VIX jumps higher

With multiple earnings disappointing the market, equities opened sharply lower, with the VIX climbing to a morning high of 18.41. As is often the case though, VIX cooled into the afternoon, settling +10.9% @ 17.22. Near term outlook offers a sig' equity rebound.. with VIX still viable to fall to the 14/13s.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

*a daily black-fail candle.. which bodes in favour of the equity bulls for Wednesday
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Considering the major drop in equities in the morning, it was almost a little surprising that the VIX did not re-take the key 20 threshold.

The daily close offers a clear break of near term down trend, but overall.. equities do look highly vulnerable to resuming upward.. to new historic highs.
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more later... on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equities settled broadly lower, sp -27pts @ 2029 (intra low 2019). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -1.2% and -0.5% respectively. Near term outlook offers renewed strength post FOMC announcement, and if GDP comes in >3%... Mr Market has a high opportunity of attaining a weekly close in the 2070s.


sp'60min

Summary

*awaiting AAPL earnings at 4.30pm
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An interesting day... certainly for the bears.. but there are indeed plenty of signs that we have a floor of sp'2019.

It remains bemusing that few seem to want to reflect upon the fact that the US market remains very close to historic highs.


UPDATE 4.45pm..

AAPL earnings... greatly exceed (by around 20%) market expectations.

Main market dragged higher by 0.5% in early AH trading...

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more later.. on the VIX

3pm update - chop into the close

Having clawed from the earlier low of sp'2019, the market looks set for some moderate chop into the close. The bull maniacs should be content with any close in the 2040s, which keeps the door open for a key break >2064 as early as late Wed' afternoon. Metals and Oil both holding somewhat significant gains.


sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

*awaiting AAPL earnings at the close (4.30pm.. I believe)
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So... an interesting day... and the equity bears justifiably whacked the market lower on what have been some clear earnings misses... but also on guidance issues in terms of strong USD concerns.

Overall though, I can't take much of it seriously. Nothing has changed.

The EU QE-pomo program hasn't even started yet, and I'm still seeing chatter about a key top being put in.... err... no.
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Notable strength: miners, GDX +2.9%...
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... barring renewed weakness......... back at the close


3.30pm.. oh well, renewed weakness, sp -25pts @ 2031... clearly the 2040s are out for today.

Notable weakness, INTC -4.2%...

2pm update - plenty of warnings

Taken as a collective, the US equity market is clearly still broadly weak, but there are plenty of early warnings that a pre-FOMC floor of sp'2019 might be in. Metals are holding what is arguably a fear bid, with Gold +$12. Oil has built gains of a rather significant 2.2%.


sp'60min

R2K, daily

Summary

*Yes, I'm unquestionably biased to the R2K.. but hey... it is the strongest index today, and still looks set to turn positive before the close.
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We have a clear reversal candle on the R2K daily chart, and with a VIX that has notably cooled from the earlier high of 18.41.

Equity bears should be very mindful that with the FOMC tomorrow afternoon, the market is going to have a very valid reason to rebound back above the 50dma (sp'2047)... and keep climbing into the weekend.
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Notable weakness, FCX -5.0%... lousy earnings.

BTU -4.8%... lousy everything.
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2.25pm.... VIX continues to cool.. and R2K set to turn green.

Of course, its almost 2.30pm.. typical turn time. If bulls can hold a close in the sp'2040s.. that'll more than suffice.. not least with AAPL earnings at the close.

12pm update - pre-FOMC washout?

US equities remain broadly lower, but there are plenty of signs that this is just another little tease to the bears. The second market leader - R2K, looks like it has a fair chance of turning positive this afternoon, which would probably equate to sp' back in the 2040s.


sp'60min

R2K, daily

Summary

*there are a HUGE number of key individual movers, its almost impossible to even summarise, but suffice to say, the declines in CAT, INTC, FCX, MSFT are all rather powerful.
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More than anything now.. it will be important for the equity bulls to attain a weekly close above resistance @ 2064. I realise the 2070s seem a long way up... but that remains my guess.
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VIX update from Mr P.


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time for lunch... back at 2pm... when I'm guessing the market will be a fair bit higher than it is right now

11am update - somewhat interesting

Equities continue to slide, with a new low of sp'2019 and VIX in the mid 18s. Certainly, the equity bulls have a real problem this morning. Metals are catching a fear bid, with Gold negating the Monday declines, +$13.


sp'60min

vix'60min

Summary

*opening black-fail candle on the VIX did hold... just, but has of course been negated with a new high in the past hour.
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So... what now?

Since last Friday I mentioned the 2030s as important to hold, and we have a decisive break through that level already.

As it is, we're at the typical turn time of 11am... so.. its time to see what the bulls can manage into the afternoon. Unless we get a daily close in the 2040s.... I'll be somewhat concerned that 2k will fail... which of course opens up a 200dma test.

All things considered though, I still don't think that likely.

Anyone currently short...well... 'trading stops'.. would be useful....right? After all, we've seen a few hundred mornings like this, and it usually ends the same.
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11.30am.. The R2K will have a fair chance of turning positive this afternoon... I sure don't see a problem in the second market leader.

Call it pre-FOMC jitters... motivated by lousy earnings? 

Oil picking up... +1.4%

10am update - opening reversal

US equities open sharply lower, but there are already strong indications of an opening reversal... via a black-fail candle on the VIX hourly cycle, and a reversal candle for the R2K. Equity bears are facing the usual latter day recovery.


VIX'60min

sp'60min

Summary

Frankly, I find it absolutely bizarre how everyone loses their gods damn mind EVERY time the market opens lower.

The sp'500 is a mere 3% from historic highs, and I see people talking about key tops... a mere day after the DAX breaks a new high.
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I've some things to do, back at 11am... 

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures have increasingly turned red... sp -24pts, we're set to open at 2033. Metals are bouncing, Gold +$3, whilst Oil is +0.6%


sp'daily5

Summary

*Durable goods orders, -3.4%.... a major miss
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So... we're set to open significantly lower... and it certainly makes things unexpectedly exciting on this wintery morning for the NYSE.

A daily close <2030 would be a major problem for the bull maniacs... but Mr Market sure tends to see a latter day rally. So lets see how we close.... rather than get overly excited on the opening drop.

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Update from an especially loud Oscar


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Have a snowy Tuesday

*notable weakness: MSFT, -8.5% on earnings.
CAT -8.3% on earnings (I assume)
FCX -8%....on lousy earnings ... Copper continues to fall, in the $2.40s
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8,55am... R2k is set to open -1.1%, but that only brings it to the Monday opening level.... frankly, it could easily close net higher again.

Long day ahead...... awaiting more econ-data..............


9.26am... Well... rest of today will be about whether the bulls show up to buy... frankly, any daily close above the 50dma (2045 or so)... would be fine...ahead of the Wed' FOMC.


9.33am.. opening black-fail candle on the VIX at resistance of 17.50.... bears... beware!


9.40am... black candle on the VIX....... never to be taken lightly!

9.44am ... opening reversal candle on the R2K...... bears.... beware!

Eyes on the next turn

A quiet start to the week for the US equity market, which was a relatively strong performance, considering the Greek election result. A fair question in the near term is how high might the current multi-week up wave go? The sp'2100s look a valid target.


sp'weekly7

R2K, weekly

Summary

*with the micro burst of upside into the close, the weekly 'rainbow' candle flipped from blue to an outright bullish green.
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As noted at the weekend, the price structure on the R2K is particularly bullish, with spike floor candles in the previous 3 weeks. Upper bol' on the weekly cycle is offering the 1240s...if hit, that would almost certainly equate to somewhere in the sp'2090/2110 zone.
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Looking ahead

Tuesday will likely be 'light trading' due to many being away due to snowy weather. However, there is a truck load of econ-data...

Durable goods, case shiller HPI, PMI services, new home sales, consumer conf', Richmond Fed manu'

Without question, all of those data points will give the market an excuse to move in the early morning.
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Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

US equities saw a day of minor chop, sp +5pts @ 2057 (intra low 2040). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.6% and 1.0% respectively. Outlook remains broadly bullish, into the sp'2100s.


sp'daily5

R2K

Summary

Little to add, on what was a relatively quiet day.
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Notable gains in the R2K, which looks set for the 1215/20 zone by Thur/Friday.
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Closing update from Riley


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a little more later...