US equities opened moderately higher, but price action was choppy. There was a secondary wave higher into the late afternoon. Volatility remains broadly subdued, with the VIX settling -6.8% at 12.61. I do not expect the recent historic high of 3017 to be broken above before rate cut'1. Instead, I'd look for a cooling wave to 2971/41.
Rate cut views
First, its notable that only a collective 24% expect 3 or 4 rate cuts before year end. Second, almost a quarter expect rates to be held next Wednesday.
Yours truly holds to a July 31st rate cut of -25bps to 2.00/2.25%, with a probable early end to the QT program. I expect 3 or 4 rate cuts before year end, and that doesn't even assume any recessionary econ-data.
|Koreans departing London|
|Even some English are making an escape|
|... as its just another day on the London streets|
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Goodnight from London
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