Closing Brief

Another very quiet day for the US equity market, but again, achieving new historic highs for the Trans, Dow, and sp'500 (2041), settling +1.5pts @ 2039. A retrace remains on the menu, but with each passing day, the viable downside target is somewhat higher.


sp'60min

Summary

A semi-holiday for the market.. and there really isn't anything to add.
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*I won't be meddling in the indexes for some time, but I do now hold a small GDX (short) position for the rest of this week.. if not into next.
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a daily wrap at 8pm EST.

3pm update - chop into the close

US equities remain choppy, with just a hint that a retrace is at least one day closer. The metals are holding gains, Gold +$19, which is naturally helping the miners, GDX +5.5%. VIX is holding minor gains of 3%... in the low 13s.


sp'daily5

GDX, 60min

Summary

*I won't be meddling in the indexes for some considerable time, but with another stupid bounce in the miners, I've picked up a small GDX short position. Holding to primary downside target of 15/14s.. which is well within range if Gold falls <$1100.
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Other than the rather interesting interview with the BABA CEO today... its been a not surprisingly dull day.

Notable weakness: oil/gas drillers, RIG -1.1%, SDRL -1.6%... with a long way down to go into next spring.
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..back at the close.

12pm update - Ambitious Rosetta

Whilst equities continue to see minor chop... there is far more interesting action going on... off world. The ESA 'Rosetta' is set to land the first ever probe on comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko - around 2pm EST.


Meanwhile... the market itself continues headed for the proverbial moon...

Nasdaq Comp', monthly, 20yr

Summary

The bubble high of March'2000.. @ 5132... looks on track for next spring... and then what? 7k, 10k.. before it all blows up when the next crisis hits?

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Notable strength: miners, GDX +4% or so... but holding well within a broader down trend. Miners will remain wholly dependent on metal prices, which themselves remain broadly weak.
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VIX update from Mr T.

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Regardless... for the rest of today... I'm more interested in off world events...



FULL coverage, see: Rosetta @ livestream.com

==
back around 3pm
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1.33pm.. SHORT GDX from 18.35...

*yes, I'm refraining from meddling in the indexes, but I am open to minor 'other stuff'.

11am update - semi holiday chop

US equity markets remain seeing minor chop, but with notable new historic highs. Metals are holding moderate gains, Gold +$5, but looking vulnerable later this afternoon. Nat' gas remains weak, -1.9%.


sp'daily5

Summary

*watching BABA's Jack Ma on clown finance TV earlier, interesting, and seemingly a very genuine guy.

However, I consider highly problematic that BABA stock is not really a true stock.. merely part of a fund based in the Caymans. Just reflect that they sell stock... but the stock has zero voting rights. How funny is that? Crony capitalism at its best, right?
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As for the main market... note the daily MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle.. we have a rare case where price momentum has weakened for the sixth consecutive day, but actual prices are still climbing.

It bodes badly for equity bears for remainder of the year.

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time for a slightly early lunch

10am update - opening mixed chop

Equities open with some mixed chop, but it is highly notable that new historic highs were hit in the usual trio... Trans, Dow, and sp'500 of 2039. With a touch of equity weakness.. reflected in the VIX, +2.5%, breaking back into the low teens.


sp'60min

Summary

Not much to note. With new highs hit again already this morning, equity bears have little to be hopeful about.

Yes, Oil is weak, turning negative... now -0.2%.. but Mr Market is starting to realise that lower energy prices are bullish for the consumer and broader economy.
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Notable strength... miners.... whilst Gold +$7.

GDX, daily

If the metals weaken later today... GDX will be in trouble.
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time to shop... back soon

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Equity futures are a little higher, sp +2pts, we're set to open at 2040.  Metals are trying to bounce, Gold +$5. Nat' gas continues to fall this week, -3.2%, whilst Oil is +0.2%


Dow, daily

Summary

Today will likely be even more quiet than yesterday.

I will endeavour to find something to cover, but really, price action will likely be super dull in almost everything.

re: Dow. Many now seem resigned to 18k in the near term... and once that is hit, a fair few will seriously start to recognise that the giant 20k threshold is only another 11% higher.
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Notable early mover: GDX +1.4%... but those gains look highly vulnerable to being reversed, within the broader down trend.

Daily Wrap

US equities broke a trio of new historic index highs in the Trans, Dow, and sp'500. The hyper-ramp from the mid Oct' low continues, although a retrace is no doubt well overdue. VIX continued to melt lower, -3.7% @ 12.73.


sp'daily5

Trans

Summary

*most notable today - the Trans in the 9000s... and it would seem just a mattter of when.. not if... the Trans breaks through 10k.
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Volatility continues to get crushed

We've seen the VIX crushed from 31.06 to the low 12s across just 19 trading days... incredible.

VIX'daily3

A spike of some sig' degree still seems a given before year end... right now..  the 18/20 zone looks 'best equity bear case'.
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Closing update from Riley


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Looking ahead

Nothing is due tomorrow, market will be on semi-holiday mode.
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Goodnight from London