US equities settled moderately mixed, sp -0.2pts @ 2068. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.3% and -0.1% respectively. Near term outlook still offers a down wave to the 2025/20 zone, which would likely equate to VIX 20/22s.
sp'60min
vix'60min
Summary
*a really messy closing hour... with a rather sickening break (if briefly) above key resistance of sp'2072.
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Another pretty tedious day.. as Mr Market is trying to fathom whether there will be an agreement between Greece and the rest of the EU.
It would seem likely the Greeks will stretch this out into the latter part of February, at which point Germany will likely concede something... and reach a lame compromise to kick the can another year or two.
Equities are seeing renewed strength on an updated ceasefire call for the Ukraine... but remain under key resistance of sp'2072. VIX remains choppy in the mid 17s. Metals are set to close weak, Gold -$13, with Silver -0.6%
sp'60min
vix'60min
Summary
It is a particularly tricky close to call today... not least with sporadic news reports set to kick the market either way.
Best guess.. the 2072 line holds... with a down wave to 2025/20 before the weekend.
Lets be clear though, if market can break above 2072... then we'll keep on rising to new historic highs for most indexes.
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yours tired.... and holding VIX-long overnight.
3.27pm.... with a press release announcing King O' declares ISIS a 'grave threat'... the market jumps above resistance.... sp'2073.... VIX loses the 17s.
Barring news that the Greeks are going to refuse an initial deal/compromise.... equity bulls are taking control.... urghh
3.32pm... King O' set to appear to issue his decrees... as all Royalty do.
Without question... damn annoying. and if we don't close <2070.... it bodes badly (at least technically) for the bears into the long weekend.
3.36pm.. twitchy market... 5min cycle maxes out at 2073... pulls back to 2068... annoying just about everyone....
CNBC cuts its over feed... switches to NBC, lol (well.. it did on my feed).
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3.50pm... twitchy price action... indexes set to close flat.. fractionally red... in any case.. bears should be rattled at the break to 2073
US equities are starting to weaken... with the wave from sp'2048 to 2070 seemingly maxed out. A daily close in the 2045/35 zone remains viable, which would likely equate to VIX 19s. Metals remain weak, Gold -$14, with Silver -0.7%
sp'60min
VIX'60min
Summary
*I remain long-VIX from the 17.30s... would consider an exit in the 19s... certainly by the Friday close.
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So... a little weakness... and the recent downside target zone of 2025/20 remains viable by the weekend, although it sure is taking longer than expected.
With 2hrs still left of the trading day, there is plenty of time for the market to unravel.
Notable weakness, oil/gas drillers, RIG -5%, SDRL -4%... see 'fair value' page for more on those two.
2.04pm... First target on VIX is 18.00... I'd settle for any daily close in the 18s... but 19s are viable... if sp'2045/35.
2.12pm.. It would appear the market rallied on a news report that there is a renewed ceasefire agreement for the Ukraine. Yeah... that is clearly working out just fine for those locals as the chemical plants light up at night like a tactical nuke or MOAB...
US equities continue to see minor chop.... with Mr Market awaiting some initial comments from the EU meeting that has just begun. Metals remain weak, Gold -$10, whilst Oil is clawing back upward from early lows, -2.6%
sp'60min
vix'60min
Summary
Suffice to say.. we're now in a holding pattern... awaiting the first news reports... but that could be some hours away. Indeed, the real reaction might not be until tomorrow.
*In any case, considering the hourly cycles... I've picked up a speculative VIX-long position. Have dropped an SLV-short, although will look to pick that up again in a day or two... broader trend for metals remains weak.
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The hourly equity MACD cycle is rolling over... set to turn negative into the afternoon. From a purely 'chart perspective', the sp'2020s remain a viable target by late today. Such a sharp drop will require some 'fiercely spooky' news updates from Brussels.
I realise the sp'2020s look a crazy downside target by end of today... but it is possible. In terms of VIX.. that would likely equate to 21/22s.
Certainly.... stay tuned.... and be mindful of a very sharp snap lower on 'ohh noes' news. For those in the market today.... it is a highly dangerous day.
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Notable weakness: TSLA -3.9% in the $207s.... ahead of earnings.
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11.06 EXITED SLV- short... looking vulnerable to bouncing... not least if Gold jumps on any 'spooky news'.
.. am considering an index put position... hmmm
11.19am LONG VIX.. from 17.30....
Certainly.... will be 'interesting' if market starts to slide.
... this is my first VIX trade since summer 2013.
11.29am Market remains seeing minor chop... stuck under resistance of sp'2072... with VIX 17s..... interesting afternoon ahead.
US equities open a little lower, but its certainly nothing significant, despite the continuing Greek concerns. Metals are on the slide...set to lose the 50dma, Gold -$3. Oil is very weak ahead of the latest inventory report, -2.9%
sp60min
GLD, daily
Summary
*I remain short the precious metals via SLV... it looks okay right now... if the 50dma is lost... should be another 4-6% downside in the near term.
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So.... market is a touch lower, but is clearly going to strongly react to any Greek headlines later today.
Notable weakness, TSLA -3.2% @ $209... on concerns about earnings due AH. Personally, I think it'll be in the $230s this time tomorrow...
*awaiting the EIA report at 10.30am............
10.31m 4.9 million barrels surplus... its a lot... Oil -4.6%
Good morning. Futures are moderately lower, sp -4pts, we're set to open at 2064. Metals are a little higher, Gold +$4. Oil continues to slip ahead of the next inventory report, -1.5%.
sp'daily5
Summary
*another night of little sleep.... and if I disappear today... its because of that. The coming weekend is a three day one (market CLOSED Monday Feb'16th for 'presidents day')... and frankly... I need a break.
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We have a possibly very busy day ahead. There will be talks in Brussels as the Greek finance minister tries to broker a deal.
The amounts involved are frankly trivial, but Germany and other EU states are getting real tired of their weakest member. However, the problem is that if Greece leaves... Spain/Portugal would almost certainly follow, and it is the possibility of Spain leaving that is the real issue here.
On balance... more 'can kicking' is likely... if only to drag this out for another year or so.
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Key support levels... Dow 17k.. if that fails... I'd guess rising support of 16500 would not hold, and open up a fast move to 15k.
As noted though... I would guess a deal is reached this week... to buy more time. After all, why would the EU want a financial/political crisis this month... or next?
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*most traders should be mindful of the EIA report at 10.30am, if inventories come in at 3-5 million barrels surplus, then Oil will surely be pressured lower... and that will (usually) put some pressure on the broader market.
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Update from Oscar
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Doomer chat - Hunter with the Schiff
As ever, make of that... what you will.
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Notable early weakness, TSLA -1.8% in the $212s... ahead of earning due at the close. I'm guessing that one will jump above the key 200dma.. and open tomorrow in the $230s... if not higher.
Strength: AKAM, +5% in the $65s, on superb earnings.
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It was another rough day for WTIC Oil, settling -$2.41 (-4.6%) @ $50.02 (intra low $49.86). Regardless of the continued wild day to day swings, the broader trend - from June 2014, remains starkly bearish. There remains viable downside to the $35/30 zone into the early summer.
WTIC, monthly2, rainbow
WTIC, daily
Summary
*its late... and I'll keep this short..
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Suffice to say... no clear sign of a turn/floor yet.. not least with no indication that global oil supply is being cut.
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Looking ahead
Wed' will see Fed official Fisher in NYC, speaking (8am) on Monetary policy.
The only data of note will be US Treasury budget.. but these days.. few care about that.
*Oil traders should be mindful of the latest EIA report at 10.30am... another big increase in inventories would give the market the excuse to knock prices into the 48/47s.
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US equities saw some rather significant gains, sp +21pts @ 2068. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.9% and 0.6% respectively. Near term outlook is highly uncertain... whilst the 'Greek situation' continues. A break >2072 would be suggestive of new historic highs.. otherwise... 2025/20 zone.
sp'daily5
R2K
Summary
Little to add.
Market had a surprisingly strong day, after opening gains that largely failed.. but from sp'2048, the market appears to have benefited from a relentless short-stop cascade.
The R2K saw a particularly strong reversal, having been lower by -0.5% in the morning, but closing with a rather bullish spike-floor daily candle.
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