Monday 25 November 2013

Volatility battling for the low teens

With the main indexes seeing a little weakness in the closing hour, the VIX managed to hold minor gains, settling +4.3% @ 12.79. There is opportunity for a brief move into the 14/15s...but the 20s remain off the table until next year.




Little to add. Near term the 14/15s....before equity bulls push higher again.

VIX looks unlikely to break into the 20s until late Jan/Feb, when the debt ceiling/budget issues will once again arise.

more later..on the indexes

Closing Brief

The main indexes closed mixed, sp -2pts @ 1802. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.3% and -0.01% respectively. There is near term opportunity for 1-2% decline, but even if that occurs, there remains relentless upside into December..and early 2014.



*certainly, a somewhat weak closing hour, and it bodes for a weak Tuesday..and probably also Wednesday.

Overall though, a quiet day...for what will likely be a quiet week.

Ohh, and with such light trading, it will be laughable if some of the bears get overly excited about a 0.5/1.0% decline.

the usual bits and pieces across the evening.

3pm update - closing hour rollover?

The hourly index charts are highly suggestive of a rollover into Tuesday. Indeed, equity bears have a window of no sig' QE until at least Friday morning. Regardless, near term downside is no more than 1.5/2.0% at most. Metals are battling higher, Gold +$6, with Silver +0.8%.



So...sub'5 complete?

If yes..then 'moderate downside' for the next 5-7 trading days.which takes us into next week/December.
I sure have no interest in trying to chase 15/25pts to the downside, whilst there remains relentless 'underlying upside pressure'.

I'm tired of playing that game.

Notable strength in UAL.

Upside target is the 2007 double top in the $48s. So..$8... (20%) to go into spring 2014.

3.12pm.. ohh the humanity..the indexes are turning red..sp'1802.

3.17pm.. first downside support is 1795. A micro bounce from that.and then the 1780s into Wednesday. point getting overly excited about this kind of minor move.

3.26pm..well, sub'5 looks to be confirmed complete at 1808

Downside of 1.5/ the low 1770s.

3.37pm...Tuesday looks set for a weak open..maybe Dow -75/100pts..before a bounce.

Interesting micro double top on the sp' today at 1808...I wonder how many were shorting that this afternoon!

3.52pm.. certainly, a somewhat weak closing hour.. and bodes bearish for early Tuesday..if not also confirmed sub'5 top at 1808.

back at the close!

2pm update - no downside power..yet

The indexes are making a play to climb into the late afternoon. Equity bears are so far still displaying no downside power, and with another $3bn of QE-pomo money out there today, why wouldn't we just melt higher into the close? Metals are moderately mixed, whilst Oil -0.8%



A quiet start to the week...and broadly speaking, it'll likely remain quiet until next month.

Sure, there are some interesting moves in individual stocks/commodities, but overall...not much to see in terms of the indexes.

Notable weakness in TWTR

Along with FB (target $35)...seems little reason why TWTR won't slip to the next psy' level of $30. Even if the broader market climbs into year end - as I suspect, a lot of the momo stocks look damn tired.

1pm update - lost in the minor noise

The near term in the indexes is a little tricky, not least with it being a  holiday week. At best, equity bears have a chance at knocking the market 20/30pts lower, back to the sp'1770s..before renewed upside. Without question though, underlying pressure remains to the upside.



So..has sub'5 of 3 completed? I guess many will say yes to that.

As I will keep saying though, whilst the bigger weekly/monthly charts remain outright bullish, the market is arguably untradeable..from the short-side.

Attempts trying to guess..and capture such minor downside waves of 0.5..or even 1.5% are overly risky..vs. the general trend.

I sure won't be trying.

Notable weakness in RIG, which is approaching a very obvious gap zone.

My upside target remains the end of Q2 ' 2014. I realise that is a pretty bold call, but is highly under-valued on any basis, by at least the main market.

12pm update - mining stocks break the summer lows

Whilst the main indexes battle to hold minor gains, there is some interesting action in the miners..and the metals  Miners - via GDX, have taken out the June lows, and metals will likely follow in the days/weeks ahead.

GDX, daily

SLV, daily3


*H/S target on SLV remains $17, which would equate to Gold -$100 from current levels.

With the summer 2013 low taken out on GDX, there really isn't any support until the $20 psy level, but even then..the 2008 low in the $15s look just as likely.

Metals remain weak, and look set for much lower levels as the week develops.

FB remains a particular one to watch.With support broken..I'm looking for $35

VIX update from Mr T.

time for tea

11am update - morning chop

After the Nasdaq Comp' broke the big 4k level, the indexes are seeing some minor chop. No doubt, the sig' QE-pomo is helping negate what little sell side pressure there is this morning. Metals are weak, with Oil -0.9%.



Like many, I am looking for the top of sub'5 - of 3. Difficult to judge...and as I will keep saying, I don't think the short side is tradeable anyway.

More interesting right now than the indexes...

Notable weakness in FB, TWTR.

FB, daily'2

I really like the H/S outlook, which would target a rather obvious $35..possibly 32.

As for TWTR, still early days, but if it can't hold a daily close in the $40s...$10 lower would be likely.

The following is certainly not the most inspiring story - Twitter Robot factory.

10am update - new week, new gains

Good morning, and welcome to a shortened holiday week. The equity bulls have achieved the third key psy level..Nasdaq Comp' @ 4k. Anyone dare doubt that the March' 2000 high of 5132 will be taken out in another year or two? Metals are flat, with Oil starting the week -0.8%

Nasdaq, daily



*note the upper bol on the sp', now in the 1810s. Certainly, 1815/20 is possible this week, with 1825/35 viable next week.

Well.. here we what is a 3.5 day trading week. Trading will probably be even lighter than the past few weeks.

*there is sig' QE bears face the usual problems.

Notable mover... FB , -1.9%.

From a price perspective, a daily close in the 44s..will open up a H/S target of $35

10.03am.. FB snaps.. -4%..and arguably starting to confirm the floor has just been removed.

There is a pretty clear $9 to fall..across the weeks..and next month or two. 

10.08am.. indexes offering black-fail candles...sub'5 might be complete.

A week of chop ahead? After all, at best..25/30pts lower.

Regardless, new highs were hit..and primary trend remains to the upside!