With US equity indexes closing broadly higher, the VIX was in cooling mode, settling -8.6% @ 14.09 (intra low 14.00). Near term outlook still offers the sp'2020/15 zone, and that should equate to VIX in the 18s. Sustained action above the key VIX 20 threshold looks out of range in the current cycle.
VIX'60min
VIX'daily3
Summary
Suffice to add... VIX remains stuck in the low/mid teens, even a brief foray to the upper teens is an obvious challenge.
Yet... having seen a likely key high of sp'2075 - with VIX 13.00, the VIX should be able to hit the 17/18s within the next 2-3 days.
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US equity indexes closed broadly higher, sp +21pts @ 2066. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.2% and +1.2% respectively. Near term outlook still offers the 2020/15 zone, and that should equate to VIX 18s. More broadly, the market still looks to have another marginally lower high of 2075.
sp'60min
Summary
... so much for 'leaning weak into the close'.
Another annoying micro wave to make a new intraday high.
Price structure is offering a bear flag for the sp'500, whilst there is (arguably) a bullish pennant for the VIX.
Equity bears will need to see <sp'2055 - with VIX >14.75, to give initial indication the market is resuming lower.
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Clearly an annoying day, but it could be worse, we could be >sp'2081... or >Dow 17977. The latter would be a critical problem.
US equities have started to cool from the bounce high of sp'2061. Equity bears should be content with any daily close in the sp'2040s - along with VIX 15s. Broadly, the 2020/15 zone - with VIX 18s, looks on track within the next few days.
sp'60min
VIX'60min
Summary
*eyes on the hourly 10MA in the low sp'2050s. A daily close under there would be useful... and offer pretty high clarity that 2061 was indeed a bounce high.
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So... the latest nonsense from the Fed is out of the way (don't ask me what they said... I ain't looked, and am not in the mood for fedspeak today).
Sp'2061 is arguably good enough for the bounce from 2042 as complete.
In theory..it should be a straight run to the 2020/15 zone from here.. whether tomorrow or Friday.
*what should remain clear.. sustained and very significant downside to the mid/low sp'1900s looks off the menu for some weeks.
Its time for another press release from PRINT HQ, with the latest minutes of the FOMC. With the sp'500 already hitting 2061, just 1pt shy of the 2062/66 gap, we're almost certainly at/close to the high of this bounce from 2042. VIX is naturally in cooling mode, -5% in the 14.50s.
sp'60min
VIX'60min
Summary
... lets see what the algo-bots make of the latest fedspeak.
On a pure cyclical basis, we shouldn't go any higher than 2066.... and with a clear two hours left of the day, some cooling into the close is arguably due.
yours... watching
2.28pm.. Hmmm.... minor chop.. but leaning a little downward.
US equities remain moderately higher, and look set for an hour of chop ahead of the latest press release from PRINT HQ. The algo-bots will be somewhat twitchy with the latest FOMC minutes, as the market continues to try to walk the fine line between 'everything is okay' and '...but we don't need another rate hike yet'.
sp'60min
VIX'60min
Summary
Little to add.
In theory, we shouldn't see any price action >2066.
Right now, a daily close in the 2040s would be.... useful.
US equities are moderately higher, and the post FOMC-minutes setup, will now favour the equity bears into the close. Nothing has changed (not least in Oil), and the market still looks on track for (at min') a test of the 200dma.. around sp'2015 - with VIX 18s, within 2-3 trading days.
sp'60min
VIX'60min
Summary
*notable price gap zone, 2062/66.
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No doubt some of the equity bears are getting spooked.. with fears of new cycle highs (>sp'2075).
That still seems increasingly unlikely, as we have so far only cooled 33pts from the Friday high.. and that barely rates as a minor retrace.
Price structure might be offering a bear flag/pennant by the close... and Thursday should see renewed significant downside.
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Here in London city
Sunny.. but with showers... and with a strong wind, it feels kinda icy! It sure ain't summer yet.
US equity indexes remain choppy, but increasingly leaning to the upside.. ahead of the FOMC minutes (2pm). The sp'2020/15 zone - with VIX 18s, still seem highly probable within the near term. Metals remain weak, Gold -$9, with Silver -0.8%. Oil is +4.0%, and that is clearly helping the broader market mood.
sp'60min
VIX'60min
Summary
There is an annoying gap zone of sp'2066/62 from yesterday's open, with a serious threat of that being filled, before the next wave lower to the 2020s.
US equities open with some mixed chop, as the market clearly wants to rally, but is facing underlying price momentum that is swinging back to the equity bears. Metals are broadly weak, Gold -$8, with Silver -0.8%. Oil is +2.4% , ahead of the EIA report.
sp'60min
VIX'60min
Summary
*it is notable that the VIX has already hit a new cycle high of 15.98. The 18s still look due... but not until tomorrow.. or more viable... Friday.
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So.. opening chop.. and it'd seem we'll see more of this.
Yes, I'm aware of the threat of a retrace back to the 2055/65 zone.. not least as there is a micro gap there.
Broadly though.. the 2020/15 zone still looks on track.
yours... patient. (overly?)
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notable implosion.....
CREE, daily
Collapsing after a profits warning. Price structure has been a bear flag since early March... now confirmed.
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stay tuned
10.31am... EIA report... net weekly decline of -4.9 million barrels. Hmmmm
The over-supply issue is of course... NOT remotely resolved.
Good morning. US equity futures are a little higher, sp +5pts, we're set to open at 2050. USD is +0.4% in the DXY 94.90s. Metals are weak, Gold -$10. Oil is +2.7% in the $36s, after the latest API report.
sp'60min
Summary
Cyclically a day of moderate chop is to be expected.. but leaning on the downside, as (in theory) we should remain broadly headed for the sp'2020/15 zone - with VIX 18s.
Best guess: opening gains, a lot of chop, but closing with marginal net daily declines.
Thursday will offer the bears a chance at 2020/15.... or more viable... Friday.
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*yours truly wants to be closed out before the weekend... with a target re-short next Tue/Wed'.
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Update from Mr C.
The issue of the 'failed head test' is very important, and I will try to cover it more later this evening.
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Gold bug chatter - Hunter with Rickards
I will merely say... make of that, what you will.
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The sp'500 saw a second consecutive net daily decline, settling -20pts @ 2045, with a notable (if momentary) break below the Friday morning low. The bigger weekly cycle is offering the first sign that the rally from sp'1810-2075 has concluded.
sp'weekly6
Dow'weekly2
Summary
re: sp'500: the first blue candle... as ever, how it settles the week will be pretty important.
re: Dow. In theory, if the Dow doesn't see renewed upside into the 18000s, the 'natural' downside target for the summer/early autumn would be around 12500/400... a clear 5000pts lower.
For now... such a target is the stuff of bear fantasy land, but its something to keep in mind.
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Market/econ chatter from Schiff
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Looking ahead
Wed' will see the EIA report. More importantly, the latest FOMC mins will be published at 2pm.
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US equities indexes closed broadly lower, sp -20pts @ 2045. The two
leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -0.6% and -1.1% respectively. Near
term outlook offers the 2020/15 zone - where the 200dma is lurking.
Sustained price action <sp'2K and >VIX 20 looks out of range in
the near term.
sp'daily5
Nasdaq comp'
Summary
Suffice to add... two consecutive down days for all indexes.
Clearly though, we remain very close to recent highs.
A retrace to at least sp'2020/15 - with VIX 18s, looks probable in the near term, but considering overall market sentiment/mood, sustained action <sp'2K, with VIX >20 looks out of range.
