Wednesday 9 August 2017

Washing out

US equity indexes closed somewhat mixed, sp -0.9pts at 2474. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled u/c and -0.9% respectively. VIX settled +1.4% at 11.11. Near term outlook offers a washout within the sp'2435/25 zone, before resuming upward to the 2500s in September.




US equities opened moderately lower, whilst most other world markets saw sig' declines. There was naturally a bounce, with most indexes leaning upward into the close.

Yesterday's high of 2490.87 marks a key short term high. Prime downside target remains 2435, as a partial gap fill of 2435/25 remains a very basic target.

Market volatility is finally picking up, with the VIX opening in the 12s, and managing to settle higher (if fractionally) for a second day. SP'2435 would arguably equate to the mid teens... much like the washout in mid May.

Something to consider

Its a huge issue, but I thought I would throw this one out there...

sp'weekly5 - wave count/fib retrace.

A 50% retrace of the gains from 2009 would take the US market to the mid 1500s, an effective back test of the 2000/2007 double top.

To be clear though, right now, there is still zero reason for anyone (other than day trading maniacs) from attempting to short this market, as the mid term trends are still (almost entirely) intact.

*ohh, and yes... commodities, oil/metals have largely failed to participate, but I thought I'd leave the legacy note (from 2-3 years ago) on there.

Goodnight from London