VIX higher for a second day

Whilst equities closed broadly weak, the VIX managed to hold most of the morning gains (intra high 18.33), settling +11.1% @ 17.60. Near term outlook offers the sp'2115/20 zone, and that will likely equate to VIX cooling to the 13/12s by next weeks FOMC.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

A rather mixed day in VIX land. Equities saw some rather twitchy action in the early morning, resulting in an opening black-fail candle for the VIX, but by 10am.. it did not hold.

As things are, sustained action in the 20s still looks difficult, even with the Fed set to raise rates next Wednesday.

To be clear, I do NOT expect the VIX to explode into the mid/upper 20s... never mind the 30s before year end.

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more later... on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equities closed broadly weak, sp -13pts @ 2063 (intra low 2052). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -2.8% and -0.4% respectively. Near term outlook is for renewed upside.. first target remains the 2115/20 zone. More broadly.. the 2150s look viable, not least if the Fed raise rates next Wednesday.


sp'60min

Summary

*closing hour action:
--

A second consecutive net daily decline for most indexes, and as many recognise, price structure is increasingly coiling up for a big break... one way or another.

Considering 'everything'... I have to believe the market will resume high... last Friday was fine example of what can happen these days.

The 2115/20 zone still looks a comfortably upside target... and I'm guessing we'll see 2150s before most realise whats happening.


--

Market of Dreams

--
more later... on the VIX

3pm update - the threat is against the bears

Despite the current equity weakness, much like last Thursday, price structure is more a problem for the bears.. than the bulls. Soft declining trend/resistance was broken above in the 2pm hour, a daily close >2065 (notably above the 200dma) should be enough to calm anyone currently long.


sp'60min

sp'daily5

Summary

Sure... it has been a day for the bears... coming pretty close to negating all of last Friday's gains, but the hourly candles don't favour the bears tomorrow.

All that is missing is for Oil to start climbing. There is an API report AH, with the EIA tomorrow morning at 10.30am.

First obvious upside target will be the $40 threshold.. which is around 6% higher.
--

notable strength.... momo stocks (did someone hit the buy MOMO button this afternoon?

FB +1%
NFLX +2%
TWTR +2%

.. all the above stocks were significantly lower at the open.
--

back at the close

2pm update - short term oil capitulation?

Whilst the broader equity market remains moderately weak, the daily oil candle is offering threat of a short term floor.. ahead of the next set of inventory reports. However, with Oil in the $37s, even a 20% ramp into early 2016 would only get Oil back to $44/45s.


USO'daily2

sp'60min

Summary

*a rather large reversal candle in Oil..... with another spiky hourly candle in equities.
--

The hourly equity MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle is on the low side, much like last Thursday, the threat is almost entirely against the bears.

If Oil can start pushing upward from today's low of $36, the main equity market is going to start climbing again.
--

notable strength.. amongst the energy/commodity carnage...

CHK +1.2%
CNX +0.2%
RIG +0.6%

--
yours... cold.
-

2.12pm.. sp'500 BREAKS above declining trend/resistance...  next level 2080.. then 2093.. 2104.

The door is now wide open...

Oil turns up.... +0.3%

1pm update - Transports is a serious problem

Whilst the headline indexes (sp'500, Dow, Nasdaq), are holding broadly within their upward trends from the Aug/Sept lows, there is a real problem within the 'old leader' - Transports, currently -2.6% in the 7600s. The break of trend is clear... and this is despite Oil prices at levels not seen since Feb'2009 !


Trans, daily

Trans, monthly'2

Summary

A break below the Aug' low of 7452 would be a major problem to those seeking broader upside into.. and across next year.

For now.. its something to keep in mind.. whilst most others get overly hysterical about relatively moderate swings in the sp'2090/40 zone.
--

stay tuned!

12pm update - battling to break above resistance

The sp'500 has already come close to turning positive, but was rejected at soft declining resistance of 2073. Price action remains pretty choppy, not least as Oil continues to see sig' swings (intra low $36.64), currently -0.5% in the $37s. 


sp'60min

USO'daily2

Summary

It sure ain't boring.. as the market continues to see rather wild price chop.

Broadly, it remains a case of the market trying to adjust ahead of the Fed raising rates next week.

Ironically. I'm guessing we'll see the market close net higher next Wednesday... and that will naturally surprise the mainstream... and the many lunatics on sites such as Zerohedge.
--

notable weakness.. QCOM -4.5% @ $50.05

airlines, DAL/UAL, both lower by around -3.5%

Indeed, the Transports index is -2.4% in the 7600s... which in itself is a red flag for the broader market. Hmm

--
VIX update from Mr T.



--
time for tea :)

11am update - a spike floor from 2052

US equities break a new intra low of sp'2052, with the VIX hitting 18.33. Price action is increasingly choppy, and once again the market will have another opportunity to push for a latter day recovery. Like yesterday, a daily close above the 200dma (2064) should be a basic target for the bull maniacs.


sp'60min

sp'daily5

Summary

Price action is much like last Thursday afternoon, as we have two hourly candles offering a clear spike-floor of sp'2052.

To break declining trend/resistance, need a daily close >2065.. which looks probable.

-
notable strength/reversals from opening lows...

CNX +5.8%, from -2%
RIG +0.9%, from -2%

The interesting scenario would be how the Oil market might react if there is a net draw down in the next inventory reports.

As of 10.56am... Oil is +0.7%... having swung from -2.3% (or so)... key floor?

--
Meanwhile... in London city

Another reasonable late afternoon in early December. Very wintry skies, but way too mild (11c) for snow. Indeed, so far this winter, its felt broadly mild... bearish UK energy/utilities?

--
time to cook


11.01am... Oil soaring... from -2.3%... now +1.7%.. and that sure is helping the broader market recover.

More crazy swings!

10am update - opening sharp declines

US equities open significantly lower, decisively breaking below the Monday low, so far to sp'2053. VIX has naturally jumped, +10% in the 17s. Whilst the USD is -0.1% in the DXY 98.50s, metals are seeing some chop, Gold +$2. Oil remains in implosion mode, -0.8%, having broken into the $36s.


sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

*opening black-fail candle in the VIX.... spiky.... bodes for a reversal.
--

So.. sig' early declines, with the market having lost 29pts of the 42pt Friday gain.

As ever...11am... often a turn/floor time...so once again... lets see what kind of latter day rally we get. Considering the opening declines... net daily gains look out of range.

The one hope for Oil is with the next set of inventory reports.
--

notable movers...

*there are some energy stocks that are offering the first sign that a capitulation floor (short term only) has been achieved...

RIG, -2.5% in pre-market.... now +0.3%

60min cycle

Opening reversal candle... as seen also in APC.. and numerous other stocks.
--

CNX -2%... now +2.5%

SDRL -9%
--

time to shop... back soon

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. US equity futures are broadly lower, sp -17pts, we're set to open under yesterdays low, around 2060. Metals are weak, Gold -$5. Oil continues to implode, -2.3% in the $36s.


sp'60min

Summary

Overnight price action sure wasn't so pretty.. with broad weakness to the low sp'2060s.

Price structure: You could call the ongoing decline from the Friday high some kind of deep retrace... with this morning, a viable C wave.

Equity bulls sure need to hold last weeks low of 2042. If that (for whatever reason) broke... it'd be a major problem.

As ever, what will really matter is the monthly close. The key threshold (at least to me) remains the 10MA... currently in the sp'2050s. 
--

notable early movers...

CHK -5%
FCX -3%
SDRL -9%

--
Overnight Asia action

Japan: -1.0% in the 19400s
China: broad weakness, -1.9% @ 3470


--
Have a good Tuesday

Oil continuing to cause problems

OPEC's inability to come to any form of agreement on even a basic supply ceiling continues to result in major problems, with a net Monday decline for WTIC Oil of -$2.49 (6.2%), to $37.65. The weakness in Oil is clearly holding back the equity market... but renewed upside still looks due.


WTIC, weekly2

sp'weekly1b

Summary

*a new multi-year low for WTIC Oil of $37.50, the lowest level since Feb'2009.
--

A rather fiercely bearish start to the week in energy land, and that sure didn't help the broader market today.

The one solace for the equity bull maniacs, the market did at least close above the 200dma (2064), along with the weekly 10MA.

Right now, I'd only get spooked on a monthly close under 2050. Otherwise... I simply can't be short this crazy casino.. no matter how bad some of the data/news seems to be.
--

Macro-econ chatter, Long with Smith



--
Looking ahead

Tuesday has nothing of significance scheduled.
--

Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

US equities closed broadly lower, sp -14pts @ 2077 (intra low 2066). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -0.9% and -1.6% respectively. Near term outlook remains for the sp'2115/20 zone... but any daily close under the 200dma (2064) would be a real problem


sp'daily5

Trans

Summary

*Trans' remains a problem for the equity bulls, with a borderline sig' daily decline in the 7800s. First target is the 200dma in the 8300s. Right now, that target looks at least a few weeks away.
--

As for the sp'500, there is a viable short term floor of 2066...  first target remains 2115/20 zone. If the market can cope with the fed raising rates.. then 2150/70 zone before year end.

--
a little more later...