Friday 6 April 2018

Falling into the weekend

US equity indexes closed very significantly lower, sp -58pts (2.2%) at 2604. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -2.9% and -1.9% respectively. VIX settled +13.5% at 21.49. Near term outlook offers a Monday gap lower, with the sp'2470/50 zone on the menu, for a pre-earnings washout.




Overnight futures were sig' lower (the low was -42pts to 2620), as Trump's request for consideration of another $100bn of tariffs really upset the mainstream. US equities opened to 2652, but then saw a reversal. Unlike Wednesday though, the reversal was itself reversed, with renewed downside (if somewhat choppy) into the early afternoon.

Appearances from Powell and Mnuchin didn't help, and with a few breaks of soft support, equities spiralled under 2600. The closing hour was choppy, with the market makers working their magic, almost managing to pin the SPY to 260.00.

Its notable that today saw a break of the 200dma, and even though we settled above it, today's price action bodes very bearish for next week.

Volatility naturally picked up, with the VIX seeing a peak of 23.12, and settling in the mid 21s.

Best guess: the mid sp'2400s, which would arguably equate to VIX around 30. That would make for a very natural pre-earnings washout.

Sunshine for the equity bears
Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EST) @

Goodnight from London
 *the weekend post will appear Sat'12pm, and will detail the US equity indexes.

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