Monday 2 June 2014

Volatility a little higher

With US equities seeing some mixed chop - with particular weakness in the R2K/Nasdaq, the VIX managed minor gains, settling +1.6% @ 11.58. Near term outlook is for the VIX to remain within the 13/11 zone, although the 10s are most certainly viable in June.



Little to add.

VIX remains low, and the 20s look unattainable for some weeks, perhaps even until the late summer.

Next major event is the FOMC of June'18. I suppose some will look to the ECB this Thursday, but really...FOMC is the one I am focusing on.

more later..on the indexes

Closing Brief

US indexes closed moderately mixed, sp + 1pt @ 1924. Most notable today, new historic highs in the Trans/Dow/SP, whilst the R2K briefly snapped -1.2% in early morning, recovering most of the declines. Metals ended the begin June, on a bearish note.



Little to add, on what was a pretty quiet day.

*I remain entirely on the sidelines, and frankly, am not quite sure how to deal with this week. Default trade remains long though..whilst the weekly cycles remain as they are.

more later..on the VIX

3pm update - sleepy afternoon

Market continues to see very minor chop, with broader underlying strength seen in the Dow/SP/Trans, whilst there is moderate weakness in the R2K/Nasdaq - much the same index split since March. Metals remain weak, Gold -$7... a lousy start to the month.



There really isn't anything to add.

I realise most are already switching off their screens before the close..and I don't blame them.

VIX looks set to close 2-3% higher, but still. that remains a VIX in the 11s.

3.53pm... new highs into the close....for the bears.....urghh...

back at the close.

2pm update - a mixed market

US indexes remain moderately mixed. Whilst there were new historic highs in the Trans/Dow/SP, there remains notable weakness in the R2K/Nasdaq, but both of the latter remain well above the danger zone. Metals remain weak, Gold -$8, with Silver -0.5%

GLD, daily


*for the gold bugs out there...go stare at a monthly chart for the rest of this week...

ohh. thats right, you've been refusing to do that since 2011. Oh well, at least you're consistent ;) No doubt, the witch-hunts will continue against anyone who dares suggest Gold will further fall.

As for the equity market...there isn't much to note. A relatively quiet Monday, mixed chop, most are merely awaiting the ECB on Thursday.

1pm update - Transports pushing higher

A choppy Monday, with the 'old leader' - Transports is pushing higher, in new historic territory. Equities look moderately vulnerable, but the broader trend remains...UP. Meanwhile, metals remain weak, Gold -$6, with a further 45/50 of downside viable in the near term.

Trans, daily


Little to add.

Market looks set for general upside into Wed/Thursday.

I can't be shorting this nonsense, but neither am I okay to go long the indexes at these levels.

Oh well....

*as for the ISM data revisions...someone should be fired for that basic level of repeated incompetence. As it is, I'd guess they somehow gravitate their way into a government position...US Treasury perhaps?

12pm update - messy morning

The week has started with some messy index chop, although - as ever, underlying upside pressure is there, with new historic highs in the Trans/Dow/SP. The R2K remains a weak area, but has already recovered much of the earlier - from -1.2% decline, to -0.3%



*ignoring the smaller cycles this hour.

Weekly charts offering 1930/35 this week...and it is pretty incredible to see 8 consecutive green candles.

VIX update from Mr T


time for tea..or a walk..or something

11am update - morning weakness

US indexes are somewhat mixed. After new historic highs, most of the indexes are now rolling over, with the hourly charts highly suggestive that a gap fill in the sp'1902/00 zone is viable within the near term. R2K is particularly weak, -1.2%. Metals are weak, Gold -$3

R2K, daily



I am tempted to go long the R2K (yeah, I know), but will hold off, since the other indexes look only in the initial stage of a rollover.

So...lets see if the market can melt lower to the low 1900s...before levelling out.

Keep in mind, the bigger weekly cycles are now offering the 1930/35 zone in the immediate term.

Yes, I've noticed the VIX, but 6% of a small number still makes for a low VIX.

11.30am.. well, indexes have already recovered to some extent....although R2K is -0.7% still.

A bit of a messy Monday, certainly, nothing particularly enticing so far. No doubt, big action will come Thurs/Friday.

...and new index highs for the Trans, Dow, SP.

*I am guessing some of the wave counters out there would call this morning sub'4 of larger 3....with a bigger 4 - down sp'1900..later this week.

Regardless...for those short..this is annoying.

10am update - mixed open

US indexes open a touch higher, with new historic highs on the Trans, SP, and even the laggy Dow. There is however notable weakness in the R2K, -0.7%. Metals are weak, Gold -$5, and June looks set for major downside in metals land.



I'm not sure what to make of the R2K, just filling the gap, with renewed upside Tue/Wednesday? Certainly, I think it makes for a lousy short, not least with QE tomorrow and Thursday.


Well, I can't be short....not with the weekly charts as they are.

Considering an index long....hmm

Lets see where we are around 11am....

As things are..the indexes are quiet out of sync....

10.06am.. market wants to fill some index gaps... sp'1902/00.

First target though today..1910

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are a touch higher, sp +2pts, we're set to open at 1925. Metals are starting a new month weak, Gold -$3. The market will likely push higher until at least Wednesday, although daily/weekly charts will be strongly restrictive to the 1925/30 zone.



*there is an array of econ-data from 9.45-10am.

So..we're opening a little higher, and frankly, I just don't see any downside power.

US/world markets look set to climb for the first half of the week..what happens at the ECB at Thursday..that is the unknown. That event could be used as an excuse for a sharp...if brief wave lower.

Regardless, broader trend remains bullish, with the Dow set to break a new historic high at the open.

Ohh, and I guess we should be on the watch for VIX 10s today..and across the week.

Update from Mr Permabull

Not surprisingly, he is back to fully bullish.

Have a good week.