Thursday 27 December 2012

Volatility drops into the close

With another political comment causing the indexes to snap back higher, the VIX flipped back to the downside, closing -0.01, to settle @ 19.47. The earlier break above the 20 threshold is the most aspect of today's somewhat roller coaster day.





Lets be clear about one thing today...

The VIX broke the key threshold of 20.

Yes, it closed under 20, and even closed fractionally in the red.

Yet, the damage HAS been done. The warning signal has been triggered.

If we are going to see volatility spike into the 30s..and even 40s in early 2013, this sort of crazy swing is to be entirely expected.

Get used to it.

Closing Brief

With yet another political comment appearing, the bears ended up on the run, and the bulls were back to chasing the market higher. However, lets be clear, some important levels were broken today, not least of which was the VIX 20 threshold.





The closing minutes of action were pretty crazy, this is exactly the sort of instability we'll increasingly see in the days..and weeks ahead.

Get used to it.

The next key target to break is 1398, that will open up 1390/88..and despite todays afternoon madness, is still viable tomorrow.

more later this evening, if my net connection holds together

2pm update – seeking increased weakness

Everything is looking on track, and in the style I was seeking. We've seen the VIX break the key 20 threshold, the indexes have taken out a few key levels, and even Mr $ is a little higher - after earlier declines.

Sp'daily, Keltner


First target is sp'1390..sometime tomorrow. We might get a bounce from there to around 1400/05..briefly.

All bounces will be shorted (at least by yours truly)

The bigger primary targets remain unchanged.

Strike'1 for Mr Market

Once 1343 fails..then its 'free money' for the bears until 1270/60

12pm update – game over bulls

Baring some bizarre late hour agreement, the indexes are going to get smashed within the next few trading days.A fast snap move down to the November sp'1343 low seems viable, with a move sub 1300, within the following 2 weeks.

Sp'weekly2, rainbow

VIX' weekly


Red candle on the weekly index chart...very good to see.
The VIX breaking over 20...VERY important.

Regardless of how we close today, the damage has been done, and I'm holding to all original targets.

Sp'1225, with VIX somewhere in the 35/45 range. Its hard to guess where VIX will max out at, but clearly, a break into the 30s would seem the 'minimum'.

Back later..probably with an update after the close.

10.30am update - VIX breaks 20...we're on the way

* possible

VIX just broke 20...we're on the way.

VIX coiled, and looks set for a move into the 30s..and mid-January.

Holding to all targets.

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are a touch higher, sp +2pts, we're set to open around sp'1421. Again, its minor upside, and it will be important for the bears to make a challenge of the sp'1413 low by the close of today.




Certainly, I want to see a break <1413 sometime tomorrow, and trading <1400 at least 'briefly' sometime during Friday trading

A key event will be VIX breaking the 20 threshold. That is indeed what the those seeking much lower levels should be seeking.

*please note, updates will be sporadic, whilst my main net is also 'sporadic'.

One stinking week until some engineer is (once again) scheduled to fix it. I am clearly, cursed by the gods.