VIX a little higher

With US equity indexes closing moderately mixed, the VIX saw a great deal of chop (intra low 13.49), but settling +2.9% @ 13.95. Near term outlook offers the 15/16s. Sustained action above the key 20 threshold looks out of range for another 2-3 weeks.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

VIX' monthly

Summary

*with March coming to a close, a rare look at the monthly chart, which saw a net decline of -32.1%

The powerful net monthly decline should come as no surprise, after the Jan/Feb' candles. The topping spikes are usually a strong indications of upside exhaustion.
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Market volatility remains very subdued, but on any fair basis, is set to climb to the mid/upper teens within the near term.

However, a sustained move above the key 20 threshold looks out of range in the current up wave from the low of 13.06.

Equity bears/VIX bulls will probably have to wait until the latter half of April before things start to get a little wild again.

Hyper VIX upside looks entirely out of range until at least early May.

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more later... on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equity indexes closed moderately mixed into the March/Q1 close, sp -4pts @ 2059 (intra high 2067). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.3% and +0.3% respectively. Near term outlook offers a retrace, at least to the sp'2000/1990 zone.


sp'60min

Summary

*closing hour action: minor chop, an attempt to re-clear the hourly 10MA, but failing, and leaning distinctly lower into the close.
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... and the first quarter of the year concludes.

It sure hasn't been boring, with a major Jan/Feb down wave to sp'1810, but then a massive rebound to 2072.

Most notable.. despite a mountain of 'everything is fine again' chatter, the equity bulls are yet to clear the most recent of the 'marginally lower highs' - the late Dec' high of 2081.

Until that is closed above... the equity bears can hold short.

Have a good evening
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more later... on the VIX

3pm update - the sun sets on Q1

US equities have seen one hell of a first quarter, declining from sp'2043 to 1810, only to then see a hyper rebound to 2072. Since the May'2015 high of 2134, the series of marginally lower highs remains intact.

sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

A rather glorious sunset to end a spring day.
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As for equities, we have the usual 'end month/quarter' rebalancing issues, so.. expect price action to get a little more dynamic in the closing hour.

Considering the hourly equity/VIX cycles, I'd be inclined to seek increasing weakness into the close, and across tomorrow.

What now matters is how the market interprets the monthly jobs data. Even then.. whether seen as 'good news IS good news' or 'bad news is good news'.. or even 'bad news IS bad news'... cyclically speaking, this market is still due to retrace.

*the hourly cycle is offering VIX 15s with sp'2040/35 tomorrow morning.
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yours truly remains holding short.

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back at the close.. to wrap up the day/month

2pm update - in other news...

US equities remain in minor chop mode. Cyclically, the hourly cycle is still suggestive of increasing weakness into the Thursday/March close.. and (in theory) could extend across Friday. Clearly though, even an initial move to the sp'2040/30s won't likely be particularly straight forward.


sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

Little to add... on what could merely be a minor chop day before the next sig' move.

Its interesting that the Nasdaq comp' remains unable to clear the 4900 threshold... which has been a key level for the better part of a year.


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In other news...

According to Zerohedge (yes, I do keep an eye on that twisted site), the infamous Gartman has waved the white flag, and is now touting 'not to fight the fed'.

So.. there is your kooky sell signal.
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back at 3pm

1pm update - fractional new high for the R2K

Whilst the broader market continues to churn, there is a notable new cycle high (if fractional) for the second market leader - the R2K. Next resistance is the 200dma in the 1140s, if hit, it would be suggestive of sp'2080/85 zone.


R2K, daily

R2K, monthly

Summary

It is notable that the R2K remains under the monthly 10MA - currently @ 1143, 2pts above the 200dma.

In any case, the R2K is set for a monstrous monthly gain of around 8%, which I believe is the best month since Oct'2011.
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Relative weakness... miners, GDX, daily

..which considering Gold is +$6.. is something of an under performance.

12pm update - four candles

US equities remain in minor chop mode, as the monthly/quarterly close is fast approaching. Understandably, many of the bulls are now gunning for further broad upside into the summer, along with new historic highs in most indexes.


spdaily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

Little to add.

Market seems content to churn. Current price action is clearly still leaning on the upside, but technically, a break lower remains due.

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As for 'four candles'



An English classic (1976)... as the second of 'The Two Ronnies' - Ronnie Corbett, has died.

Distant times indeed.
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back at 1pm

11am update - a little interesting

US equities remain in minor chop mode, but the hourly equity/VIX cycles continue to swing increasingly in favour of the equity bears. Some distinct weakness into the monthly close remains viable. Metals are holding gains, Gold +$9.


sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

Hmm, its getting a little interesting.

The MACD setup is offering a bearish equity cross in about 3 hours, with the VIX offering a bullish cross in 2 hours.

Certainly, by late afternoon, there is opportunity for the market to finally break lower... not least ahead of the jobs data.

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Here in London city...

Its reasonable... :)

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time to cook

10am update - opening micro chop

US equities open rather subdued. The hourly equity/VIX cycles continue to increasingly lean in favour of the equity bears. With the USD -0.4% in the DXY 94.40s, the metals are naturally on the rise, Gold +$11, with Silver +1.5%. Oil is +0.5% in the $39s.


sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

*Chicago PMI: 53.6... nothing bearish there. Equity bulls should be rather pleased with that number.
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Little to add.

First soft downside target for the bears should be a break under the Tuesday close of sp'2055. If that can be achieved, the door will open to 2040/35... with VIX 15s.

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notable weakness, BA, daily

Lower for a seventh day... seemingly headed to 122/121.
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time for some sun... back soon

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. US equity futures are fractionally lower, sp -1pt, we're set to open at 2062. USD continues to cool, -0.3% in the DXY 94.50s. Metals are back on the rise, Gold +$8. Oil is broadly flat in the $38s.


sp'60min

Summary

*awaiting the Chicago PMI.. due at 9.45am.
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Not much to add.

Cyclically, downside pressure should (in theory) increase across today.

Since it is end month, price action will be more dynamic this afternoon. Further, with the jobs data tomorrow, I am somewhat suspicious that there will be some 'cautious selling' into the close.
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Overnight action

Japan: weakness into the close, -0.7% @ 16758
China: micro chop, +0.1% @ 3003
Germany: currently -0.6% @ 9987
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Have a good Thursday

The important monthly close

As things are, even if the equity bears manage a sig' net Thursday decline of 20/25pts (which even to me, is being overly bearish), US equity indexes are set for powerful net monthly gains. Somewhat concerning, will be a very probable close above the 10MA.


sp'monthly1b

Summary

With a Wednesday close of sp'2063, we're a clear 44pts (2.2%) above the 10MA of 2019.

A Thursday/March close under the 10Ma looks out of range, not least relative to ongoing price action. At best.. a March close in the 2040/35 zone, but even that looks a stretch.


Implications of a close above 10MA?

Well, it sure ain't good for those seeking much lower levels into the summer.

Things are extremely borderline, not least as the most recent 'marginally lower high' is from Dec'2015 @ 2081. Any price action above that level, and it would open the door to new historic highs into the summer.

Indeed, it is highly arguble that for those currently holding short, the white flag waving zone is sp'2080/85. It would seem largely pointless to hold into the 2090s.. as the market would likely just keep on pushing upward.


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A brief update on:  WTIC oil, weekly'2

Today was interesting in that we saw a net build of 2.3 million barrels be considered by the market as a relief, yet early gains of almost 3% was fully reversed, with a net daily decline of around -0.4%.

The $40 threshold is clear resistance, and right now, I think we have a mid term high of $42.49.
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Looking ahead

Thursday will have the usual weekly jobs. More important, is the latest Chicago PMI number. Market is expecting around 50. The econ-bears should be seeking anything under the recessionary threshold of 50. The 48s or lower would be.. useful.

*Fed official Evans is on the loose again, with the more threatening Dudley due in AH.
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Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

US equities closed moderately higher, sp +8pts @ 2063 (intra high 2072). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.2% and 0.1% respectively. Near term outlook offers an overdue retrace, at least to the 2000/1990 zone, which would likely equate to VIX 18/19s.


sp'daily5

Nasdaq comp'

NYSE comp'

Summary

sp'500: an effective hit of the upper daily bollinger at 2072. The closing daily candle.. marginally spiky.. threatening near term downside.

Nasdaq: a clear black-fail doji, having tested, and unable to clear (at least on this first attempt) the important 4900 threshold.

NYSE: the master index managed its first close above the 200dma since last July, although the net daily gain of 0.5% is not exactly decisive.

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a little more later...