VIX battles upward

With US equity indexes closing significantly lower, the VIX was naturally on the rise (intra high 16.77), settling +14.7% @ 16.16. Near term outlook offers the sp'2020/10 zone, and that likely equates to VIX 18s. Sustained action above the key 20 threshold still looks out of range in the current cycle.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

First, it was particularly pleasing to see the VIX bullish pennant play out, along with a corresponding bear flag for equities. They aren't often that clear.

Despite a significant net daily gain, the VIX remains relatively low.

Even another move higher like today, will only get the VIX to the 18s.. where they are multiple aspects of resistance.

Sustained action above the key 20 threshold looks out of range in the current down wave.

Best guess:  VIX 18s.. then cooling to the 15s.. before renewed upside after next Wed/Thursday. The 20s look viable in the latter half of the month.

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more later... on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equity indexes closed significantly lower, sp -24pts @ 2041. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -1.3% and -1.4% respectively. Near term outlook offers the 2020/10 zone, before a likely bounce back to 2040/50. More broadly, the April 1'st high of sp'2075 is increasingly looking like a secure mid term high.


sp'60min

Summary

*closing hour action: a new intra low of 2033, with a bounce, but holding under broken support.. now resistance of 2042.
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For the equity bears out there, today sure was a relief, with the best downside action in almost two months. Even the VIX started to show some upside power.


The two obvious scenarios for early Friday...

1. big gap lower to the 2020/10s... stabilise.. and then bounce across next Mon-Wed.

2. choppy open (maybe even a touch higher), but then still cooling to the 2020/10s... before a bounce next week.


In either case... I want OUT before the Friday close, to sidestep a probable bounce, and re-position for an eventual break under sp'2K.. with VIX >20.

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more later.... on the VIX

3pm update - bull maniacs on the run

With the break into the sp'2030s, the bull maniacs are on the run.. for the first time since early February. A daily close in the 2030s with VIX 16s seems likely, and the only issue is whether the market will see a significant opening gap lower to the 2010s - with VIX 18s, or have to spend much of Friday melting lower.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

Eyes on the lower/upper bollinger bands for the sp' and VIX respectively. Right now, any action under sp'2K and >VIX 20 looks out of range.

Lets just see how we close.

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*I remain seeking an exit tomorrow.. ahead of the weekend... and would then seek to re-short next Tue-Thursday.
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back at the close.

2pm update - bearish skies into the close

US equity indexes remain broadly lower, and there is still high threat we'll see a daily close in the sp'2030s.. along with VIX 16s. Further downside looks probable across much of Friday, to the sp'2020/10 zone.. which would arguably equate to VIX spiking into the 18s.


sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

*every little nano equity rally is being sold into.
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Little to add.

Best guess.. another micro wave lower into the close.. breaking <2042... and triggering a truck load of long-stops.

If correct, it'll be somewhat entertaining :)

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Meanwhile... here in London city...

The brisk spring showers continue!
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1.55pm.. and there we go.... a key break... not even 2pm. :)

sp'2040... with VIX 16s...

Hmm... a Thurs' close of 2034/30 with VIX 17s would make the Friday open far more interesting.

1pm update - still waiting

US equity indexes are significantly lower, with a break into the sp'2030s highly probable this afternoon.. along with VIX 16s. More broadly, the 2020/10 zone - where the 200dma is lurking - with VIX 18s, looks a realistic target before the weekend.


sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

Little to add.

It really is just a matter of how low we can close today.

Equity bulls should be seriously spooked that yesterday's gains are now fully negated... and we're set for at least another 1% or so lower.

yours truly wants to close OUT before the weekend.
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ps.  Denniger of Market ticker is alluding to some targets...  see HERE

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stay tuned!

12pm update - awaiting a break of support

The low sp'2040s are clearly short term support.. but do look set to be broken. VIX remains in the 15s, and equity bears really need the 16s today, to have continued hope of the 18s tomorrow. Metals are holding strong fear-bid gains, Gold +$16... as the strengthening Yen is causing further ripples across the capital markets.


sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

*yes, the current hourly candles don't look so great, but then.. we're seeing an initial bounce (again) from the low 2040s.
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VIX. daily cycle will have resistance around 17.00 tomorrow.. and that IS something of a problem.

However, sp'2015/10 currently looks valid, and that would likely equate to VIX 18s... if briefly.

In any case... equity bears should be in control until the Friday close.
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notable weakness.... FCX, daily

Naturally ugly... and FCX remains on my 'disappear list'.

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time to see what the cheerleading maniacs are saying on clown finance TV...........

11am update - eyes on the VIX

US equities remain broadly weak, with the sp -16pts @ 2049. Arguably, more important is the VIX, currently +8% in the 15.30s. Equity bears should be battling for the sp'2030s, but more especially, VIX 16s. Further upside to VIX 18s looks probable, and that would likely equate to sp'2015/10.


VIX'daily3

sp'daily5

Summary

Suffice to add... how we close today will be rather important.

A close in the sp'2030s will clarify we'll at least see 2020/15... maybe 2010/05 zone by the Friday close.

In terms of VIX, the 16s need to be seen today... if not somewhat closer to the 17s.
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notable weakness, FCX -6%... as the 'junk' usual suspects are all getting sold powerfully lower again.

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time for lunch

10am update - opening declines

US equity indexes open moderately lower, with the equity bear flag and VIX bull pennant being confirmed. In theory, the market should broadly decline across today, with a viable close in the sp'2030s.. along with VIX 16s. Metals are catching a distinct fear bid, Gold +$18, and Silver +1.7%.


sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

*opening VIX candle is currently a problem.
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Suffice to add, an interesting open.

Now its a race. Equity bears should push hard for the sp'2030s with VIX 16s by today's close.

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notable strength... miners, GDX, daily

With the precious metals on the rise, the related mining stocks are strongly higher.. as has been the case since December.

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time to cook


10.24am.. VIX breaks above the opening black-fail candle... so.. that problem is at least resolved.

Now its a case of how we close.

Sure seems quiet out there today, anyone else awake?

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. US equity futures are moderately lower, sp -11pts, we're set to open at 2055. USD is broadly flat in the DXY 94.40s. Metals are catching a fear bid, Gold +$12, with Silver +1.0. Oil is -0.2% in the $37s,


sp'60min

Summary

*I have partially added the H/S scenario that some of you are seeking. In any case, the downside target would be pretty close to what I was originally looking for.
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So, we're set for opening declines, and now its a case of whether its just another tease before a scary break >2075, or if we fall to somewhere in the 2020/00 zone.

A 50/60pt drop between now and the Friday close might seem a lot, but we've seen it occur a hundred or so times across the past few years.

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Update from Mr C.



The issue of increasing volatility/swings is indeed likely the case.

If it is a H/S formation...

sp'weekly8e

.. the target would be the 1600/1500s. Specifically, by definition (2116-1810: 306)    1810-306:     1504

.. and 1504 from yesterday's closing level of 2066...   is -27.2%.

*sp'1504 would equate to the Dow 13000/12500 zone*

Its something to reflect upon.. at least for a few minutes.
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Have a good Thursday

Will the 2075 high hold?

After some early minor chop, US equities pushed higher across the day, with the sp' +21pts @ 2066. Despite the gain, price structure is offering a bearish flag, and if correct, the 2020/15 zone - along with VIX 18s, should be hit rather quickly.


sp'weekly1b

sp'monthly1b

Summary

re: weekly: a viable mid term high of sp'2075... a mere 6pts below the late Dec' high of 2081.

re: monthly: Equity bears really need to push for an April close back under the 10MA, currently @ 2019.
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Looking ahead

Thursday will see the weekly jobs, and consumer credit data (3pm).

**After the Thursday close @ 5.30pm EST, the Yellen will be appearing with no less than three ex-CEOS of PRINT central - the Bernanke, Greenspan, and Volcker. I'm not aware if that will garner live coverage on CNBC.. or more likely.. Bloomberg.
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The series of marginally lower highs

2134, 2132, 2116, 2104, 2081... and the most recent... 2075

It will probably be some weeks before we can have high confidence that 2075 is just another in a series of marginally lower highs that stretch back to the May'2015 high.

Right now, its still looking okay for the equity bears, but as ever... one day at a time.

Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

US equity indexes closed broadly higher, sp +21pts @ 2066. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.2% and +1.2% respectively. Near term outlook still offers the 2020/15 zone, and that should equate to VIX 18s. More broadly, the market still looks to have another marginally lower high of 2075.


sp'daily5

Dow

Summary

Rather significant gains across most (but certainly not all) indexes.

For now, the April 1st' highs are still holding.. but it sure is getting a little borderline.

Best guess: renewed downside to the sp'2020/15 zone... along with VIX 18s. I realise that after this afternoon, that is probable seen as overly bearish.

.. and clearly, 2020/15 will take at least the better part of two, if not three trading days to reach, considering ongoing price action.

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a little more later...