With equities starting the week on a positive note, the VIX was ground lower, settling -8.5% @ 12.77 (intra low 12.43). Near term outlook offers renewed equity weakness into end month, which should equate to VIX 16/17s. The big 20 threshold looks out of range in the near term.
VIX'60min
VIX'daily3
Summary
Little to add.
Considering the ongoing 'Greek situation', the VIX remains bizarrely low. Without question, there is a huge level of denial within the mainstream.
Many are still outright dismissive of a Greek debt default, never mind the more serious threat of an exit from the Euro. The grander issue of 'contagion' to Spain and other Euro members is similarly largely dismissed as 'crazy talk'.
US equities closed moderately higher, sp +12pts @ 2122 (intra higher 2129). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.8% and 0.6% respectively. Price structure is a bearish wedge, offering renewed downside into end month... primary target are the 2060s, where there will be multiple aspects of support.
sp'60min
Summary
*closing hour saw a touch of weakness into the close. Price structure is a rather clear narrowing wedge.. which in theory should break strongly to the downside in the coming 1-2 days.
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For the bears, a frustrating and annoying start to the week. All the 'doom chatter' across the weekend amounted to nothing.. as is almost always the case.
What was amusing today was to see the near outright denial of the Greek situation from the mainstream. This included such bizarre issues as the Cramer touting 'there are no bank runs', to the arrogance of various 'financial analysts' - saying with a straight face, how it will be good that more funds are 'released to Greece.. so they can then pay back those who are releasing them more money'.
Yeah.. we are living in the twilight zone.... and it is increasingly difficult to stay level headed about this spiralling mainstream madness.
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In many ways... this is probably a fair way to sum up the current situation...
Bears climbing the wall of worry?
Have a good evening.
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*the usual bits and pieces across the evening... to wrap up the day
US equities are set for net daily gains, but price structure is a rather large... narrowing ascending wedge. Equity bears need a break <sp'2115 (as of the Tuesday close) to offer some clarity that renewed weakness into end month is due. No doubt.. the 'Greek situation' is going to rumble on for some weeks to come.
sp'60min
sp'daily5
Summary
*on a break of the wedge, natural downside target would be the 2060s.. where the 200dma will be - along with other aspects of support... in early July.
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Well, it has not been the best of starts to the week for those in bear land...
Tomorrow.. can only be better, right?
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notable weakness: AA, -1.5% @ $11.75, ... already close to target zone of 10/9
US equities are holding gains.. but arguably also continuing to build a short term top. Equity bears need a Tuesday close <sp'2115 to break the short term upward trend... along with VIX 14s. USD is building moderate gains, +0.3% in the DXY 94.30s.
sp'daily5
Summary
Little to add.
.. its merely a case of waiting for the next Greek related headline.
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notable weakness (relative to main market): INTC +0.2%...
...set to close a touch negative. I remain short.. seeking the $30/29s.
US equities have cooled a little, with the sp' slipping from 2129 to 2120. VIX is similarly offering a turn, having put in a spike floor of 12.43.. and climbing back into the low 13s. USD is a little higher, +0.2% in the DXY 94.20s. Metals are under pressure, Gold -$15.
sp'60min
VIX'60min
Summary
*The EU/Greek meeting was originally scheduled for 1pm EST... I'm not sure if that is has been delayed some hours for various reasons.
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The Greek situation remains increasingly tedious, even if the can is successfully kicked into July... would it still not be a sell the news event?
Even the cheerleaders on clown finance TV have noted that if the Greek can is kicked again, the next issue will be that the Fed will be more free to raise rates.. and that will be a negative for the broader market.
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notable weakness: Alcoa (AA), -1.4% in the $11.70s.
strength: FIT, +20.1% in the $39s.... the hysteria heightens.
Most US indexes are holding borderline sig' gains, with sp +17pts @ 2127. A latter day rollover remains very probable, first downside target is rising trend (as of end Tuesday, will be 2115). In favour of the equity bulls, two new historic highs in the R2K and the Nasdaq comp'
sp'60min
GLD, daily
Summary
*metals remain notably weak. Arguably, Gold is losing some degree of 'fear bid' as market believes a Greek deal is likely.
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So... a Monday in strong favour of the bulls, but I don't believe the gains will hold into the daily close.
We have a VIX that is trying to put in a spike floor of 12.43... with sp'2129.
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Interesting chatter from Martenson and Rogers
I certainly agree with Mr Rogers on Gold. Still not quite at the 50% retrace ($1089)... nor have enough capitulated yet.
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VIX update from Mr T.
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time for tea... or something
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12.29pm.. An interesting VIX right now... back in the 13s... with a rather clear spike...
Short term peak of sp'2129.... now its a case of waiting for some 'spooky news' to appear..
US equity indexes continue to slowly battle higher, with the sp +18pts @ 2128. There will be some sig' resistance in the 2130/35 zone, with the bigger weekly cycle offering the bull maniacs no more than 2140 in the immediate term. Metals remain weak, Gold -$16.
sp'60min
VIX'60min
Summary
VIX reflecting the marginal new cycle high in the sp'500.
All things considered, a latter day equity rollover seems probable.
It's going to be a long... long week.
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*Despite the broad market gains, INTC is set to turn red.. which is somewhat amusing to yours truly. Price structure remains a bear flag within a giant H/S formation (min' downside target $26/25 by Sept/Oct).
US equities open moderately higher, with notable new historic highs for the R2K and Nasdaq comp'. With the USD flat in the DXY 94.10s, the metals are starting the week badly, Gold -$13. Oil has seen a swift reversal, from +1.0%.. to -0.3%
sp'60min
VIX'60min
Summary
*opening VIX is not surprisingly lower, and reflects a market that still believes no capital controls, no default... no GREXIT. It will be interesting to see how high the VIX can spike when those things do come to pass.
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Lets get one thing quite clear...
This market will be extremely vulnerable to fierce down swings at any time this week.. and indeed, across the rest of the summer.
The mainstream remain in near complete denial about what is going on.
The Greek bank run continues... and the broad mood is worsening.
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notable weakness: AA -1.1%, now in the $11s... already close to summer target of $10/9.
strength: airlines, DAL +2.1%, UAL +3.2%... certainly helped by the opening swing in oil prices.
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*I remain short INTC, and long VIX.. and I am very content to ride this mornings nonsense out.
INTC starting the day with a black-fail candle...
I'm sure there are a fair few others out there today...
Good morning. Futures are moderately higher, sp +9pts, we're set to open at 2119.. a mere 15pts shy of a new historic high. USD is +0.1% in the DXY 94.20s. Metals are on the slide, Gold -$7. Oil is holding early sig' gains of 1.0%, whilst Nas' gas -2.2%
sp'60min
sp'daily5
Summary
The week sure isn't starting so great for those holding short across the weekend (including yours truly). but the market will be exceptionally vulnerable to very powerful downside reversals throughout this week.
A net daily decline remains VERY viable.
First downside target for the equity bears should be a daily close back under the sp'2100 threshold.. a mere 0.5% lower.
My guess.... the Greeks will keep stalling until end month... when the can might get kicked for another month or two.
Such a stall should mean equities will be under pressure this week... and right now, I would be surprised if we don't take out the recent double floor of sp'2072.
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Doom chatter, Hunter with Griffin
I certainly don't agree with a fair bit of what was touted in this, but Griffin is still worth listening to.
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Greek chatter from poster jberni
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*overnight action.. China was actually shut for a public holiday... lucky for them, considering the huge Friday break lower.
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Have a good Monday
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9.13am.. clown finance TV - Cramer '.. there were no [Greek] bank runs'.
Yeah... sure there weren't.
Somewhat amusing to see the mainstream in near total denial.. until the day that Greece walk away into the sunset, default.. and eventually leave the Euro.
