With equities settling significantly higher, the VIX remained in cooling mode, settling -8.7% @ 24.50. Near term outlook is borderline. Mid-term outlook for US equities remains bearish, and higher levels in the VIX remain probable across the weeks.. and months ahead.
VIX'60min
VIX'daily3
Summary
Little to add.
It is notable that the VIX continues to sustainably hold above the key 20 threshold.
There is threat of another push higher.. at least to the 29/30 zone... if sp'1867 is fully tested.
US equity indexes settled significantly higher, sp +35pts @ 1920. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 1.1% and 1.5% respectively. Near term outlook is borderline... within a broader mid-term downward trend.
sp'60min
Summary
*closing hour action: renewed upside to the hourly upper bollinger... 1920.. borderline break of trend.
--
... and September trading comes to a close.
Frankly.. today was a pretty bad end to the month... but the mid-term bearish trend is clearly intact with a second bearish month.
I am increasingly concerned we'll see a renewed push toward the 200dma in the sp'2040/50s... but for now.. that is indeed a borderline situation.
... and yes.. I'm holding short... at least for now.
Have a good evening
--
*the usual bits and pieces... to wrap up the day.. and month... later.
Despite net daily gains, the equity bears are going to achieve the second consecutive significant net monthly decline - sp'500 -3% or so, something not seen since Sept' 2011. The broader upward trend remains broken, and lower levels still look due.
sp'monthly
sp'60min
Summary
*Clearly, any sustained price action >1920 would be a major problem.
.. I'm tired.. and unless things spiral back <sp'1900... I'll merely return at the close.. to wrap up the day.
US equities push back upward, with the sp + pts @ 190 . Equity bears should remain desperate to at least see the market hold under declining resistance, which will be around 1915 at the monthly close. VIX remains naturally under pressure, - % in the 25. .
sp'60min
VIX'60min
Summary
For now.. its getting borderline again.
More problematic, the daily MACD equity cycles which at the current rate will see a bullish cross (for most indexes) within 2-3 days.
*notable weakness, commodities, Gold -$12, with Oil -0.3%.
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US equities continue to cool from the morning high of sp'1916 to 1897. Price action appears similar in style to last Friday.. where the indexes turned red in late afternoon. Considering it is end month.. net daily declines are within range.
sp'60min
sp'weekly6
Summary
*again, it is notable that the bigger weekly cycles remain outright bearish, and highly suggestive of lower levels in the immediate term.
The Tue' low of sp'1871 makes little sense as a key low.. not least as the R2K busted the Aug' low of 1100 some days ago.
--
So... 3 trading hours left of September.. the early morning bullish hysteria has already rapidly faded.
Now its a case of whether we close the month on a particularly stinky note.
Those resolutely holding short can start to breathe again... at least until tomorrow.
US equities are holding sig' gains, with the sp +23pts @ 1907, yet the setup is similar to last Friday. With 'end month' issues due this afternoon, there is distinct threat of some cooling back under the key 1900 threshold. As things are... the sp'500 is due for a net monthly decline of -66pts (3.3%).
sp'60min
sp'monthly
Summary
Little to add.
So... a second consecutive bearish month.. but is that it? Are we now going to battle straight up to the 200dma in the 2000s?
It is a scary thought.. and the rest of today will offer a hint of whether we'll start Oct' on a down note.
*I remain short... but if we see any sustained price action much above sp'1920.. I'll likely have to close out.
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VIX update from Mr T
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time to cook
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**Bonus chart**
sp'weekly6
Despite this mornings gains.. the weekly candle remains outright bearish. Something to consider.
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12.24pm.. sp @ 1900.... which is somewhat interesting.
Frankly, considering the opening.. I'd settle for any close <1900. A red close is now within range.. so... rest of today.. could be a little exciting.
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notable weakness: DISCA -4%... downside follow through from yesterday... not a pretty daily chart.
US equities remain significantly higher, with the sp +29pts @ 1913. There is rather critical declining resistance of 1915 at the close of today.. and equity bears should be desperate for a close under it. VIX is naturally cooling, -6% @ 25.00... but offering a reversal candle... much like last Friday morning.
sp'60min
sp'daily5
Summary
The ultimate issue now is whether the next smaller down cycle merely puts in a higher low.. or breaks <1872.
The daily MACD cycle is starting to tick upward... and if it holds into today's close.. its a major threat for those holding short... including yours truly.
So.. I'm awake.. getting my ass kicked... and wondering if we have a marginally higher low of sp'1872... or if this is just end month nonsense.
What should be clear... the month will STILL end net lower.
US equities have opened significantly higher, with the sp' already hitting a high of 1915.. with VIX in the 24s. However, the market remains vulnerable to another reversal. Right now, bears should be battling for a monthly close under the sp'1900 threshold.
sp'60min
vix'60min
Summary
*.. fell asleep... am back now.... I guess the market opened without me.
--
brb...
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Okay... so.. we have an opening reversal candle in the VIX. ... just like last Friday. VIX has now filled the opening Monday price gap..... so we can go to the 30s now.... yes?
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... catching up on some of the data....
so.. ADP jobs 200k.... broadly inline
Chicago PMI, a recessionary 48.7.... reflecting the Sept' upset.. esp' in foreign markets.
10.31am. Oil inventories.. 4 million increase..... and that is not helping Oil prices.. back to flat.
Recent price action is increasingly tight though... a big move is coming.
Good morning. Equity futures are significantly higher, sp +23pts, we're set to open at 1907. September is coming to a close, and despite current gains, the sp'500 is on track for a second net monthly decline of around 3%.
sp'60min
sp'monthly
Summary
For those holding short overnight, this is clearly going to be a lousy open, but then, the bears have been in this situation a fair few times in recent weeks.
So... why the early gains? Difficult to say.. although technically, the hourly cycle is set for a bullish MACD cross at the open.
It will be important that the equity bears at least keep the market <1915 at the Wednesday close... at least to maintain the broader downward trend from sp'2020.
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Overnight Asia action:
Japan: broad strength from the open, +2.7% @ 17388, no doubt part of that will be due to BoJ buying.
China, moderate strength, but still holding close to the 3K level, with the Shanghai comp' settling +0.5% @ 3052.
--
We have a long day ahead... to wrap up what has been a pretty wild month.
US equities vainly tried to rally, but broadly failed, with the sp'500 settling +2pts @ 1884, having seen a new cycle low of 1871. Wednesday will offer a break of the Aug' low of sp'1867, and that will then quickly lead the market to 1820.
sp'daily5d
sp'weekly8b
Summary
Suffice to say, broadly, it was a day for the bears, with new cycle lows all over the place.
The bigger weekly cycle remains outright bearish, with best case downside to the 1700s this Thurs/Friday.
--
Looking ahead
Wed' will see ADP jobs, Chicago PMI, and the latest EIA oil report.
*Yellen is set to appear at the St' Louis Fed, I'm not aware if that will be covered live. No doubt the event will get some media attention after last Thursday's 'issues'.
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Positioned for day'10
Tomorrow is day 10 since the FOMC high of sp'2020, and in theory.. it should be a fiercely bearish day. It would not surprise me if we are trading somewhere close to sp'1820 with VIX exploding into the mid 30s. Of course, it sure would help if the Shanghai comp' loses the 3000 threshold overnight... along with the Nikkei -2% or more. That would help spiral the EU indexes lower... and help the sp'500 achieve a straight forward gap under the Aug'24/25 low of 1867.
Yours truly is holding short overnight, and seeking an exit around sp'1820.. whether tomorrow or Thursday.
US equities settled moderately mixed, but well below their morning highs, sp +2pts @ 1884 (intra
range 1899/1871). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.3% and -0.6%
respectively. Near term outlook is for further downside to at least
sp'1820.
sp'daily5
R2K
Trans
Summary
*the R2K continues to lead the way lower... first target is the Oct' 2014 low of 1040.. which would equate to sp'1820.
--
Trans looks headed for the giant 7000 threshold.. .which seems possible this Thurs/Friday.
With equity indexes closing moderately mixed, the VIX cooled a little, settling -2.9% @ 26.83 (intra high 28.20). Near term outlook offers further equity downside to sp'1820, and that would likely equate to VIX in the 33/35 zone.
VIX'60min
VIX'daily3
Summary
Not much to note.
The daily closing candle was a reversal doji candle. First upside target is the 29/30 zone.. that looks probable on any initial break of sp'1867.
If sp'1830/20... then VIX will be in the mid 30s.
--
*I am long VIX from 26.98.. seeking an exit in the 30s
--
US equities settled moderately mixed, but well below their morning highs, sp +2pts @ 1884 (intra range 1899/1871). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.3% and -0.6% respectively. Near term outlook is for further downside to at least sp'1820.
sp'15min
sp'60min
Summary
*closing hour action: broadly weak.. with a rather 'dumb ramp' into the close. Overall.. nothing for equity bears to concerned about.
--
To those concerned the sp'500 will manage to hold the Aug'24/25th low of 1867... I merely refer you to the R2K chart (see 8pm post).
The R2K has already broken well below the Aug' low of 1100.. and it is headed for the Oct' 2014 low of 1040.. equating to sp'1820.
--
So... early gains.. a lot of chop.. but distinct weakness into the close. Frankly.. bulls should be very concerned about the threat of a giant Wed' lower.. under sp'1867.
--
*I hold short AAPL, DIS, GE, DAL, and long VIX. Seeking a first exit in the sp'1825/20 zone.
--
Regardless of the exact close, there remains a distinct underlying downward pressure in the US equity market. Further, there is clearly no sign of any panic.. and we're 4% (at minimum) from any kind of market capitulation. There remains a significant threat that sp'1820 will not hold this Thursday.
sp'daily5d
sp'15min
Summary
*I am short DIS, AAPL, GE, DAL, and long-VIX. Will hold overnight
--
Price structure on the small 15min cycle is a bearish pennant
So.. lets see how we close... frankly anything in the 1870s would be a bonus.
*Today was day'9... in theory.. days 10 and 11 should see rather powerful net daily declines.
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3.10pm... New intra low .. sp'1875 .. with VIX 27.50s.
For those holding short overnight.. this is a good lead into tomorrow morning.
3.24pm.. sp' 1874... VIX 27.80s.. its all rather good :)
3.38pm.. a bounce from 1872 to 1880.... bears covering.. .it can't possibly be buyers at this level/time.
Regardless... rally FAILED... the setup into tomorrow remains bearish.
US equities have seen a secondary wave higher.. and are likely to rollover from current levels into the close. Regardless of the exact close though... tomorrow (day'10)... will offer a straight gap lower... possibly under the Aug' low of 1867. if so.. then 1820 is viable tomorrow.
sp'15min
VIX'15min
Summary
Its starting to get rather exciting.
A viable top in the 1900/1905 zone..around the typical turn time of 2.30pm.
..standing by....
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2.07pm.. SHORT-DIS..... .. as the main market is looking like it is done.
2.09pm... SHORT-AAPL
2.15pm.. LONG-VIX
Market offering another micro up wave.. but its all small moves anyway.
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2.29pm.. Market attempting another micro up cycle.. but broadly... price action is weak...
*I'm looking to pick another few short-positions before the close.
2.32pm.. SHORT-GE .. with sp'1886
2.38pm.. SHORT-DAL, with sp'1885
--
2.40pm... Will hold 5 short-market positions overnight... seeking a first exit at sp'1820.
US equities have seen some considerable chop with indexes briefly turning red. The smaller 5/15min cycles continue to offer another wave higher into the 2pm hour... with a marginal higher high in the 1900/1905 zone.. along with VIX 25s.
sp'15min
VIX'15min
Summary
Current price action is increasingly messy.. but still..
...for now... I have ZERO interest in chasing this lower whilst there remains high threat of upside into the 2pm hour.
Can we see things max out at sp'1905 at 2.30pm precisely? Is that asking too much ?
US equities remain moderately higher. An ABC bounce appears still in progress.. with the market likely to max out sometime from 12pm onward.. in the sp'1900/1905 zone. Sustained action >1910 looks extremely unlikely.. as the daily/weekly cycles continue to warn of a mini crash in the immediate term.
sp'15min
VIX'15min
Summary
*I remain on standby, seeking a heavy reshort in the 12-2pm time frame.. .with sp'1900/1905, and VIX 25s
--
Frankly.. its playing out so far okay... market teasing those bears getting overly excited at the open... and on the minor cooling after 11am.
A C wave peak around 1pm... or so.. would be fine.
US equities are seeing some notable bounce gains. Whether you want to call it an ABC, 123, XYZ, or whatever retrace/bounce... the broader trend remains increasingly bearish. A crash wave remains very viable across the next 2-3 days.
sp'15min
VIX15'min
Summary
*I am seeking some kind of bear flag to develop... via an ABC wave set
--
I am trying to remain patient and not get lost in the minor price noise.. which is hard when I'm staring at the 5/15min cycles for hours on end !
Currently on the sidelines... but targets are locked on.
-
time for some sunshine in the park (or I'll go crazyyyyyyyyy)... back at 12pm
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11.40am.. back... market battling to complete a B wave.... C looks ON TRACK to 1900/1905.
US equities open with some moderate mixed chop, breaking a new cycle low of sp'1876. From a pure cyclical perspective, the market should manage to claw higher, and that might take until 2pm to max out. Broadly though, any such bounce is just that... a bounce.
sp'15min
vix'15min
Summary
*I will certainly wish to be heavy short by the end of today. For now though... I don't see a hurry.. not least as the 1900 threshold remains a very natural level to test today.
-
So, minor chop to start the day... all things considered, a bounce STILL looks due. Right now.. that looks likely to take us into the afternoon, rather than max out by 11am.
For now then.. I am content to wait until at least 1pm.
--
time for an early lunch... back soon
10.14am.. BACK :)
So.. we've already hit 1892... not far off target zone.
The issue is time.. 11am.. or does this drag out into the afternoon?
I'd guess... 1/2pm.... but... if we're 1900/1905 by 11am.. I'll be sorely tempted.
10.18am.. short-stop cascade underway.. bears on the run.... sp'1894. VIX holding up rather well @ 26.66
10.28am.. Considering we broke a new cycle low at the open... the clock for a bounce was reset... I don't see a bounce being completed within 90mins... 11am.
So... I am HIGHLY inclined to wait.
Best guess... first wave completes around 11am... minor retrace to 12pm... secondary UP to 2pm
Good morning.. and welcome to day'9 of a collapse wave. US equity futures are moderately higher, sp +10pts, we're set to open at 1891. There looks to be viable upside to the 1900/1910 zone before renewed downside. Primary target 1820, secondary 1750/25 zone by the Thursday close.
sp'15min
sp'monthly
Summary
*it is notable that the month is set to end on a low... possibly in the 1830/1790 zone.
--
So... we're set for opening gains. A bounce into 11am looks very viable.. before resuming lower.
I would be surprised if we hold up into 2pm.... but its possible.
In any case... I see any such bounce one to be shorted.
-
Overnight Asia action...
Japan: Nikkei slammed, -4.0% @ 16930.... first level is 16400... then 14000.
China: Shanghai comp' -2.0% @ 3038.... again, holding the 3K threshold... but that will likely fail this Wed.
--
Have a good Tuesday
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8.25am.. sp +12pts... 1893.. with a bit of a short-stop cascade.. should see 1905/10 by 11am.
From there, I'm likely hitting buttons.
9.17am.. sp +7pts.. 1888. The 1900 threshold still looks viable by 11am
US equities were unable to hold the key sp'1900 threshold, and with the R2K breaking the Aug' low of 1100, the door is wide open to a mini crash wave later this week. Prime target is sp'1820, if that fails to hold, next support is not until the 1750/25 zone.
sp'daily5d
sp'weekly8b
Summary
re: Chart daily5d
For those who have occasionally studied previous major down waves, they should be well aware that such waves generally last no longer than 11/12 trading days.
On FOMC day - where we saw a net daily decline (with a clear spike top @ sp'2020).. I began a crash wave count.
With the break <sp'1900, I'm now quite content to openly highlight that today was day'8.
Typically, in many collapse waves, days 8, 9, and 10 will see powerful net daily declines.
Here is an example... from Aug'2011...
It is notable that in the case of the 2011 decline, day'9 saw a rather bullish net daily gain. Certainly, there can be positive daily closes within a powerful down trend.
More importantly though, day 11 and/or 12 will be a viable crash day. So, this Thursday/Friday I'll be on standby for a mini-crash.
There are other 'issues' surrounding the current time frame.. but for today.. I'll leave it at that.
--
Looking ahead
Tuesday will see Case Shiller HPI and Consumer confidence.
-
Update from Oscar
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Seeking to jump back aboard the short-train
Overnight Sunday futures certainly spooked me out of my two short-market positions at the Monday open. Regardless, a net gain is a net gain, so I shall refrain from whining. At least I'm not long, right?
Strategy/plan for Tuesday
If we open Tuesday lower... I will NOT chase lower. There will be high threat that buyers will flood in around sp'1867. This would be ironic of course because the R2K has already decisively broken the equiv' level earlier today. I would wait until the 2pm hour for a bounce.
If we open higher tomorrow, and see the 5/15min cycles get on the high side - sp'1900/1910 by 11am.. I will launch multiple market shorts. At the very least: SPY-short, VIX-long. I'll also consider a number of individual stock shorts, such as DIS, F.
My best guess is that we shall see a market capitulation this Thursday or Friday. Frankly, sp'1820 looks an easy target... it would not surprise me to see a brief washout to the sp'1750/25 zone.
Tomorrow is day'9, and I'm sure it will not be dull :)
US equities closed significantly lower, sp -49pts at 1881 (intra low
1879). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -2.2% and -2.9%
respectively. Near term outlook offers a brief bounce to the 1900/1910
zone.. before very high likelihood of a move to sp'1820 by Thurs/Friday.
sp'daily5
R2K
Summary
Most notable aspect of the day... the R2K, which has taken out the Aug' low of 1100... and is now on a fast path to the Oct'2014 low of 1040.
R2K @ 1040 would equate to sp'1820.. both of which seem due some time between Wed-Friday.
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