VIX'60min
VIX'daily3
Summary
Little to add
VIX remains very subdued, as equities remain broadly stuck.
--
more later.. on the indexes
Wednesday 8 April 2015
VIX continues to cool
Whilst equities saw continued chop under resistance of sp'2088/89, the VIX settled -5.4% @ 13.98 (intra low 13.75). Near term outlook remains very mixed. First key upside remains 17.19, if that can be exceeded, the VIX will continue into the 20/22 zone.
VIX'60min
VIX'daily3
Summary
Little to add
VIX remains very subdued, as equities remain broadly stuck.
--
more later.. on the indexes
VIX'60min
VIX'daily3
Summary
Little to add
VIX remains very subdued, as equities remain broadly stuck.
--
more later.. on the indexes
Closing Brief
US equities closed a little higher, sp +5pts @ 2081 (intra high 2086). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, both settled higher by 0.7%. Near term outlook remains very mixed, whilst the market remains stuck between resistance of 2088/89 and the recent low of 2039.
sp'60min
Summary
*closing hour was another chop-fest.
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.. for those trading the indexes.. it remains a very frustrating market. Price action remains pretty choppy, with a market that is clearly stuck under resistance... but which is also unable to break sharply lower.
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4.22pm.. Alcoa (AA) earnings were 'reasonable'... but the market is not happy...
5min cycle.. into AH trading..
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more later.. on the VIX
sp'60min
Summary
*closing hour was another chop-fest.
--
.. for those trading the indexes.. it remains a very frustrating market. Price action remains pretty choppy, with a market that is clearly stuck under resistance... but which is also unable to break sharply lower.
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4.22pm.. Alcoa (AA) earnings were 'reasonable'... but the market is not happy...
5min cycle.. into AH trading..
--
more later.. on the VIX
3pm update - messy day in market land
Despite a snap lower on the latest FOMC minutes, the market saw a corresponding bizarre spike from sp'2073 to 2085. The reason, algo-bots gone wild? Regardless, overall price action remains a mess.. whilst stuck between 2088/2039. Oil remains very weak, -5.7%, close to the big $50 threshold.
sp'60min
USO, 60min
Summary
*I had expected Oil to take at least into early Thursday to hit target buying zone.. but its almost there already! Indeed, a problem for the equity bears will be when Oil floors.. and turns back upward.
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A tricky closing hour to call... the smaller/bigger cycles are conflicting... and VIX sure isn't showing any upside kick power. Even a daily close in the 15s now looks tricky.
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notable gains, AA, +1.9%.. ahead of earnings.. due at the close.
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3.33pm... Equities remain real choppy... price action remains especially twitchy... and it seems reasonable to expect some of the rats to sell into the close.
Oil remains weak, -5.2%
sp'60min
USO, 60min
Summary
*I had expected Oil to take at least into early Thursday to hit target buying zone.. but its almost there already! Indeed, a problem for the equity bears will be when Oil floors.. and turns back upward.
--
A tricky closing hour to call... the smaller/bigger cycles are conflicting... and VIX sure isn't showing any upside kick power. Even a daily close in the 15s now looks tricky.
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notable gains, AA, +1.9%.. ahead of earnings.. due at the close.
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3.33pm... Equities remain real choppy... price action remains especially twitchy... and it seems reasonable to expect some of the rats to sell into the close.
Oil remains weak, -5.2%
2pm update - time for some fedspeak
US equities are looking vulnerable ahead of the latest FOMC minutes. A daily close under the 50dma of sp'2074 looks very viable, along with VIX 15s. Oil remains exceptionally weak, -5.4%, whilst Gold is -$5.
sp'60min
sp'daily5
Summary
... awaiting the press release.. from Print central.
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If a daily close <2074... then next level is 2060.
*I see a few are still mentioning the sp'1950s for this month, and whilst that IS indeed offered on the bigger weekly cycle, it looks highly unlikely.. as the general market mood remains pretty confident.
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notable gains.. AA +2.1%.. ahead of earnings.. due at the close of today!
2.02pm.... Mr Market is not happy at the press release.... back to sp'2077.... a daily close in the 2060s would be really useful to the equity bears.
Eyes to the VIX... 15s for the close would give some clarity for remainder of the week.
2.11pm.. sp'2073.... its pretty decisive now... the rats are unable to clear 2088 after a week.... another attempt to break 2039 is back on... again.
VIX set to turn positive.
2.16pm.. Err.... hyper-spike floor... from 2073 to 2082..... someone just hit the big BUY 1 million ES-mini button?
Metals not impressed though, Gold -$10 Oil still -4.9%
2.24pm... It remains a real mess... after a crazy ass swing from 2073 to 2085 in a matter of a few minutes.
Typical turn time is approaching... algo-bots are churning equity traders to pieces yet again.
VIX getting smashed, -6% in the 13s...
sp'60min
sp'daily5
Summary
... awaiting the press release.. from Print central.
--
If a daily close <2074... then next level is 2060.
*I see a few are still mentioning the sp'1950s for this month, and whilst that IS indeed offered on the bigger weekly cycle, it looks highly unlikely.. as the general market mood remains pretty confident.
-
notable gains.. AA +2.1%.. ahead of earnings.. due at the close of today!
2.02pm.... Mr Market is not happy at the press release.... back to sp'2077.... a daily close in the 2060s would be really useful to the equity bears.
Eyes to the VIX... 15s for the close would give some clarity for remainder of the week.
2.11pm.. sp'2073.... its pretty decisive now... the rats are unable to clear 2088 after a week.... another attempt to break 2039 is back on... again.
VIX set to turn positive.
2.16pm.. Err.... hyper-spike floor... from 2073 to 2082..... someone just hit the big BUY 1 million ES-mini button?
Metals not impressed though, Gold -$10 Oil still -4.9%
2.24pm... It remains a real mess... after a crazy ass swing from 2073 to 2085 in a matter of a few minutes.
Typical turn time is approaching... algo-bots are churning equity traders to pieces yet again.
VIX getting smashed, -6% in the 13s...
1pm update - minor chop.. ahead of the fedspeak
US equities remain in minor chop mode, ahead of the latest FOMC minutes (due 2pm). Renewed weakness into the close looks probable, not least with a bearish triple spike top on the daily equity chart. Oil continues to slip, -5.1%. Metals remain weak, Gold -$7.
sp'60min
USO,'60min
Summary
Little to add.
Market remains stuck under resistance, and all things considered... I'm seeking renewed weakness into the close... along with Oil -6%.
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notable strength: DIS, +1.1%.. as Avenger'2 is just weeks away.
sp'60min
USO,'60min
Summary
Little to add.
Market remains stuck under resistance, and all things considered... I'm seeking renewed weakness into the close... along with Oil -6%.
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notable strength: DIS, +1.1%.. as Avenger'2 is just weeks away.
12pm update - minor swings... under resistance
US equities are seeing minor chop... but remaining firmly under key resistance of sp'2088/89. VIX is yet to show any upside power, -4% @ 14.11, with first upside target remaining 17.19. Oil remains sharply lower, -4.3%, as the market is reminded of the oversupply ssue. Metals are weak, Gold -$5
sp'60min
VIX'60min
Summary
It remains a choppy mess.. but bears do have the edge right now.
A daily close under the 50dma of 2074 would be 'useful', along with Oil -5% or so.
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VIX update from Mr T.
--
time for lunch
12.28pm.. Oil continues to slide, -4.8%..... remaining on track.
notable weakness, coal miners, ACI -8%... most others -2% or so.
sp'60min
VIX'60min
Summary
It remains a choppy mess.. but bears do have the edge right now.
A daily close under the 50dma of 2074 would be 'useful', along with Oil -5% or so.
--
VIX update from Mr T.
--
time for lunch
12.28pm.. Oil continues to slide, -4.8%..... remaining on track.
notable weakness, coal miners, ACI -8%... most others -2% or so.
11am update - triple spike top... bearish
US equities have got decisively stuck at resistance of sp'2088/89... and we've seen an initial break under the 50dma of 2074. The daily cycle is offering a triple spike top... which is bearish in the immediate term. Oil is causing particular problems, -3.8% in the $51s. Metals remain weak, Gold -$5.
sp'daily5
USO, 60min
Summary
*yes yes... I will probably highlight Oil (via USO) most hours in the days ahead, and we're already half way to target for a long-entry.
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So.. with EIA offering a 10.9 million barrel surplus in Oil, we're seeing some broader market problems.
On balance, it looks like a daily close >2088/89 is now out of range... and bears will get another chance at taking out the key low of sp'2039.
... at least today is not dull!
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notable weakness: oil/ gas drillers, RIG/SDRL, both lower by around -2%
11.24am.. minor bounce to sp'2080... but still.. its looking weak.
Oil remains unravelling, -3.8%
sp'daily5
USO, 60min
Summary
*yes yes... I will probably highlight Oil (via USO) most hours in the days ahead, and we're already half way to target for a long-entry.
--
So.. with EIA offering a 10.9 million barrel surplus in Oil, we're seeing some broader market problems.
On balance, it looks like a daily close >2088/89 is now out of range... and bears will get another chance at taking out the key low of sp'2039.
... at least today is not dull!
-
notable weakness: oil/ gas drillers, RIG/SDRL, both lower by around -2%
11.24am.. minor bounce to sp'2080... but still.. its looking weak.
Oil remains unravelling, -3.8%
10am update - much like Tuesday
Equities open very similar to yesterday, with the market still battling to break AND hold above resistance of sp'2088/89. Near term outlook leans bullish, but broadly... the day to day swings are keeping things messy. Oil has opened sharply lower, -2.0%.. ahead of the latest EIA report.
sp'60min
USO, 60min
Summary
*I'll probably be highlighting oil more in the days ahead, as I'm looking to jump aboard (long side). Target entry is USO 17.70/50s.. but that will require WTIC Oil in the 50/49s.
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So.. opening gains, and market feels just like it did yesterday... underlying upside... but no doubt sellers will appear around 2087/89.
It is notable that we're seeing some opening black-fail candles on a number of stocks, esp' the momo stocks, like TSLA and TWTR.
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10.03am... Ohh, Fed official Dudley is speaking at the CFR (yeah, I'm sure a few of know about that organisation)... more word games about rate hikes.
*am watching the trades flying through on USO options.... big buyers in the July calls @ 21/23 strike... although I'd argue they are 1-3 days early.
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10.11am... Still seeing rather HUGE USO call buying.... now in the July 22s
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...eyes to the EIA report at 10.30am... back then!
10.31am.. EIA oil surplus... 10.9 million barrels, lol.... hillariously huge...no one wants to stop producing.
Oil reacts with a minor snap lower.. -2.3%.... I'm looking for downside into early Friday to $50/49.
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10.34am.. Market looking vulnerable.... if the 50dma is lost... 2074.... open air to 2065/55.
10.42am.. and down we go ! Let the games begin... 50dma... broken under....
10.46am.. Triple spike top on the daily chart.... bearish.. things are getting real interesting, and with Oil -4%... the market is under real pressure today.
sp'60min
USO, 60min
Summary
*I'll probably be highlighting oil more in the days ahead, as I'm looking to jump aboard (long side). Target entry is USO 17.70/50s.. but that will require WTIC Oil in the 50/49s.
-
So.. opening gains, and market feels just like it did yesterday... underlying upside... but no doubt sellers will appear around 2087/89.
It is notable that we're seeing some opening black-fail candles on a number of stocks, esp' the momo stocks, like TSLA and TWTR.
-
10.03am... Ohh, Fed official Dudley is speaking at the CFR (yeah, I'm sure a few of know about that organisation)... more word games about rate hikes.
*am watching the trades flying through on USO options.... big buyers in the July calls @ 21/23 strike... although I'd argue they are 1-3 days early.
-
10.11am... Still seeing rather HUGE USO call buying.... now in the July 22s
-
...eyes to the EIA report at 10.30am... back then!
10.31am.. EIA oil surplus... 10.9 million barrels, lol.... hillariously huge...no one wants to stop producing.
Oil reacts with a minor snap lower.. -2.3%.... I'm looking for downside into early Friday to $50/49.
-
10.34am.. Market looking vulnerable.... if the 50dma is lost... 2074.... open air to 2065/55.
10.42am.. and down we go ! Let the games begin... 50dma... broken under....
10.46am.. Triple spike top on the daily chart.... bearish.. things are getting real interesting, and with Oil -4%... the market is under real pressure today.
Pre-Market Brief
Good morning. Futures are a touch higher, sp +2pts, we're set to open at 2078. Equity bears should be seeking a break back under the 50dma of 2074. Metals are weak, Gold -$3. Oil is significantly lower after the API report, -1.5% in the $52s.
sp'daily5
Nasdaq, daily
Summary
*the Nasdaq remains especially strong. However, if 4850 is lost... its a fair way down to the rising 200dma in the 4600s.
--
So.. today is set to open much like yesterday. The difference is that the hourly equity cycles have a bearish cross, and there is viable downside across the entire day.
Certainly, equity bears should be desperate for a daily close back under the 50dma.
Right now, best downside case looks to be the 200dma... in the sp'2010s, but yes... even that will be difficult to reach... a mere 3% lower.
*awaiting the EIA report (10.30am)... along with the FOMC minutes (2pm).
--
notable early strength: TSLA +3.0% @ $209
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Have a good Wednesday.... if you can
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9.42am.. black-fail candles starting to appear on a number of individual stocks.. esp' the momo... TWTR, TSLA
sp'daily5
Nasdaq, daily
Summary
*the Nasdaq remains especially strong. However, if 4850 is lost... its a fair way down to the rising 200dma in the 4600s.
--
So.. today is set to open much like yesterday. The difference is that the hourly equity cycles have a bearish cross, and there is viable downside across the entire day.
Certainly, equity bears should be desperate for a daily close back under the 50dma.
Right now, best downside case looks to be the 200dma... in the sp'2010s, but yes... even that will be difficult to reach... a mere 3% lower.
*awaiting the EIA report (10.30am)... along with the FOMC minutes (2pm).
--
notable early strength: TSLA +3.0% @ $209
-
Have a good Wednesday.... if you can
-
9.42am.. black-fail candles starting to appear on a number of individual stocks.. esp' the momo... TWTR, TSLA
Oil has floored in the mid term
With WTIC Oil climbing strongly for the fourth consecutive day, the bigger weekly cycle has turned outright bullish. It would appear Oil is headed to at least $60 in the near term, and perhaps as high as $75 by late summer. What hasn't changed though is the supply issue... that is not resolved... at all.
WTIC, weekly'2
WTIC, monthly2
Summary
Suffice to say... it looks like we have a marginal lower low of $42.41 in March, and from there.. we're battling upward. Most notable, the weekly 'rainbow' chart, which is offering the first green candle since last June. This is pretty damn significant. The monthly cycle could take another 2 or 3 months to turn green.. at which point we may be maxing out in the $60/70 zone.
To be clear.... the over-supply issue has NOT been resolved.
Shortly after the close of today, the latest API report was issued... a 12.2 million barrel surplus.. the biggest weekly amount in 30 years.
It remains somewhat bemusing that people are so overly obsessed with RIG counts, when that has little to do with actual supply/output. You could close ALL the rigs tomorrow, that sure as hell doesn't mean the existing wells aren't still extracting oil.
With Oil seemingly floored.. and the industry surprisingly content with things.. it'd seem OPEC will not have to consider ANY supply cuts at the next scheduled meeting in June. So.. in the bigger picture... over-supply will likely remain a problem well into next year... not that I consider 'too much oil' a problem for the broader economy.
The outlook
So... a multi-week/month bounce into the summer appears underway... probably maxing out somewhere in the $60/75 zone.. .and then resuming lower to $35/30. Right now.. the latter downside looks out of range until next year.
*With the bigger weekly cycle turning bullish, I will consider going long Oil this Thur/Friday... there is a clear gap zone on USO.. that would make a tempting entry...
USO 60min
With API, and also EIA reports set to knock oil lower for a few days.. taking USO to the $17.70/50s.
--
Looking ahead
Wednesday will see the latest EIA oil report, along with the FOMC minutes (2pm).
*Fed official Powell will be speaking, maybe more 'threats' of delayed rate rises and possible QE4 will be issued.
-
Goodnight from London
WTIC, weekly'2
WTIC, monthly2
Summary
Suffice to say... it looks like we have a marginal lower low of $42.41 in March, and from there.. we're battling upward. Most notable, the weekly 'rainbow' chart, which is offering the first green candle since last June. This is pretty damn significant. The monthly cycle could take another 2 or 3 months to turn green.. at which point we may be maxing out in the $60/70 zone.
To be clear.... the over-supply issue has NOT been resolved.
Shortly after the close of today, the latest API report was issued... a 12.2 million barrel surplus.. the biggest weekly amount in 30 years.
It remains somewhat bemusing that people are so overly obsessed with RIG counts, when that has little to do with actual supply/output. You could close ALL the rigs tomorrow, that sure as hell doesn't mean the existing wells aren't still extracting oil.
With Oil seemingly floored.. and the industry surprisingly content with things.. it'd seem OPEC will not have to consider ANY supply cuts at the next scheduled meeting in June. So.. in the bigger picture... over-supply will likely remain a problem well into next year... not that I consider 'too much oil' a problem for the broader economy.
The outlook
So... a multi-week/month bounce into the summer appears underway... probably maxing out somewhere in the $60/75 zone.. .and then resuming lower to $35/30. Right now.. the latter downside looks out of range until next year.
*With the bigger weekly cycle turning bullish, I will consider going long Oil this Thur/Friday... there is a clear gap zone on USO.. that would make a tempting entry...
USO 60min
With API, and also EIA reports set to knock oil lower for a few days.. taking USO to the $17.70/50s.
--
Looking ahead
Wednesday will see the latest EIA oil report, along with the FOMC minutes (2pm).
*Fed official Powell will be speaking, maybe more 'threats' of delayed rate rises and possible QE4 will be issued.
-
Goodnight from London
Daily Index Cycle update
US equities closed somewhat weak, sp -4pts @ 2076 (intra high 2089). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.5% and -0.6%
respectively. Equities remain seeing some considerable day to day swings... stuck within the sp'2089/39 zone.
sp'daily5
Trans
Summary
Little to add... it remains a mess.
Despite the Transports closing net higher, it was the third close under the 200dma... and that should be considered a problem for the bulls.
Overall though... it IS a mess.. and there won't be any clarity until a decisive close above 2088.. or under 2039.
--
Closing update from Riley
--
a little more later...
sp'daily5
Trans
Summary
Little to add... it remains a mess.
Despite the Transports closing net higher, it was the third close under the 200dma... and that should be considered a problem for the bulls.
Overall though... it IS a mess.. and there won't be any clarity until a decisive close above 2088.. or under 2039.
--
Closing update from Riley
--
a little more later...
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