Saturday 19 November 2016

Weekend update - US weekly indexes

It was another bullish week for US equity indexes, with net weekly gains ranging from 3.2% (Transports), 1.6% (Nasdaq comp'), 0.8% (sp'500) to 0.1% (Dow). Near term outlook still threatens a minor retrace of around 1.5-2.0%, but broadly, the US market is super strong, which remains especially impressive considering the USD.

Lets take our regular look at six of the main US indexes


A second consecutive net weekly gain of 17pts (0.8%), settling @ 2181. There was a notable intra week high of 2189, a mere 4pts (0.2%) shy of the Aug'2015 historic high. Underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle ticked higher for a second week, and is set for a bullish cross within two weeks.

Best guess: a retrace to test the 50dma in the 2150s, before resuming higher into the 2200s, whether by end Nov' or early Dec'. A year end close around 2250. The 2300s appear out of range until at least Jan'2017.

Equity bears can't be remotely confident unless price action is back under the Oct' low of 2083.

Nasdaq comp'

The tech managed a new historic high of 5346, settling +1.6% @ 5321. Upper weekly bollinger will be offering the 5400s in the near term, with a MACD bullish cross due. The 5K threshold remains core support, and doesn't look likely to be tested for some months.


It was a relatively subdued week for the mighty Dow, but it still broke a new historic high of 18934, settling net higher by just 0.1% @ 18867. Price momentum has turned positive for the first time since early September. The 19000s look probable before the fed raise rates in mid Dec'. Things only turn bearish if the Dow is back under the 18k threshold.

NYSE comp'

The master index saw a moderate weekly gain of 0.5% @ 10709, the best close since late Sept'. Next upside target remains the 11k threshold, where the upper weekly bollinger is lurking. The May 2015 historic high of 11254 looks out of range until early 2017.


The second market leader ended the week with a new historic high of 1316, settling net higher by 2.6% @ 1315. Price momentum is back to net positive. The R2K has now climbed a monstrous 159pts (13.7%) in the past two weeks. New soft support is the 1300/1290 zone. A break back under 1200 looks unlikely for a very long time.


The 'old leader' - Trans, lead the way higher this week, with a very powerful net gain of 3.2% @ 8856. The intra high of 8859 was the best level since April 2015. The 8k threshold - once resistance, is now core support. A move >9k looks viable before year end. It is pretty incredible to consider that a break above the Nov'2014 historic high of 9310 now appears within range by mid/late Jan'2017.


All the main US equity indexes continued to build upon their hyper-rebound election gains.

There have been new historic highs in the Dow, Nasdaq comp', and the R2K. The sp'500 is next to follow.

The equity bulls have a considerable downside buffer, and things only turn provisionally bearish if sp <2100/80, Nas' comp' <5k, Dow <18k, NYSE comp' <10200, R2K <1200, and Trans <8k.

Looking ahead

It will be a short 3.5 day trading week, as the market is closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving, and Friday is a half day. Some traders will understandably take the entire week off, if only to do some shopping, and enjoy a pre-Christmas feast.

M -
T - Existing home sales, Richmond fed'
W - Durable goods orders, weekly jobs, FHFA house price index, PMI manu', new home sales, consumer sent', EIA report, FOMC minutes (2pm).

F - intl' trade, PMI serv'.   *EARLY CLOSE @ 1pm EST*

*the only fed official scheduled is Fischer, due next Monday morning at the CFR in NYC.

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Have a good weekend
* the next post on this page will appear Mon' @ 7pm EST

A second week for the bulls

US equities closed moderately mixed, sp -5pts @ 2181. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.7% and 0.5% respectively. VIX settled -3.7% @ 12.85. Near term outlook offers a small retrace of 1.5-2.0% to around the 50dma - in the sp'2150s. Broadly, the US market is unquestionably super strong.




*notable new historic highs of Nasdaq comp' 5346 and R2K 1316

It was a naturally choppy opex-end to the week. Cyclically, we're seeing price momentum start to tick lower, although a bearish MACD cross seems unlikely for at least clear two weeks.

VIX remained subdued, and there were the usual 'games' as it was knocked an extra bit lower into the close and in the brief 15mins of AH trade.

It was unquestionably another week for the equity bulls, with new historic highs in the Dow, Nasdaq comp', and the R2K. The sp', NYSE comp', and even the Transports can be expected to follow in the days, and weeks ahead.

Goodnight from London

*the weekend post will fully detail the US weekly indexes, and will appear Sat' @ 12pm EST.