Thursday 11 October 2018

Grander concerns

US equity indexes closed very significantly lower, sp -57pts (2.1%) at 2728. Nasdaq comp' -1.2% at 7329. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -1.4% and -1.9% respectively. Near term outlook offers a bounce, but probably starting from around weekly support of the 2690s. There are grander concerns, not least for the German and Chinese markets.




It was a day of significant swings in equity land. The spx opened moderately lower to 2767 (2pts above the 200dma), but then whipsawed upward to 2795, only to see swing lower to a 2pm 'horror hour' low of 2710, and settling at 2728.

Volatility opened mixed (pre-market print 24.52), seeing an intra high of 28.84, and settling +8.8% at 24.98. S/t outlook offers (weekly cycle) support of the 2690s, before threat of a very sig' multi-day rally, starting either Friday or next Monday.


This sort of talk from the US President isn't going to help inspire broader capital market confidence.

Clown finance TV rightly pointed out the following...

Its notable that Trump has also noted that whilst he doesn't like higher rates, he acknowledges that the savers have been hard hit since 2008. I will merely add that whilst yours truly is no fan of those at Print Central, I will hope that Powell and the other governors just ignore such Presidential complaints... and keep on raising rates into/across 2019.

Bigger concerns

Whilst I understand most of you will be entirely focused on the US market, I'm trying to also keep in mind the grander picture.. via other world markets. 

Germany, monthly

The DAX is currently -5.8% at 11539. This is seriously ugly, and right now, its my biggest concern for world equities. The break of l/t trend from 2009 is not to be dismissed lightly.

China, monthly

The Shanghai comp' is currently -8.4% at 2583, having decisively broken core support of the Sept' low, and also the Jan'/Feb'2016 low of 2638.

How both of these markets settle the month is arguably very important indeed. Its difficult to see the US market able to see renewed and sustained upside into 2019, if the DAX is imploding toward 8k. Something to consider... for the rest of the month.

Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EDT) @

Goodnight from London
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