Monday 24 June 2013

VIX comfortable in the 20s

For the first time in almost a year, the VIX is looking rather comfortable above the key 20 threshold. The VIX closed +6.4% @ 20.11. Near term trend offers possible brief downside to 17/16, but there remains a severe risk of a spike to the 25/30 zone.




Yes, the VIX closed with a somewhat bearish black-fail candle, but I think the bigger trend is still very much to the upside. VIX looks set for another surge into the mid/upper 20s by late this week, or early July.

That would match up with the sp' hitting 1510/00 (best bear case).

I remain on the sidelines overnight, but looking to pick up a VIX August '20s strike CALL block late Tuesday.

more later...on the indexes

Closing Brief

The main indexes closed with rather significant declines, with the sp' hitting an earlier low of sp'1560. Despite a very weak closing hour, near term hourly charts are offering upside into Tuesday. Primary downside remains the lower weekly bollinger, currently 1495.




Well, a new low of 1560 was hit, and we're seeing what might be the first half of a bounce into the 1600/10 zone.

Best guess..sp'1605/10..before the next down cycle.

*I am on the sidelines overnight. Will seek a major re-short later on Tuesday!

3pm update - moon ramp into the close

The bears have had a great run from sp'1654 to 1560, but its time for some degree of significant bounce. The 1600/10s seem viable by late Tuesday..with VIX in the 17/16.75 gap-fill area. In the bigger picture though, downside remains the lower weekly bol @ 1495.




*I exited a small index long @ sp'1582 (long from 1564).

I am more than content to sit on the sidelines overnight, and will wait to launch a FULL short of this market...probably late Tuesday.

It truly remains the height of irony that I have been making gains on the a falling market.

I will cheer lead this market to the 1600/10 will make for a superb re-short level.

UPDATE 2.59pm..minor pull back to 1580, but generally, trend should continue higher. I find it hard to believe we'll open lower again tomorrow.

oh well, I ain't meddling in this now, so it won't worry me either way.

3.07pm.. back to sp'1584....hmm, a close in the 1590s would really open up the 1600s for tomorrow!

Come on bulls, keep pushing ;)

3.20pm Bulls could do with a close in the 1580s, that will make a break into the 1600s so much. easier.

sp'1607 , late tomorrow? 1620s look out of range.

2pm update - hourly pressure is upward

A rather significant bounce appears well underway, and the only issue is how high can the bulls manage before the next major wave lower. Best guess targets remain 1600/10...before a further move lower to 1510/00, where the 200 day MA lurks..along with the weekly lower 'bol'.



So, we're battling higher..and there are no doubt a fair few bears who will be looking to cover into the close.

Bears have had a good run from 1654 to 1550. On any basis, we're due a 2-3% bounce.

*I remain holding a small index-long position, will seek to drop that before the close of today, even though I believe further upside is likely for at least the first half of Tuesday.

2.21pm initial target hit

Stop placed on index long, tis a good day :)

KICKED @ sp'1582... I'm very pleased with that. 

2.32pm... VIX back to flat..set for upper 16s by late Tuesday.

Will make for one hell of a great re-short..via VIX calls. 

1pm update - floored at sp'1560

There is high probability that 1560 was the near term floor, and we're now seeing a bounce. First soft target is 1580, but 1600/10 is viable by late Tuesday. Regardless of the bounce size, primary downside target remains the lower weekly at 1495.



With the VIX cooling down, I have to think the bulls are getting a major opportunity for a relief bounce into the close..and some of Tuesday.

1580s look pretty easy, the only issue is whether we can pierce back >1600.

*I am currently holding a small index-long block, I'll drop that if 1580s later today.

Seeking a FULL re-short, later tomorrow. :)

12pm update - still due a bounce

The market may have just floored @ sp'1560. After a 3 day decline that started from late Wednesday, the market has lost 94pts. We're due a bounce, lets see what the bulls can manage into the afternoon



Certainly, this mornings declines were not expected, although the daily/weekly charts are obviously in a bearish configuration.

1620s now look well out of range. Bulls will be lucky to get a 1610/00 hit in the next move.

*I am long (small position) from sp'1564, seeking an exit 1575/80

VIX update from Mr T

Stay tuned!


You can see how the VIX has cooled off a fair bit already, even though the market is near the lows. That is fairly bullish for the bulls - at least for a few hours.

12.31pm..  bears should arguably be exiting here, or at least tight short-stops.

first target is 1580

11am update - expecting some degree of bounce

Well, the bulls have been whacked to begin the week, but there is high likelihood of a bounce into the early afteroon. That certainly doesn't mean we won't close in the red, but the easy bear-money has now been made. Oil is particularly suggestive of upside.




Most notable aspect of this morning is Copper <$3. That should send terror to the Gold bug community, and all those holding mining stocks.

*i am holding a small index-long from sp'1564. Will seek an exit in the mid 1570s.

11.25am.. For those watching, the lower weekly bol' now up to bear case is another 4% lower within a week or two. 

11.33am... market trying to put in a spike-floor @ 1560.

I have to think, good upside into the 1575/80 area late today/early Tuesday.

We have fallen 95pts in barely 3 days, without any real significant bounce!

10am update - where is the floor?

The main indexes have opened surprisingly lower, taking out the sp'1577 low. There really isn't much support until the 1550/30s. Yet, a 1-2 day bounce is still very viable, and the bears should be extremely cautious. Oil is already offering a possible reversal.




*I won't be chasing this lower. In fact, I'll look to pick up a small index-long this hour, but only if the price action looks stable.

10yr yield...2.62%... next level is 2.75. If 2.75 broken...then 3.40/50

Copper breaks $3    to 2.95.. .HUGE implications for Gold/Silver, and the related miners.

10.03am..well, another wave sign of it levelling yet! VIX is making a play for the 22s

10.25am..11am is often a typical time for a floor, not long to wait.

I remain on the sidelines, looking to pick up an index-long

10.35am.. am LONG  the indexes from sp'1564. Seeking an exit in the mid 1570s within a few hours. VIX looks done on the 15min cycle.

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are significantly lower, sp -18pts, we're set to open around 1574, a clear break under the Friday morning low of 1577. USD is 0.5% higher, and that is pressuring everything lower, including the precious metals (Gold -$14) and Oil (-0.4%).




Well, futures saw some mild chop early last night, but I awaken to see them under the key low of 1577.

What now?

The 60min cycle remains on the low side, and still hasn't recovered from last weeks fall. On any basis, we could see a latter day bounce from these levels. Yet, from a count perspective, was Friday just a minor'2, with today a wave'3 to 1550/30s?

We'll likely know from the opening 30/60mins.

I will not be chasing the open lower. In fact, I'll consider a small index-long position, but as noted, it really depends on the early price action, including the VIX.

If the VIX is spiking into the >22s, then we could indeed be in a very severe wave'3 lower.

Good wishes, for what will indeed be a volatile and exciting week.

9.25am...set to open @ sp'1577..

Lets see how the opening 30/90mins go. I'm still guessing these declines will not last.

1610/20s..before 1530s...yes?