Monday 11 March 2013

Volatility breaks new lows

With the market starting the week in a very quiet state, the VIX broke new lows for 2013. There is simply a near complete lack of fear in the broader market. The VIX closed -8.2% @ 11.56    Today was the lowest VIX since March 2007.



VIX'weekly3, 10yr, rainbow


Whilst the Fed keeps throwing money into the financial markets, its going to be real difficult to get a sustained climb in market volatility.

We remain in a HFT algo-bot marketplace, fuelled by POMO dollars, and there is absolutely no sign of that end situation ending any time soon.

VIX in single digits is viable at 'any point' in the near term.

more later..on the indexes

Closing Brief

A quiet start to what will probably be a quiet week. With the main indexes continuing to melt higher..and the VIX breaking new lows for 2013 in the 11s, there is simply no sign of a turn. Those bears seeking a new wave lower are going to have to wait at least another week.



Not the most exciting of days, but then..its to be expected, in a market devoid of any real people, propped up by POMO fuel.

*I hold long overnight, via SLV and USO.

The usual bits and pieces across the evening.

3pm update - melt into the close ever. Main indexes recovered those very minor opening declines..and we're likely going to just quietly melt into the close. Dollar is a touch lower now, we're still due a 1-2 week down cycle..which would really help prop' the market up until late March.

SLV, daily2

USO, daily2


Whilst the indexes melt higher, I'm merely content to meddle in commodities for another week.

I'll hold both SLV and USO overnight. A gap higher at the Tuesday open would be...'useful'. Oil actually looks to hold more immediate upside than Silver.

back after the close.

2pm update - new lows

The sp' hits a new high of 1555, with the VIX in the 11.70s. There is no sign of a turn. Yes, the weekly and monthly index charts are arguably kinda close to the limit, but there is no reason to think the bears have any hope of downside this week.


vix'weekly'3 - 10yr, rainbow


We've not seen these VIX levels since the first half of 2007.

Single digit VIX is viable at any point on a brief short-term capitulation spike.

The ultra bullish outlook would very much be seeking VIX in the 9s this summer.

After all, whats to fear..the Bernanke is printing 85bn a month!

*big POMO this Thur/Friday. Bears need to stay well clear of this nonsense!

12pm update - VIX 11s

With the main indexes flipping back to fractionally green, the VIX has broken a new low for the 11s. This was indeed expected, and its very likely the rest of this week will remain in the 12-11 range. Whether the sp' will make a play to break the Oct' 2007 high of 1576..we'll soon see.




As I thought, today..and probably this week will just  be another frustrating week for the bears.

There seems absolutely no point in attempting an index re-short - or long VIX, until next week.

I recognise, a fair few chartists out there are suggesting the same kinda thing.


Regardless of the main indexes, I am currently long, via SLV and USO, from earlier this morning.

VIX update, from Mr T.

back at 2pm

10am update - morning chop

Good morning. Minor chop to begin the week. Indexes are already trying to go green, with a lower VIX. Dollar is a touch higher, Oil and the precious metals showing initial signs of a reversal after opening declines.




Underlying cycles are still bullish equities...bearish VIX. Its probably going to take most of this week just to see a confirmed turn.. and then we have two large POMO to end the week...with what is usually a bullish opex.

Good wishes for the week ahead

11am update...

Whilst the main indexes are just a touch lower, the VIX is in danger of breaking into the 11s...breaking the recent Jan/Feb low.

*I went long SLV and USO planned. I'm seeking much higher levels..especially near end of the week.

back at 12pm.