Tuesday 31 December 2019

The year and decade settles

US equity indexes settled the year/decade on a positive note, sp +9pts (0.3%) at 3230. Nasdaq comp' +0.3%. The Transports settled +0.2%.

sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

... and that concludes 2019... and the decade. Suffice to note, it was a pretty sleepy trading day, comprised of mostly minor chop. Volatility did pick up a little, with the VIX printing 15.39 in early morning, but settling -7.0% at 13.78.

Goodnight from London

*The weekend post on 'world equity markets' will appear early, on New Years day.

Further, yours truly will endeavour to highlight as many end month/year settlements as possible, not least in the Gold/silver miners, and many key stocks on https://twitter.com/permabear_uk
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Monday 30 December 2019

2019 to settle

US equity indexes closed moderately weak, sp -18pts (0.6%) at 3221. Nasdaq comp' -0.7%. The Transports settled -0.6%.

sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities opened in minor chop mode, and then saw a moderate wave lower to sp'3216. There was a little bounce, with renewed cooling in the afternoon.

Volatility picked up, with the VIX settling +10.3% at 14.82.

*Tuesday will see a normal market close at 4pm EST. For the chartists out there - yours truly included, the monthly, yearly, and decadal settlements will merit considerable attention.
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The sun is soon to set on 2019

Next full moon is Jan'10th
--
Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
--
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Sunday 29 December 2019

Sunday Sundown

A little glimpse into my world....

3.21pm GMT

Barren winter







Note the iridescent clouds to the upper left.

3.45pm... twilight

The Crescent moon and Venus

Bullish... to the moon!
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Yours truly will return on Monday with the pre-market brief at 8.30am EST, at http://subscriber.permabeardoomster.com

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Saturday 28 December 2019

Weekend update - US equity indexes

It was a bullish week for US equity indexes, with net weekly gains ranging from +0.9% (Nasdaq comp'), +0.7% (Dow), +0.6% (SPX), +0.4% (NYSE comp'), to +0.3% (Trans).


Lets take our regular look at five of the main US indexes

sp'500


The SPX climbed for a 5th consecutive week, the 11th of 12, breaking a new historic high of 3247, settling +18pts (0.6%) to 3240. RSI 74s are the highest since Jan'2018.


Nasdaq comp'



Dow



NYSE comp'



Trans





Summary

All five US equity indexes saw net weekly gains.

The Nasdaq lead the way higher, whilst the Transports lagged.

The SPX, Nasdaq comp', Dow, and NYSE comp', broke new historic highs.

YTD price performance:


The Nasdaq comp' is currently +35.7%. The SPX +29.2% and the Dow +22.8%. The NYSE comp' is +22.6%, with the Trans +19.3%



Looking ahead

It will be a short four day trading week.

M - Intl' trade, wholesale invent', pending home sales, Dallas Fed' manu'
T - Case-Shiller HPI, FHFA HPI, Chicago PMI, consumer con'

W - CLOSED for New Years Day

T - Weekly jobs, PMI manu', FOMC mins (2pm), Fed bal' sheet (4.30pm)
F - Vehicle sales, ISM manu', EIA Pet' & NG reports.
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Final note

There are just two trading days left of the year/decade. The 2020s are about to dawn, and I'll leave it at that.

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Have a good weekend
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*the next post on this page will likely appear 5pm EST on Monday.

Friday 27 December 2019

Chop into the weekend

US equity indexes closed a little mixed, sp +0.1pts at 3240. Nasdaq comp' -0.2%. Dow +0.1%. The Transports settled -0.1%.

sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities opened on a positive note, and it was enough to generate new historic highs in the SPX, Nasdaq comp', Dow, and NYSE comp'. The rest of the day comprised minor chop, leaning on the weaker side.

Volatility remained broadly subdued, with the VIX settling +6.2% at 13.43.
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There is not much sun left of 2019
--
Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
--
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Thursday 26 December 2019

Boxing day gains

US equity indexes closed moderately higher, sp +16pts (0.5%) at 3239. Nasdaq comp' +0.8%. Dow +0.4%. The Transports settled +0.3%.

sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities saw further algo-bot upward melt, which was more than enough to generate new index historic highs. VIX remained subdued in the 12s. There is little reason to expect Friday to be any different.
--

A fractional glimpse

Another day closer to spring
--
Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
--
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Wednesday 25 December 2019

Musings on Christmas day



First, I hope your day is fine. I recognise for many... its a 'struggle' at best.

With clear skies, yours truly ventured out...

One of the very few arrivals today

A third sunset closer to summer 2020

Skies for the gold bugs

Yours truly is thinking not just about 2020, but the decade ahead...

Civil unrest, as the underlying structural issues (demographics etc) increasingly strain the global economy.

War, its difficult not to see some serious confrontation at some point, whether in the middle east, or a more probable Asia. China and India both look prime, not least for demographic reasons (gross surplus of men).

Financial: the 2020s look set to be the decade where a 'global monetary reset' occurs. Further, the central banks have only one option... to print to infinity. QE 'for the people', along with a basic income for many.

Political: A second Trump victory (the democrats remain in denial about this likely outcome), will have monstrous societal implications, as American society becomes even more polarised.

Societal: humanity continues to turn on itself, with greater restraint on freedom of expression, travel, and perhaps even how long you are permitted to live.

Technology: Further exponential improvement in storage capacity and processing power can be expected. The shift toward all electric and autonomous vehicles is inevitable.

Off-world: SpaceX, NASA, Blue Origin, et al, can be expected to make massive progress. In theory, humanity could make it to Mars before the end of the decade.

Climate: it remains ironic that the real threat is global cooling, as the solar cycle setup leans to serious problems, especially from 2025 onward.

There will be surprises to be sure, and some, will be most welcome.
--

A few videos...

A (NSFW) spoiler FILLED review of 'The Rise of Skywalker'. 



I consider the movie an abomination. In fact, I've written off the 'Disney trilogy' entirely, and will just continue to believe in...

Episode 7: Heir to the Empire
Episode 8: Dark Force Rising
Episode 9: The Last Command

... now those were real stories by Zahn. Disney could have (at least loosely) used some of Lucas ideas, but they had no plan... and it shows.

Its a shame, as the new cast members of Ridley, Boyega, Isacc, and Driver, are all superb actors. They were just given a garbage script/story to work from.
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Ohh, and here is something...



Baumann has some seriously good editing skills. At least 'The Mandalorian' doesn't suck, and 'Kenobi' should be fine in 2020/21.
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Whilst many markets will remain closed on Thursday (including the UK), yours truly will be up and running. Wherever you are... good wishes, yours... P.

Tuesday 24 December 2019

Merry Christmas

Merry Christmas to my readers, twitter followers, and subscribers across the world.




Movie suggestions...

Krampus (2015)
Rare Exports (2010)
Bad Santa (2003)
Die Hard (1988), seriously, it IS a Christmas movie :)
.. and there is always Trading Places (1983)

Rare Exports

Whether this is your time of year or not, enjoy your Christmas day, away from the green and red flashing boxes.


Yours... PD, aka.. Philip
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*the next scheduled post is Thursday Dec'26th, by 5pm EST.  

Christmas Eve

US equity indexes closed fractionally mixed, sp -0.6pts (0.02%) at 3223. Nasdaq comp' +0.08%. Dow -0.13%. The Transports settled +0.02%.

sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities saw minor chop for the half day Christmas Eve session.
Volatility remained naturally subdued in the 12s.
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Golden skies into the Christmas break

A second sunset closer to summer 2020
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Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

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Monday 23 December 2019

Cruising into Christmas

US equity indexes closed a little higher, sp +2pts (0.1%) at 3224. Nasdaq comp' +0.3%. Dow +0.2%. The Transports settled +0.1%.

sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities opened on a positive note, and it was enough to see the SPX break a new historic high.

The departure of the Boeing (BA) CEO Muilenburg caught some mainstream attention.


Muilenburg resigned with immediate effect, and will be replaced by Calhoun, Jan'13th. He has a tough year ahead, and whilst the 737MAX can be expected to be flying again this spring, I want to note this...

If there is one (probably to be leaked) pilot's report of further 'difficulties' with the plane, I'd expect another grounding... and one that could easily become permanent.

The real story - that is still largely ignored by the mainstream, is that Boeing are trying to solve a hardware problem via a software fix. No. No. HELL NO!  This is NOT the way.

BA, monthly


There is a viable H/S formation. I would note the spike low of $285s. ANY price action <285 would merit alarm bells, and threaten the $140s. For now, the stock is broadly... turbulent.

Volatility remained subdued, with the VIX settling +0.8% at 12.61.

Sideline video on population...



Whilst any outlook is to be seen as speculative, the above is a pretty reasonable guess. I would note the massive growth in Nigeria.
--

Cruising above the London skies

One sunset closer to summer 2020


--
Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
--
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For details and the latest offers, see: Permabeardoomster.com