Wednesday 14 November 2018

Another failed rally

US equity indexes closed broadly lower, sp -20pts (0.7%) at 2701. Nasdaq comp' -0.9%. Dow -0.8%. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.2% and -0.8% respectively. VIX settled +6.1% to 21.25. Near term outlook offers a 'problematic Thursday', not least if the sp'2680s fail to hold.




US equities opened on a positive note, but the rally failed even earlier than Tuesday, with the spx turning negative around 10.50am. From there, it sure wasn't pretty, with further 'spooky news' during the 12pm hour, that May had cancelled a BREXIT related press conf'. The spx saw a low of 2685, just 1pt above the golden fib' retrace, and 3pts shy of fully filling the price gap. The closing hour saw a failed micro rally, ending on a pretty bearish note.

Volatility picked up, with the VIX settling higher for the 4th day of 5. S/t outlook offers the 25/28s

A note on redemption day

There is plenty of chatter, not least from the lunatics on Zerohedge, that due to the Oct' equity drop, hedge funds might see a very large amount of redemptions. Thursday is a key day for this matter, and it does appear a valid concern. The equity bulls should be at least somewhat concerned that the market might fail to hold the sp'2680s, and just spiral lower to the Oct' low of 2603.

Another day closer to winter solstice

Full moon coming... Nov'23rd
Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EST) @

Goodnight from London
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