for immediate term... in that 'investing for the long term in the company' is an excuse to slam the worlds biggest retailer -10% in a matter of minutes.
Will be interesting to see how WMT closes the day.
--
As for the broader market.. so.. 2K fails to hold.. but broadly... price action shows little concern.
It is notable that the VIX remains below the key 20 threshold.
WMT' 5min
sp'daily5
Summary
re: WMT. A case where the market shows it really only cares for immediate term... in that 'investing for the long term in the company' is an excuse to slam the worlds biggest retailer -10% in a matter of minutes.
Will be interesting to see how WMT closes the day.
--
As for the broader market.. so.. 2K fails to hold.. but broadly... price action shows little concern.
It is notable that the VIX remains below the key 20 threshold.
10an update - opening chop
US equities open with some minor chop, with the equity bears unable to push the sp'500 under the psy' level of 2K. USD is seeing some notable weakness, -0.3% in the DXY 94.49s. Gold is +$7. Oil has seen an opening reversal, currently back to u/c.
sp'60min
USO'60min
Summary
*Retail sales came in lousy, +0.1% m/m... although not apocalyptic.
--
So.. opening chop.. and equity bears are not showing any sign they will be able to muster any downside follow through to the 1990/80s.
Broadly..the 2030/40s still look viable by this Friday close... with a grander target of 2040/60 zone by the next FOMC of Oct'28th.
NFLX earnings at the close will be one to watch.
-
notable strength: DAL,
The break into the $48/49s..is rather significant.. and is one stock that is warning the market won't stop at sp'2040/60.
-
**despite what the cheerleaders on clown finance TV keep saying.. there is NO EIA oil report today. Due to Columbus day, it will appear instead tomorrow at 11am.
yours.. .long Oil.
sp'60min
USO'60min
Summary
*Retail sales came in lousy, +0.1% m/m... although not apocalyptic.
--
So.. opening chop.. and equity bears are not showing any sign they will be able to muster any downside follow through to the 1990/80s.
Broadly..the 2030/40s still look viable by this Friday close... with a grander target of 2040/60 zone by the next FOMC of Oct'28th.
NFLX earnings at the close will be one to watch.
-
notable strength: DAL,
The break into the $48/49s..is rather significant.. and is one stock that is warning the market won't stop at sp'2040/60.
-
**despite what the cheerleaders on clown finance TV keep saying.. there is NO EIA oil report today. Due to Columbus day, it will appear instead tomorrow at 11am.
yours.. .long Oil.
Pre-Market Brief
Good morning. US equity futures are a little higher, sp +2pts, we're set to open at sp'2005. USD continues to cool, -0.2% in the DXY 94.50s. Gold -$1, with Oil +0.1%.
sp'60min
sp'weekly1b
Summary
Not much to add. There is clearly moderate threat of a brief foray to the sp'1990/80s, but really.. that is probably the best the bears can get in the immediate term.
Certainly, I don't expect any sustained action under the weekly 10MA... before we first test the 2040/60 zone.
--
early movers..
INTC -2.2%, post earnings
JPM -1.4%, earnings
--
Doomer chat, Hunter with Ackerman
--
Have a good Wednesday
sp'60min
sp'weekly1b
Summary
Not much to add. There is clearly moderate threat of a brief foray to the sp'1990/80s, but really.. that is probably the best the bears can get in the immediate term.
Certainly, I don't expect any sustained action under the weekly 10MA... before we first test the 2040/60 zone.
--
early movers..
INTC -2.2%, post earnings
JPM -1.4%, earnings
--
Doomer chat, Hunter with Ackerman
--
Have a good Wednesday
Upside into yet another FOMC
US equities closed broadly weak, but with a notable new cycle high of sp'2022. Further upside to the sp'2030/40s looks viable within the near term. The ultimate issue remains, can the market keep on pushing higher beyond key resistance of the 2040/60 zone.. or see a critical fail?
sp'weekly7
sp'monthly1b
Summary
*a notable second consecutive green candle on the weekly 'rainbow' chart.
--
The weekly MACD (green bar histogram) cycle is set to turn positive cycle within 1-2 weeks. If that is achieved, the 2100s.. and the threat of new historic highs will be viable before year end.
Naturally.. such talk will be considered heresy by some of you.. but the trend is unquestionably higher at the moment.
Equity bears FAILED to even hit the Oct' 2014 low of sp'1820, never mind the 1700s as had seemed briefly possible. Instead, 'normal service' has almost fully resumed, as talk continues of negative rates.. or even QE4. For now... this is no market for the bears.
--
Update from Oscar
--
Looking ahead
Wed' will see PPI, retail sales, and Bus' inventories. There is also a Fed Beige book due (2pm)
--
Upside to the next FOMC... or even beyond?
The next FOMC is Wed' Oct'28th, so we've a clear 10 trading days to go until that. Certainly, a rate hike looks very unlikely... not least after the recent weak monthly jobs data. Indeed, now it seems to be a case of how long until the ECB, BoE, or BoJ initiate more crazy policies.
Yours truly is long Oil. Naturally I am already underwater, but my entry looks reasonable, and given another 2-3 days I should be able to exit for a gain before the weekend.
I suppose things could be worse, I could still be holding short from when I waved the white flag in the sp'1960s. I'm well aware of some who are resolutely holding short, with the view that we're going to see another wave to the sp'1800s.. or even lower... no later than early 2016.
For the moment, I ain't shorting anything.
Goodnight from London
sp'weekly7
sp'monthly1b
Summary
*a notable second consecutive green candle on the weekly 'rainbow' chart.
--
The weekly MACD (green bar histogram) cycle is set to turn positive cycle within 1-2 weeks. If that is achieved, the 2100s.. and the threat of new historic highs will be viable before year end.
Naturally.. such talk will be considered heresy by some of you.. but the trend is unquestionably higher at the moment.
Equity bears FAILED to even hit the Oct' 2014 low of sp'1820, never mind the 1700s as had seemed briefly possible. Instead, 'normal service' has almost fully resumed, as talk continues of negative rates.. or even QE4. For now... this is no market for the bears.
--
Update from Oscar
--
Looking ahead
Wed' will see PPI, retail sales, and Bus' inventories. There is also a Fed Beige book due (2pm)
--
Upside to the next FOMC... or even beyond?
The next FOMC is Wed' Oct'28th, so we've a clear 10 trading days to go until that. Certainly, a rate hike looks very unlikely... not least after the recent weak monthly jobs data. Indeed, now it seems to be a case of how long until the ECB, BoE, or BoJ initiate more crazy policies.
Yours truly is long Oil. Naturally I am already underwater, but my entry looks reasonable, and given another 2-3 days I should be able to exit for a gain before the weekend.
I suppose things could be worse, I could still be holding short from when I waved the white flag in the sp'1960s. I'm well aware of some who are resolutely holding short, with the view that we're going to see another wave to the sp'1800s.. or even lower... no later than early 2016.
For the moment, I ain't shorting anything.
Goodnight from London
Daily Index Cycle update
US equity indexes closed broadly lower, sp -13pts @ 2003 (intra high
2022). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled significantly lower by -2.2%
and -1.4% respectively. Near term outlook is for renewed upside to the
2030/40s.. with critical resistance within the 2040/60 zone.
sp'daily5
Trans
Summary
Despite the sig' net daily decline, the Trans' remains on track for a test of the 200dma in the 8475/8500 zone... along with sp'2050/60s.
Clearly, that is out of range this week, but looks viable before end month.
--
a little more later...
sp'daily5
Trans
Summary
Despite the sig' net daily decline, the Trans' remains on track for a test of the 200dma in the 8475/8500 zone... along with sp'2050/60s.
Clearly, that is out of range this week, but looks viable before end month.
--
a little more later...
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