Lets take our regular look at five of the main US indexes (monthly candle charts)
All five of the US equity indexes settled net higher for the week.
The Nasdaq comp' broke a new historic high.
More broadly, the Dow, NYSE comp', and Transports remain under their respective monthly 10MA, with the SPX and Nasdaq comp' comfortably above.
It will be a busier week, with Q2 earnings set to officially begin on Tuesday with the financials. No doubt there will be another truck load of Corona related news headlines.
M - PEP
T - JPM, WFC, C, DAL, FAST
W - UNH, GS, USB, BK, INFY, AA, SNBR
T - DPZ, BAC, JNJ, ABT, TSM, MS, SCHW, NFLX, JBHT
F - BLK, ALLY
M - US T-budget
T - CPI
W - Empire state manu', import/export prices, indust' prod', EIA Pet', Fed Beige book
T - Weekly jobs, retail sales, Phil' fed, busin' invent'
F - Housing starts, consumer sent'. *OPEX*
|Sunset, 9.00pm BST, July 11th|
Price action since early June has been broadly choppy. There is the Nasdaq of course, hyper strong, with zero sign of a s/t ceiling/turn. To be clear, whilst I still expect a multi-week equity correction, anything sustained under sp'3K looks unlikely.
Q2 earnings sure won't be pretty, in fact, they will be 'end of the world apocalyptic'. Whilst you can argue the market is well aware of this, the key issue will be the corporate outlook for the rest of the year, and into 2021. I'd imagine many earnings statements will admit to simply not knowing, with no forward guidance.
Clearly, an economic recovery is underway, but anyone expecting a V-shaped recovery is just plain wrong. Even some of the mainstream cheerleaders - such as Pisani of CNBC, are now wondering about a W. The economic path into 2021 will not be a straight line, and its going to be a struggle for many.
There is the issue of Corona. Anyone touting a vaccine is still to be seen as either deluded or just willfully ignorant. Various treatments already exist, but a vaccine is unlikely.. ever.
Rather than Corona, I would actually see the uncertainty of the election, as a bigger problem for equities. We can expect some surprises this summer and into the fall, and its entirely possible (if not probable) that Trump won't be facing Biden anyway.
These remain ever more twisted and bizarre times... in the twilight zone.
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Have a good weekend
*the next post on this page will likely appear 5pm EDT on Tuesday, July 14th.