With the US equity market breaking new historic highs, the VIX was naturally lower. The VIX saw net weekly declines of a very significant -10.9%, settling at 10.85. The near term outlook offers a minor spike to 13/14, before further weakness into mid July.
VIX'daily3
VIX'weekly
Summary
Suffice to say, the VIX remains extremely low, but this situation could last many weeks..perhaps even months.
As it is, I am STILL holding to a viable brief.. but very sharp down wave in equities later this summer, and that would most certainly offer VIX in the 25/35 zone.
*I have NO interest in picking up any bullish VIX positions until at least July'16th.
US equities closed the week on a positive note, sp +3pts @ 1962. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.2% and 0.4% respectively. Near term outlook remains bullish into the sp'1970s, the 80/90s do not look viable until mid July.
sp'60min
Summary
So..another week for the equity bulls, and it has been a pretty impressive rally from the recent key low of sp'1814. Even the 1900 threshold is now a clear 3% lower, and I don't expect that to be breached until late July.. at the earliest.
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*I want to express my thanks to all those who have commented this week, it makes all the difference.
I will hold a single position across the weekend, WFM, which remains a real disappointment, but hey, I've until mid July before time runs out on that one.. not least if the main market peaks around then.
Sincerely... have a good weekend
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The usual bits and pieces to wrap up the trading day... across the evening.
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**the weekend update will be on the US weekly indexes
US indexes look set for a weekly close somewhere in the sp'1955/65 zone, which will make for the tenth consecutive green candle on the 'rainbow' chart. Without question, the primary trend remains strong, as this market confidence is reflected in a VIX that is battling just to hold the 11/10s.
sp'weekly8b
Summary
Ten green candles...the strongest up wave of the year so far.
Thank the gods...its almost the weekend.. I'm burnt out.
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time for another kick off...
Switzerland vs France..... I'm with the French on this one.
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3.05pm... I should note my thanks for those who have said hello this week....always good to hear from you.
*I will hold across the weekend my WFM position, which remains an obvious train wreck. The 42s next week look a... challenge.
3.40pm.. chop chop chop...a close in the low sp'1960s...incredible.
WFM failing to hold the $39 level, the last line is $38.75.. anything under that....and its likely done for the summer.
US indexes are merely in classic opex churn mode. The only anomaly is the VIX, which is holding moderate gains of 3%, but still in the 10s! Metals remain a touch weak, Gold -$3.
sp'60min
Summary
The minor opex churn continues... two hours left of what has been another week for the bulls.
As for my WFM..which is indeed nothing less than a train wreck this week...
60min
Last line in the sand is 38.75 or so.. any daily closes under that..and its over. From a pure hourly price perspective, it is due an up wave..but.. even the $40 threshold is a fair way higher.
Equities will likely see increasing chop into the late afternoon, on what should be a standard quad-opex. Despite the current minor index gains, the VIX is slightly higher, +2%. Metals are moderately lower, Gold -$4.
sp'60min
Summary
*the Italian/Costa Rica game is making for a welcome distraction.
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There really isn't much to add.
It is merely another week for the equity bulls. There is plenty of talk of a wave lower to the 1940s, but there remains the obvious threat that we'll just keep clawing higher.
US equities look set for minor chop into the late afternoon. Whether we see a weekly close in the sp'1960s...or 50s should be of no concern to the bulls..or least of all...the bears. The broader trend remains outright bullish.
sp'60min
Summary
Little to add..
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VIX update from Mr T
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time for Italy vs Costa Rica.... and some lunch :)
US indexes are holding minor gains, and look set for chop across the rest of the day, on what should be a pretty standard quad-opex. Metals are reversing from opening moderate declines, with Gold just 50 cents lower.
sp'60min
Summary
Little to add on will likely be a quiet day.
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Coming up at 12pm EST... Italy vs Costa Rica....which is an important game for the depressed English fans to follow.
US indexes open moderately higher, with a new sp'500 high of 1962. Metals are little weak, but that makes for a pretty natural minor retrace (Gold -$7) after a huge Thursday gain. VIX looks set to melt lower into the weekend.
sp'daily5
Summary
So...new highs...on quad-opex.
Without question, I'd look for increasing chop into the late afternoon, but certainly, no major down waves..as if.
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Another 3 World cup games later today, and they should make for good viewing.. into the weekend.
Good morning. Futures are moderately higher, sp +3pts , we're set to open at a new historic high of 1962. Precious metals are a little lower, Gold -$5. Equities look set for a weekly close in the sp'1960/65 zone, with 1970s viable next Mon/Tuesday.
sp'weekly8b
Summary
Well, new highs are due....not surprisingly.
Price structure was a baby bull flag on the hourly chart, and there is little reason why the bulls won't close the week on a high.
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Good wishes for Friday trading.
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9.33am. With the move to the sp'1960s, the monthly 'rainbow' charts have turned outright bullish, for the first time since last December.
It was another day of new historic highs, with the sp'500 at 1959, and the NYSE Comp' at 11006. Near term outlook is bullish into Friday quad-opex, and perhaps next Mon/Tuesday. A moderate down cycle of 2-3% looks likely within the next week or two.
sp'weekly8b
NYSE comp', weekly
Summary
So..we look set to close the week with a TENTH consecutive green candle on the 'rainbow' weekly chart. Incredible.
There is absolutely nothing bearish in the near term, but if my (vain) attempt at a wave count is correct, we should see a minor fall within the next week or two. I have little interest in trying to trade such minor waves, and will instead merely look to pick up another index-long.
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Closing update from Mr Riley
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Looking ahead
There is nothing scheduled tomorrow. The day will merely be about how the market copes with quad-opex... so.. expect some chop..especially in the latter part of the day.
*next sig' QE is not until next Monday.
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Tired..and looking forward to the weekend
I bailed on CHK today, it was a stock that just didn't do much for the past week..dead money. I still like the company though, Energy/Gas is a good sector for the long run.
As for WFM...well, the daily chart...
WFM is proving to be more annoying than I had feared, and its possible the stock just wants to do a classic back test of the original break.. in the $39s. I'm still reasonably confident of upside to the $48/50 zone, which is possible in July.
A long weekend of World Cup football is ahead... and for that... I am thankful.
