Tuesday 13 March 2012

VIX - A reversal candle, but still weak

VIX - daily 'bullish market scenario'

I was looking for a hollow red reversal candle earlier today. We did close with such a candle. Closing outside the lower bollinger band is often a low (for a few days at least, even if the long term trend remains down).

VIX weekly - 6 year broad overview

It is truly bizarre to see that the market now acts as though its 2007 again. Although we are in the Bernanke paper printing bubble of course, but still, its remarkable to see. Who had dared thought last October we'd see VIX in the low teens? Even yours truly had thought VIX 20..maybe 18 - at the very low point, and that had seemed a really bold outlook.

If Sp'1450/1550, then VIX single digits?

Can the VIX collapse below 10 ? The VIX has never stayed (maybe intra-day?) below 10 in over 20 years. Lets be clear, this market is rallying on no real volume of buyers, it remains low vol' MELT-UP. It will of course end at some point, but its also very possible we'll just keep on trundling much higher for many months, baring some sort of 'event' .

Today's red hollow candle on the VIX was a minor victory, but its arguably irrelevant. There are literally hundreds of buy signals out there right now, and the only 'sell/short' signal is today's VIX reversal candle. Right now, the bears - those few who are still around, have no right to claim today's outside-candle as a victory.

When considering the daily, weekly, monthly cycles on the main indexes, it does look like we'll be seeing an even lower VIX. We'll know soon enough.

JPM sticks it to the bears

Today's 60min cycle on the indexes had been rolling over since about 1pm. That all abruptly flipped at 3pm, due to a press release from none other than the meddling Morgue'.

JPMs news about raising the dividend, along with a major stock buy back has nailed the remaining bears..again. Truly incredible, and real nice timing of them huh?

*doubtless a lot of the regular web/blog posting bears will be going on 'radio silent' this evening, and possibly for some days ahead.

I won't be one of them. More later.

VIX - reversal candle developing?

Good morning.

Crazy open in the VIX -10%..even breaking 14..briefly.

A VERY long and interesting day ahead.

Seeking a classic hollow red candle by end of day.

Metals Update - still looking weak

I wasn't going to bother noting the metals for at least a few days, but today's action smells VERY weak.

SLV....its looking like last August again...$22 by late May/June?

GLD: a test of the 150s looks likely. 140s by late April/May ?

Momentum on Gold is especially weak, so maybe Gold can lead the way lower within the next 1-3 weeks.

SHLD - double top?

Sears...getting really stuck in the high 70s

The 'chase' levels would be...

Bearish break <65
Bullish break >83
Considering the fundamentals, its looking a reasonable short at the moment, with tight stop of 79.

I'm not meddling with it though, for the moment, I'm sticking to just the indexes/VIX.

VIX - bizarrely weak

VIX - daily 'rainbow' (Elder Impulse) chart

A pretty severe decline on what was a pretty dull Monday. No sign of a floor, no sign of any turn upward. We need to see a few blue candles, and at least 1 green candle before we have a decent go-LONG VIX/buy signal.

VIX - the big picture

Today's action was very bizarre. Maybe it was a floor, although that is certainly not yet a classic 'hollow red' reversal candle. Even a move to 22 right now would not confirm a clear break higher. Weekly momentum cycle - at current level, will now take up to 4-6 weeks to go + cycle.

UVXY - another decaying mess

Interest in this VIX instrument remains in a rapidly increasing trend. Can you imagine the volume that will occur on this thing if the market does have a few significant down days in a row?

However, as with all leveraged play things, this is just another easy way to lose money in both the near and long term. For the moment, its just decaying.

TVIX - close to putting in a new low

TVIX  almost put in a new low, volume seems to have stabilised, although that in itself is not that important. After all, it should - in theory, make almost no difference whether people are buying or selling.

VIX - near term 'Bullish market' outlook

I will still argue that even under a bullish market outlook of 1400+, VIX should at least test 24/26 in the near term. However the fact we put in a new low today after what appeared to be a solid 6 week base...its not the most pleasing sight for the bears.

Good wishes for Tuesday