With the main indexes holding onto moderate gains, the VIX slipped a little lower, settling -1.9% @ 13.19. The VIX looks set to remain in the mid/low teens for the rest of the year. It remains a fearless market, with the mainstream realisation that QE-taper is unlikely until late spring 2014.
vix'60min
vix'daily3
Summary
There is little to add. VIX remains low, and at best..a brief spike to the 15s looks possible, before falling again into early November.
Right now, VIX breaking back above the key 20 threshold looks almost impossible for the remainder of this year.
The main indexes closed moderately higher, with the sp +5pts @ 1752. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, saw daily gains of +0.9% and 0.7% respectively. The broader mid-term trend remains to the upside, and the sp'1800s look viable in November.
sp'60min
Summary
*eyes on AMZN and ZNGA, earnings at the close.
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The immediate trend remains to the upside, but I remain highly suspicious of a minor down wave tomorrow, not least with end-week profit taking, and no sig' QE-pomo.
more later..on the VIX
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UPDATE on earnings.
AMZN EPS -9 cents for Q3,...naturally the stock is +6% in the mid 340s. The stock remains wrapped in hysteria. Same old...nonsense!
The main indexes are holding the sp'1750s, although there remains risk of downside to the 1735/30 zone. With the broader weekly/monthly index cycles pushing higher, short-index trades remain overly risky, and generally pointless.
sp'60min
Summary
It remains a tricky situation to call, in terms of the smaller index cycles.
There is relentless underlying upside pressure, but with risk of a downside wave to the low sp'1730s. As ever, for those with trading stops, such uncertainty is not particularly relevant.
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Earnings due for AMZN and ZNGA, both will be pretty interesting to see..
AMZN, daily
AMZN is arguably the most over-valued and hysteria surrounded stock of the entire market. Certainly, many bearish traders have looked for it to collapse at each earnings cycle. The mainstream still love the company..despite the lack of any significant profit in some years.
My guess for AMZN? Based on previous cycles - and the current main market, I'd have to think it will jump higher.
As ever though, I simply don't trade any of the 'hysteria' stocks. Too crazy/unstable for me...but certainly...quite entertaining to watch.
3.30pm..the smaller 15/60min cycles look VERY prone to downside in the closing 30mins..and early tomorrow.
We're due to go negative MACD cycle within minutes. stay tuned!
3.41pm...price momentum now negative on the 15min cycle..should in theory see weakness into the close. Equity bears should consider any daily close <1750 a real bonus.
Despite underlying upside pressure - as clearly displayed with the Transports in the 7000s today, this market sure feels tired. Another minor wave lower to the sp'1735/30 zone looks increasingly likely into tomorrow, when there is no QE for the equity bears to be concerned about.
sp'60min
Summary
The price action really does look primed for a little wave lower into early Friday.
An obvious gap fill in the low sp'1730s would make for a good early morning low, before some sort of a minor recovery into the Friday close.
For now..that remains my best guess.
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VIX remains very low, but is offering a turn higher, and suggestive of equity weakness.
VIX could briefly spike into the 15s, which would equate to sp -15/20pts.
2.36pm.. sp'1752, at the high of the day. Still though, price action is suggestive of a tired market.
*AMZN, ZNGA earnings at the close...certainly worth watching!
The market is clearly struggling a little after a 113pt ramp from sp'1646 to 1759. Yet, the underlying pressure is still very much to the upside, with the Transports now in the 7000s. Metals are holding gains, with Gold +$16, Oil has recovered back to flat, after earlier declines of 0.9%
sp'60min
Summary
A tricky day in terms of projecting the smaller index cycles.
There remains risk of a very minor down wave to the sp'1635/30 zone, but for anyone going short, the risk is overly high...and the Transports is a fine reminder of that.
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Notable weakness in DRYS, which having failed to hold $3, is now in danger of a full retrace to the original breakout level, around $2.25 - where the 200 day MA is lurking.
DRYS, daily
For those who believe in 'general' equity upside into spring 2014, DRYS is a tempting target in the low $2s.
Without question, the most notable aspect of today is the Transports index breaking into the 7000s. The weekly charts are offering 7200/7300 in November, which might equate to sp' in the low 1800s. Metals are building gains, gold +$16, Oil remains weak, -0.5%
Trans, daily
Trans, weekly2, rainbow
Summary
*I want to note that Mr Permabull - Oscar Carboni, was the first to suggest Transports in the 7000s. I forget the precise time, but I believe it was in the very early spring, Feb/March.
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I myself ended up resigned to Trans'7000s this year a month or so after Oscar first touted it, once it became clear that the QE fuel just won't be ending any time soon.
The main indexes are moderately higher, but there is a touch of weakness in the air. Equity bears have a moderate chance of a break into the sp'1735/30 zone, which should hold as good support into the Friday close. Metals are building gains, Gold +$10, whilst Oil just keeps on sliding, -0.9%.
sp'60min
Summary
Best guess..a minor skirmish this morning, with the bears managing a further minor wave lower. It is difficult to guess whether yesterdays low of 1740 will be broken late today..or not until early tomorrow.
Certainly, there is a pack of econ-data tomorrow, and that would be a good excuse for the market to sell lower..if only briefly.
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*have you noticed how many (not least the cheer leaders on clown finance TV) are now starting to tout the declining Oil/gasoline prices as a 'green shoot' for the economy into next spring?
The mainstream is absolutely desperate for these equity markets to close the year on a very positive note, although they are right to note US gas prices in the low $3s would certainly help the Christmas retail trade.
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TSLA is bouncing
..but ANY break <160..and door opens to 110/100
11.35am... sp'1651...hmm, bears getting frustrated, as underlying strength continues.
Tricky day though, still risk of a little washout into early Friday, but with the weekly charts pushing higher into November, no point in taking any short trades.
*metals still building gains, Gold +$15. GLD in the 140s would be the natural target, and that is a good 10pts higher!
The market has tried to rally into the sp'1750s again..and failed. Before making new highs, it would seem Mr Market wants to wash out the weaker bull hands, with a brief break <1740, perhaps filling the gap in the low 1730s. Such a decline still won't do anything to the broader up trend.
sp'60min
sp'daily5
Summary
There is good multiple support in the 1735/30 zone, and that's assuming the bears can manage even that.
As I've said a few times lately, I'm really starting to believe the market won't see sub 1700s for the remainder of the year.
Yes, the daily MACD index cycles are rolling over, but underlying pressure is so strong to the upside, I don't think the bears can do it.
Anyone think there is a hope in hell of taking out the Aug' low of 1627?
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*watching clown TV, the Cramer has reminded me of a stock I've not look at in over a few years.
AEM, one of the gold miners, having a major jump today...
Still, its a long way down from the high $50s last year. Last weeks doji turn candle has been arguably confirmed with a huge weekly surge..so far 18% this week.
If metals can rally (even if for just 3-5 weeks) AEM should at least break into the 35/40 zone.
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Good morning. Futures are moderately higher, sp +5pts, we're set to open around 1751. Metals are slightly higher, Gold +$5, Oil is again weak, -0.4%. Equity bulls have an opportunity to push the market to the 1760s today.
sp'60min
Summary
*weekly jobless; 350k , vs 335 expected.
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So, moderate gains to start the day.
There is a small risk of downside, best bear case is 1730, although that seems very unlikely considering the bigger weekly price momentum.
If the market likes the FOMC next week, we could even close the month pretty close to the 1800s, which would frankly surprise just about everyone..except yours truly.
notable early movers: AKAM, -9% @ $47, on bad earnings, FFIV +5% to $90, on good earnings !
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With the main indexes holding within a very powerful up trend, it remains ever more bizarre to see continuing sporadic posts about an 'imminent market collapse'. There is simply nothing bearish right now, and yet strangely...some continue to see things otherwise.
sp'weekly8
sp'weekly4 - hyper-bullish outlook
Summary
If I wanted to, I could probably double my web traffic (literally overnight), all I would have to do is issue a post with the title 'sp'1000 within 6 months'. Yet, I'm not interested in going that route of touting doom merely to attract attention, not least when I no longer believe in it myself.
Permabear... not so Permabearish
No doubt some of you are getting increasingly annoyed by my lack of 'doom' posts. Despite my chosen name, I will endeavour to post things as I see them.
As a number of traders/posters have noted across the last few months, there is often a backlash - sometimes pretty fierce, whenever someone perceived as a 'doomer' touts anything even remotely bullish.
I'll sure as hell tout further upside until I see either QE end (in full, not the taper nonsense), or a huge deterioration in the economic fundamentals.Neither of those two issues look likely in the mid-term (3-6 months), and thus..I continue to see further 'broad' upside into spring 2014.
A video from 'Thanos', which brings up part of what I was raising yesterday...
The 'Greg' character that Thanos is referring to, continues to tout 'imminent crash', day after day on youtube. It has become more than just boring, or just a 'bad trading call'. It is becoming somewhat contemptible. That is probably overly harsh on my part, but still, its not like we're in the sp'1500s..or even the 1600s anymore. We're in the mid 1700s, and the 1800s look very likely next month.
Anyway..enough of that. I would hope you get the point by now.
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Looking ahead
Thursday doesn't have much, other than the usual weekly jobs data, but Mr Market certainly doesn't seem to care much about that lately.
*the next Sig' QE-pomo is not until next Monday.
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Where will we close this week? The sp'1740/30 zone looks a very tough zone for the equity bears to break and hold below. Indeed, considering the QE, and mainstream confidence that QE-taper can't occur until at least next March, a weekly close in the 1750/60s looks viable, which will keep the broader upward trend very much on track.
The main indexes generally closed moderately lower, with the sp -8pts @ 1746. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, closed +0.7% and -0.4% respectively. Near term trend remains to the upside, and baring a break back under 1730, equity bulls have little to be concerned about.
sp'daily5
R2K
Trans
Summary
So, a day where the market actually closed red! Well, except for the 'old leader' which is making a play to break into the 7000s.
Equity bears have no right to get even remotely confident about the market. One down day does nothing to the short term, never mind the longer term trends.
Underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle is obviously very high, but there remains huge upside pressure, and even if the market were to just churn sideways in price, it will take some weeks for price momentum to turn even moderately to the downside.
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