With equities seeing another swing, this time to the upside, the VIX was ground lower into the weekend, settling -15.6% @ 16.86. Near term outlook is offering broad equity upside into August, with the VIX set to cool to the low teens.. perhaps 12/11s.. before sustained 20s.. or even 30s in Sept/Oct.
VIX'60min
VIX'daily3
VIX'weekly
Summary
*net weekly gain of 0.2%.
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Certainly, the market saw some significant volatility this week, and we even saw the VIX briefly (as in minutes) break above the key 20 threshold.
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The bigger VIX weekly cycle is offering a second consecutive spiky top candle... and that bodes for further cooling into next month.
What is rather exciting though is that the next VIX up cycle - probably beginning after mid August, should see much higher levels.. at least to the 25/30 zone.
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US equity indexes closed the week with significant gains, sp +25pts @ 2076. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 1.8% and 1.4% respectively. Near term outlook is bullish into August, so long as the Greek banks reopen next week.. which should placate the angry populace for at least a few weeks.
sp'60min
Summary
... and a particularly roller coaster week comes to a close.
Frankly, I'm pretty burnt out... and I know many are dizzy after the price swings this week.
What should be clear... we have a double floor of sp'2044, which looks increasing secure... along with VIX maxing out at 20.05.
Best guess: broad upside into August, at least to the sp'2110/20s. Whether the market can see a mini blow off top.. somewhere in the 2150/2200 zone... difficult to say.
Considering the recent price action, new historic highs - even in the stronger sp'500/Dow, look difficult.
For the moment, I won't be short anything... and will merely take occasional minor long positions.
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Thanks for the comments this week.. well.. most of them.
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*the usual bits and pieces across the evening to wrap up the week
Despite some significant down waves this week, most US indexes are (somewhat surprisingly) set for net weekly gains. VIX is reflecting a market that is increasingly confident into the weekend, -16% in the 16.70s. USD remains moderately weak, -0.6% in the DXY 95.90s.
sp'daily5
sp'weekly
Summary
It has been a long week, and barring some closing hour news... I will be back at the close.
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US equity indexes are holding significant gains, with some indexes set for net weekly gains. The VIX has seen a clear break outside of the upward trend, set to settle in the 17.50/16.75 zone. Metals are increasingly weak, Gold -$3, whilst Oil -0.9%
sp'daily5
VIX'daily3
Summary
Little to add...
I would imagine many will be glad for the weekend.. after the dizzying intraday swings this week.
Broadly, it does look like the US market will battle upward into August... along with China. The real issue remains the possibility of more severe downside into Sept/Oct.
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Another warm.. and somewhat sunny day in the big city.
US equities are holding significant gains, with the bull maniacs needing sp'2077 for a fractional net weekly gain. VIX continues to reflect a market that is increasingly confident of another Greek can kick, -13% in the 17s. USD remains weak, -0.6% in the DXY 95.90s.
sp'daily5
Summary
*Yellen is currently doing a Q & A, and Mr Market is listening....
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Little to add.
It does look like the gains will hold into the weekend, the only issue is whether the bulls can somehow manage to claw into the 2080s.. and hold there for the close.
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notable strength: QCOM, +1.5%
daily
*I rarely mention QCOM, but probably will in the coming weeks. It looks a valid short in mid/late August.. from around $68. Downside target would be...56/55.. by early Oct'. I like the company in the longer term though.
Unlike yesterday, after some moderate cooling to sp'2066, US equities are building gains, set to break into the 2080s. VIX is reflective of a market that is increasingly confident that some kind of Greek resolution will be achieved.. kicking the infamous can, at least a little further across the summer.
sp'daily5
VIX'daily3
Summary
*special note.. Yellen is due to speak this hour
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The daily equity/VIX charts are starting to look rather good for those on the long side.
Best case for the Friday close.. sp'2080/85.. with VIX 16s.... that would be suggestive - from a chart perspective, that there will be a Greek deal.
notable strength: AAPL +2.6% in the $123s.
weakness: oil/gas drillers, RIG/SDRL, both lower by around -3%... not helped by today's lower Oil price.
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VIX update from Mr T.
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time to see what the cheerleaders on clown finance TV are saying
US equities have cooled from sp'2076.. to 2066. Price action remains shaky... as the Greek situation remains unresolved - despite the somewhat increasing confidence that a resolution is due. USD is cooling, -0.8% in the DXY 95.80s. Commodities are slipping, Gold -$2, with Oil -1.0%.
sp'60min
UUP, daily2
Summary
re: USD. A break of trend.. sub $25s would offer clarity that renewed downside into August is due.. the low 24s would be a valid target.. before the next grand wave higher into next year.
A weaker dollar of course, should help prop up most asset classes... at least to some extent.
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So.. here we are again... equities cooling -0.5% in the first 90 minutes.
The opening VIX reversal candle was indeed a warning, but unlike yesterday, I just don't think the recent sp'2044 is going to be broken under.
*It increasingly annoys me though.. how the US market is hostage to almost ANY sporadic Greek related news headline. Its really tiresome... after FIVE years.
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notable strength: AAPL, +2.3%
Bulls should be seeking a move above $125 across the next week or two... not least with earnings (Tue, July 21st).
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11.22am.. Well, unlike yesterday, we're pushing back higher... with VIX -14% in the 17.10s...
notable strength: airlines, DAL/UAL, both higher by 3.8%
US equities open significantly higher, sp +21pts @ 2071. Unlike yesterday though, there is arguably a clear break of the down trend.. as also reflected in the VIX, -11% in the 17.70s. USD is sig' weak, -0.9% in the DXY 95.70s. Metals are a touch weak, Gold -$1, with Oil -.0.3%
sp'daily5
VIX'daily3
Summary
*opening reversal candle in the VIX.... just like yesterday. However, I'm somewhat dismissive of it.
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Thank the gods.. its almost the weekend... I need to rest!
The sp'2044 is now 1.4% lower, and increasingly secure.. the longer it is held.
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notable strength: AAPL, +1.6%.. and coming earnings should be fine, right?
weakness: TLT -1.5%.. very natural.. as equities make another attempt to rally
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10.01am. wholesale trade.. +0.8%... vs 0.3% expected. Hmm... inventories up.... sales still lacking....
10.06am.. something to look for at the close... VIX rising trend will be around 17.75. Any close under there.. should confirm equity strength into August.
Good morning. Futures are sharply higher on yet more chatter that the Greeks might be close to a deal, sp' +23pts, we're set to open above key resistance (2068), at 2074. USD is on the slide, -1.0% in the DXY 95.60s. Metals are flat, whilst Oil is +0.9% in the $53s.
sp'daily5
Summary
So.. here we go again.. we're set for another powerfully bullish open.
Unlike yesterday though, we're going to break straight above declining resistance.. and that is a much more positive situation than yesterday.
A net weekly gain is now viable, with a close in the sp'2075/85 zone... along with VIX 17/16s.
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notable early movers (very similar to the Thursday open)
FXI (1x China long) +4.7%
YINN (3x long) +14%
TVIX/UVXY -10%... XIV (1x short VIX) +4.7%
AAPL +1.4%.. in the $121s.
TSLA +2.7%.. as the momo stocks catch a bid.
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Update from Oscar
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Doom chatter from Hunter
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Overnight China action: The market opened a little lower, but then soared, settling higher for the second consecutive day, +4.5% @ 3877. Further upside looks due into August... 4300/500.. .before renewed weakness after mid August.. into early Oct. Downside would be to either 3K.. or even 2500.
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Have a good Friday
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9.35am.. a clear break of the down trend.... first target the recent high of sp'2085.
VIX -12% in the 17.40s.. a weekly close in the 16s is now viable.. if sp'2080s.
*I am largely refraining from any comments on the latest absurb Greek deal/offer... but yes... it IS bizarre that they are now looking to agree to something the people voted against last Sunday.
The Thursday trading session saw Chinese equities experience further swings, breaking a new cycle low of 3373, but then rallying strongly into the close, settling +5.8% @ 3709. A wave higher is due into August, with a primary target zone of 4300/500.
China, daily
Summary
Little to add, but it does seem many of the other world markets are increasingly looking to China as a means to pick a direction.
My original downside target from 5K were the 3400s... with that being hit.. a natural bounce seems due into next month. If correct, that will certainly help 'inspire' many other markets.
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As for the US market...
sp'weekly
With one day left of a rather volatile week, we're currently net lower by -1.2%. Considering there won't likely be any provisional Greek deal until the weekend at least... the equity bears are set for their third consecutive net weekly decline, the weakest trading period since early January.
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Looking ahead
Friday will see wholesale trade data.
*there are two fed officials on the loose. Notably, Fed chair Yellen is set to speak, and Mr Market will surely be listening. I would imagine a press release of the speech will be issued at 12pm, and the algo-bots will likely have some reaction to that.
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Meanwhile... from another bunker...
... indeed, bring me the head of the false prophet... Jim Cramer.
US equities closed moderately higher, sp +4pts @ 2051 (intra
high 2074) . The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.6% and
0.4% respectively. Near term outlook is for renewed upside, but the
market will need to see some sort of Greek deal provisionally agreed by
early next week.. otherwise... new lows will occur.
sp'daily5
R2K
Trans
Summary
Net daily gains across all the main indexes, but the vast bulk of the opening gains were lost, with weakness all the way into the close.
Frankly, a fair few of the closing daily candles bode strongly in favour of the bears... and with the sp'2044 low a mere 7pts lower... it won't take of a market scare to gap under that.
It would seem the bulls have a problem into the weekly close.
