Wednesday, 15 August 2018

Strong USD concerns

US equity indexes closed broadly weak, sp -21pts (0.7%) at 2818. The Nasdaq comp' settled -1.2% at 7774. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled u/c and -1.3% respectively. Near term outlook offers capitulation in the sp'2760s, before swinging back upward.


sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities opened moderately lower, dragged lower by significant weakness in other world markets. The sp' unravelled to 2802 in early morning, before a series of moderate swings that continued into the late afternoon.

Volatility naturally spiked higher, with the VIX seeing a peak of 16.86, the highest level since July 2nd. There was cooling into the close, with the VIX settling in the mid 14s.
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USD, monthly (EOD Aug'15th)


The King of fiat land remains the USD. Note the macd (blue bar histogram) bullish cross, as momentum is now fractionally positive. A move from the DXY 96s to the giant 100 threshold isn't a bold target, given another 2-3 months. If correct, bearish implications... especially for the precious metals... within a rising rate environment. 
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Open day

Thursday Aug'16th will be open day at http://subscriber.permabeardoomster.com, and for you non-subscribers out there, it will give you an opportunity to follow me across the day. Thursdays tend to be pretty dynamic, so it should be an interesting day, not least with Nvidia earnings due in AH. First post will appear by 8.30am EDT.




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Tuesday, 14 August 2018

Tuesday bounce

US equity indexes closed moderately higher, sp +18pts (0.6%) at 2840. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.8% and +1.0% respectively. VIX settled -9.9% at 13.31. Near term outlook threatens another swing lower from the 2850s.


sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities opened moderately, but the gains were pretty shaky, and the market almost came close to turning negative. The buyers did appear though, and the market battled upward into the closing hour.

Volatility naturally cooled, with the VIX settling in the 13s. S/t outlook offers the sp'2850s with VIX 12/11s. Thursday will lean to the equity bears, whilst Friday will favour chop for opex.
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Monday, 13 August 2018

A fourth day lower

US equity indexes closed a little weak, sp -11pts (0.4%) at 2821. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, both settled -0.6%. VIX settled +12.3% to 14.78. Near term outlook offers a bounce to the 2850/60s.


sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

It was a choppy day to begin the week, mostly leaning on the bearish side. The sp' swung from a pre-market/overnight decline of around -18pts, opening fractionally higher, and clawing to 2843. There was renewed cooling to break under last Friday's low, with a new spike floor of 2819, climbing to 2832, before closing hour cooling.

Volatility climbed for a third day, with the VIX settling just above resistance of the mid 14s. The 17/18s are clearly viable in the near term.

Best guess, s/t upside for 1-2 days to the sp'2850/60s. It won't take much of an excuse to see a bounce. Whilst Thursday generally favours the bears, Friday opex will lean to chop.
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Bonus chart: Turkey'100


A Monday decline of -2.4%, which is arguably somewhat impressive considering the ongoing Lira crisis. Note the macd bearish cross, which does lean to the Turkish bears in the immediate term.
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Saturday, 11 August 2018

Weekend update - US equity indexes

It was a mixed week for US equity indexes, with net weekly changes ranging from +0.80% (R2K), +0.35% (Nasdaq comp'), -0.06% (Trans), -0.25% (sp'500), -0.59% (Dow), to -0.85% (nyse comp'). Near term outlook offers a s/t cooling of 2-3%, before resuming upward.


Lets take our regular look at six of the main US indexes (monthly candle charts)

sp'500


The sp' broke a new multi-month high of 2863, but settled net lower for the week by -0.25% to 2830. The s/t outlook offers cooling to the 2760s, before resuming upward. More broadly, the m/t trend from early 2016 remains strong. Note underlying macd (blue bar histogram) cycle, currently ticking upward for a second month. Further, note the key 10MA at 2722.

Big target remains the 2950/3047 zone, where there will be multiple aspects of resistance. Whilst my original year end target was 3245, after the late Jan>early April price action, I would be surprised to see a break >3047 before year end.


Nasdaq comp'


The Nasdaq settled the week +0.35% to 7839. The m/t trend remains powerfully bullish, as regardless of any s/t cooling, the 8000s look due, whether by late August... or not until September.


Dow


The mighty Dow broke a multi-month high of 25692, but settled the week net lower by -0.59% to 25313. Note upper monthly bollinger, which is currently offering new historic highs in the 26800s. The equity bears should be desperate for a monthly close under the key 10MA, currently at 24785. That does not look likely before October.


NYSE comp'


The master index was the laggard this week, with a net decline of -0.85%. More broadly, its very notable that price momentum seen via the macd (blue bar histogram) cycle has been fractionally negative for the past three months. It does merit as a 'mild concern'.


R2K


The second market leader saw a net weekly gain of 0.8% to 1686. More broadly, the R2K is net higher for a sixth consecutive month. New historic highs (>1708) look extremely probable.


Trans


The 'old leader' broke a multi-month high of 11253, but settled net lower for the week by -0.06% to 11090. S/t bearish, with rather easy downside of around 3%. The tranny has been helped via a six week cooling wave in WTIC. Any renewed strength in oil - as seems due into late summer, will be a drag on the tranny, but that doesn't mean the index/sector will be net lower.



Summary

Two indexes were net higher, with four net lower.

The Nasdaq comp' and the R2K were notably strong, whilst the Dow and nyse comp' were the laggards.

The s/t outlook offers cooling of 2-3%, but the m/t trend is unquestionably bullish, with a series of higher highs and higher lows.

YTD performance:


The Nasdaq continues to lead the way, currently net higher by 13.5%, the sp'500 +6.0%, with the broader nyse comp' lagging at +0.3%.
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Looking ahead

Key earnings: HD, M, CSCO, WMT, AMAT, NVDA, and DE



M -
T - Import/export prices
W - Retail sales, empire state manu', product/costs, indust' prod', bus' invent', housing market index, and the EIA pet' report.
T - Weekly jobs, housing starts, phil' fed
F - Consumer sent', leading indicators.  *OPEX*
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Thursday Aug'16th will be open day at http://subscriber.permabeardoomster.com, and for you non-subscribers out there, it will give you a good opportunity to see what I offer. First post will appear by 8.30am EDT.

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Have a good weekend
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*the next post on this page will likely appear 5pm EDT on Monday.

Friday, 10 August 2018

Turkish inspired weakness

US equity indexes closed moderately lower, sp -20pts (0.7%) at 2833. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.4% and -0.2% respectively. VIX settled +16.8% at 13.16. Near term outlook offers a Mon/Tuesday bounce, but technical necessity of sp'2768 is long overdue.


sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

The implosion of the Turkish Lira riled up the European markets, which naturally infected the US. However, the sp' only opened moderately lower, with an early low of 2831, and then a bounce to 2842. A secondary cooling wave (pressured by the strengthening USD in the DXY 96s) saw a closing hour low of 2825, but then swinging back upward.

VIX jumped, seeing a high of 13.82. With a closing hour mini equity recovery, the VIX cooled, settling +16.8% at 13.16. S/t outlook offers an equity bounce Mon/Tuesday, if only to fill this morning's gap of 2839/53. Further downside to minimum technical necessity of 2768 is long overdue.
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Bonus chart: Turkey, Borsa Istanbul 100, daily


The Turkish equity market saw some powerful swings, settling the day -2.3% at 94939, well above the hyper spike low of 88598. More broadly, its been a rough year, having cooled from a Jan' high of 121531. Note the black-fail candle, marking a key multi-month top. Cyclically, due a bearish macd cross early next week, and threatens new lows for the year.

As for Turkish President Erdogan, after Trump announced plans to hike tariffs on Steel and Aluminum, I'm almost surprised he didn't order the banks to close today, but there is always next week for that desperate measure.

yours... bearish capital controls
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*the weekend post will appear Sat'12pm EDT, and will detail the US equity indexes.
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Thursday, 9 August 2018

Strength within Tech

US equity indexes closed a little mixed, sp -4pts (0.1%) at 2853. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.3% and +0.2% respectively. VIX settled +3.9% at 11.27. The s/t cyclical setup offers new historic highs >sp'2872 within 1-2 days.


sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

It was another day of micro chop for the sp'500, if leaning a little weak into the close for a second day. Volatility remained broadly subdued, breaking a new multi-month low of 10.17. The s/t cyclical equity setup does favour the bulls into the weekend.
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Bonus chart: Nasdaq comp' monthly, 20yr


The Nasdaq comp' settled higher for an eighth consecutive day, and is higher for a fifth consecutive month. The 8000s are clearly viable within the immediate term. Just consider this: 8000 is 60% above old resistance of psy'5K. I'd agree the 9000s look a stretch before year end.
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Wednesday, 8 August 2018

Midweek chop

US equity indexes closed a little weak, sp -0.7pts at 2857. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.4% and -0.1% respectively. VIX settled -0.7% at 10.85. Near term outlook offers moderate cooling on Thursday to the 2840s.

sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

It was a day of minor chop, with the sp' settling effectively u/c. Volatility was naturally subdued, melting lower for a fifth day.

There is threat of a sporadic cooling wave of 2-3% to the sp'2760s, and yours truly is not the only one open to such a s/t mini washout...


In any case, the m/t trend is unquestionably bullish, with the sp' on track to hit the 2950/3047 zone as early as mid/late September. Then things might get real interesting.
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Tuesday, 7 August 2018

Tesla Tuesday

US equity indexes closed moderately higher, sp +8pts (0.3%) at 2858. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.5% and +0.2% respectively. VIX settled -3.0% at 10.93. Near term outlook offers minor cooling to the 2830s.

sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

It was another day for the equity bulls, with the sp' breaking a new multi-month high of 2863. There was a subtle late afternoon cyclical rollover, and it does offer the 2830s on Wednesday. That would still leave two legacy gaps to the 2760s, and right now.. that looks out of range. New historic highs remain on track before end month.

Volatility was naturally subdued, with the VIX melting lower for a fourth consecutive day.
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Bonus chart: TSLA, monthly


It was certainly a day of drama for Tesla. First, its notable that today's high of $387.46, didn't quite break a new historic high. It does look likely that Tesla will be taken private. Most important of all... most of the existing shareholders will not be selling, and thus is won't likely cost some kind of investment fund more than a few billion. So, before year end, it'll be time to delete the Tesla chart and ticker from our trading platforms.
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Monday, 6 August 2018

A new multi-month high

US equity indexes closed moderately higher, sp +10pts (0.4%) at 2850. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, both settled +0.6%. Near term outlook offers another s/t cooling wave, at least to re-test the 2800/2790s. Min' technical retrace remains 2768.


sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities opened in minor chop mode, but with no downside pressure, resumed into the same algo-bot melt mode that we saw last Thurs/Friday. The sp' broke a new multi-month high of 2853.29, just fractionally shy of fully filling the last upside gap (2822/2853.53).

Volatility was naturally subdued, with the VIX settling in the low 11s. A sporadic spike to the 15/16s is entirely viable later this week.
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Bonus chart: China, monthly


Monday saw a net daily decline of -1.3% to 2705... approaching the July low of 2691. This is getting ugly again, as the US/China trade war is already seeing a clear victor... at least in equity prices.
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Saturday, 4 August 2018

Weekend update - World equity markets

It was a bullish month for world equity markets, with net monthly gains ranging from 8.9% (Brazil), 4.7% (USA), 4.1% (Germany), +3.5% (France), 2.6% (Spain), 1.6% (Russia), 1.2% (Australia), 1.1% (Japan), 1.0% (China), to 0.5% (Greece) Near term outlook offers further upside into Sept/Oct.


Lets take our regular look at ten of the world equity markets

USA - Dow


The mighty Dow gained 1143pts (4.7%) to settle July at 25415. Note the monthly settlement above the key 10MA. Underlying macd (green bar histogram) is seeing the downward swing in price momentum from January level out. A bearish macd cross is currently being avoided, and this bodes well for at least another few months.


Germany – DAX


The economic powerhouse of the EU - Germany, saw the DAX +499pts (4.1%) to 12805, notably above the key 10MA. We have a very clear divergence between price momentum and actual price across 2015>2018. Things would turn exceptionally bearish if core rising trend is broken, and in August that is currently around 11800s.


Japan – Nikkei


Japanese equities gained 249pts (1.1%) to 22553. The m/t trend remains bullish. The long term outlook remains 'beyond problematic', as a demographic collapse is inevitable.


China – Shanghai comp'


Chinese equities swung from an intra month low of 2691, to settle +29pts (1.0%) at 2876. The July candle offers a spike floor, having cooled from January. The Friday Aug'3rd close of 2740 is a problem though.


Brazil – Bovespa


After a rough May/June, the Bovespa caught a very powerful bounce, settling +6457pts (8.9%) to 79220. Despite the gain, monthly price momentum is negative, for the first time since early 2016.


Russia - RTSI


The Russian equity market gained 19pts (1.6%) to 1173. The 1200 threshold remains key. Higher energy prices would really help this market.


France – CAC


The CAC settled +187pts (3.5%) to 5511, notably back above the key 10MA. Next big target is the June 2007 high of 6168.


Spain – IBEX


The Spanish market gained 248pts (2.6%) to 9870. The m/t trend remains bearish from early 2017. Note giant resistance of 12k. Things would turn extremely bearish <8500, but that is a long way down.


Australia – AORD


Australian equities climbed for a fourth consecutive month, breaking a new multi-year high, gaining 76pts (1.2%) to 6366.


Greece - Athex


The economic basket-case of the EU - Greece, gained 3pts (0.5%) to 761, notably under the key 10MA. The Athex is a perfect reflection of a Greek economy that never recovered from the global financial crisis of 2008/09.
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Summary

All ten world equity markets saw net July gains.

Brazil, USA, and Germany lead the way higher, with China and Greece lagging.

The m/t outlook offers at least another 2-3 months of upside.
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Looking ahead

Earnings season continues, notably: TWLO, SNAP, DIS, ROKU, DBX


M -
T - Consumer credit (3pm)
W - EIA Pet' report
T - Weekly jobs, PPI, Wholesale trade
F - CPI, US T-budget
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Have a good weekend
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