Tuesday 23 July 2019

Tuesday gains

US equity indexes closed moderately higher,  sp +20pts (0.7%) at 3005. Nasdaq comp' +0.6%. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.9% and +0.6% respectively. Near term outlook offers another rollover, with natural target of 2971/41.




US equities opened moderately higher, but price action was choppy. There was a secondary wave higher into the late afternoon. Volatility remains broadly subdued, with the VIX settling -6.8% at 12.61. I do not expect the recent historic high of 3017 to be broken above before rate cut'1. Instead, I'd look for a cooling wave to 2971/41.

Rate cut views

First, its notable that only a collective 24% expect 3 or 4 rate cuts before year end. Second, almost a quarter expect rates to be held next Wednesday.

Yours truly holds to a July 31st rate cut of -25bps to 2.00/2.25%, with a probable early end to the QT program. I expect 3 or 4 rate cuts before year end, and that doesn't even assume any recessionary econ-data.

Koreans departing London

Even some English are making an escape

... as its just another day on the London streets
New PM Boris Johnson, along with London Major Khan have a mission impossible challenge. Maybe they'll also just fly away to a far better place? 

Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EDT) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
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