Wednesday 17 July 2013

Volatility headed for the 12s

With the main equity indexes holding together, market fear/volatility continues to decline, with the VIX closing -4.4% @ 13.78. VIX looks set to break into the 12s, certainly once sp' is trading in the 1700s. The only issue is whether VIX 11/10s are hit in the current equity up wave.




There is nothing to be said..other than it remains a fearless market.

Even VIX in the low 20s look difficult in late August/early September.

more later..on those bullish indexes

Closing Brief

Another very quiet day in the market, with the sp'500 closing at 1680. The market appears confident that the Fed will keep the printing going, at least into summer 2014. With low volume, conditions look near perfect for the algo-bots to melt the market higher into early August.



A pretty tiresome day, or maybe thats just the summer heat getting to me?

Bears still look very weak, and with the VIX in the 13s, it is unquestionably a fearless market.

*I remain on the sidelines.

the usual bits and pieces across the evening

3pm update - still quiet out there

Despite a touch of weakness in the main indexes, most are still +0.2% or so, the market is holding together very well after the latest Fed econ-report/outlook. VIX is still -4% in the 13s, whilst the metals are very weak. Oil is holding gains of 0.9%.



Things only get 'moderately' interesting if we break the lower channel.

At the Thursday open, bears need a break <1665 to be decisive. Frankly, I find a near 1% decline very unlikely, never mind actual consistent trading in the 1660/50s.

Bears are surely best to just leave this alone for another few weeks.

I see a fair few suggesting the market will max out next week, but based on the weekly charts, early August looks far more likely.

3.23pm...pretty tiresome...minor moves...and we're back in the sp'1680s.

Gold remains weak..-$16

2pm update - more fed nonsense

The algo-bots are about to react to another set of fed-speak..via the 'beige book'. Hourly index charts are inclined to the upside, and with what is very likely low volume, these remain prime conditions for higher levels into the close. Gold/silver..both remain very weak.



Little to say..lets see how the bots decide to interpret the latest guesses from the Fed.


Ohh..and like the Bernanke...neither am I, a qualified financial advisor.    :)

1pm update - another micro ramp

Market remains in a rather subdued mood, despite the Bernanke. Hourly index charts are offering significant upside into early Thursday. VIX is very weak, -3% in the high 13s. Gold/Silver remain weak, Oil is holding moderate gains.



With 3 hours to go, lets see if the algo-bots like the fed-speak in the latest beige book..due @ 2pm.

On balance, I have to guess we'll just battle/melt upward into the close.

There seems no reason why the sp' won't be trading in the 1700s 'soon'..

12pm update - another boring day

The main indexes are struggling to moderate gains, with the sp' slipping back under 1680. Generally though, its a pretty dull day, and the market is now waiting on the Fed beige book/report at 2pm. Metals are very weak, Gold -$21




Smaller 5/15min cycles are indeed rolling over, but a daily close under yesterdays low of 1671 looks unlikely.

Today certainly does not feel like May'22..or June'19. Bears are still weak, and primary trend remains to the upside.

time for lunch

VIX update from Mr T

back later

11am update - market stuck

Market appears stuck around sp'1680. What will be interesting is how the market reacts in the late afternoon, not least with the release of the latest Fed beige book. VIX is weak, and looks set to close in the 13s. Gold has swung back to the downside, now -$11



Relatively...dull so far today.

From the daily chart, you can clearly see the MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle rolling over, but we are still in deeply positive territory on the cycle

Bears still look powerless.

Bernanke 'I'm not a qualified financial advisor'.

Yeah...we figured that much Ben.

10am update - time for the Bernanke

The market opens moderately higher, after the Bernanke statement was released (surprisingly) at 8.30am. Hourly index charts are looking bullish, and if the market decides it likes what Bernanke says in the Q&A, a close in the 1690s is a given.

sp'60min3 - broad outlook


I suppose we could be in a sub' wave 4.....but really, it could just as easily be a sub'2 of 3.

If that's the case, we haven't even seen the strongest gains in this rally yet.


Regardless, its time for the Bernanke, which could easily drag on until around 1pm.

No point in shorting...way too risky...and going long ahead of the Bernanke...,err, no thanks. hard is it to get a $15 working mic?

Meanwhile, sp' is a mere 4/5pts from hitting all the 1687 short-stops.

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are largely unchanged, we're set to open at sp'1676. Precious metals are weak, -0.75%, whilst the USD is moderately higher. The next two trading days will be all about how the market interprets the Bernanke-speak. Urghhh.



Well, here we go again. Its the same old nonsense game of not what the Bernanke says..but whether the market interprets that to mean QE will more likely than not..continue.

We really do live in a QE-drug dependent market, and I'm beyond tired of it.

Hourly index charts are very much offering significant gains across the day..and into early Thursday. Bears beware.

*Bernanke will be set to speak at 10am..probably until 1pm, and that will no doubt be given blanket coverage on both clown finance TV networks.

Awaiting the Bernanke...again

The US market closed lower for the first time in nine days, although volume remains 'summer light'. The clown finance TV networks will no doubt give the Bernanke blanket coverage both tomorrow and Thursday morning, as he testifies to the US House/Senate.

sp'weekly4b - hyper-bullish, with fib levels


Regarding the single chart above, it is part of the hyper-bullish outlook, which is seeking broad upside into spring 2014.

There is a fib' retrace already added - even though a clear top is clearly not yet in place. My current best guess is that we'll max out in the 1740s. So, a .38 fib retrace (from the June 2012 low of sp'1266) would give the 1560s. Interestingly, that will be where the lower weekly bollinger is in September.

Broadly, best guess is 1740s...then 1560s....before much higher levels into year end, and continuing into spring 2014.

Broad trend remains...UP

The following is indeed an extremely simple chart, but it does help make things clear...

sp'monthly3, rainbow.

Primary trend remains to the upside, and after the blue candle of June - when the sp' floored @ 1560, we're now back to outright bullish. We're currently stuck near the upper bollinger of sp'1675, although in early August, that might have risen to around 1700

The monthly 10MA will be 1550/60 in Aug/September, and that should be the primary target for the bears in the next multi-week down cycle.

Looking ahead

Tomorrow (and Thursday) will be all about the Bernanke. It should also be noted that the Fed beige book is issued at 2pm, and that is certainly something the market takes note of.

*no sig' QE until this Friday opex.

I will again consider an index/Oil long position tomorrow, but really, I'm just so tired of the current nonsense, and I might sit back until early August, and then look to launch a short position.

Goodnight from London


Video update from Oscar


Daily Index Cycle update

The 8 day winning streak for the indexes is broken, but the primary trend remains to the upside. The sp' hit an intra-day low of 1671, and that was close to the hourly lower bollinger..a very natural bounce level. Bears face considerable problems if the Bernanke pleases the market tomorrow morning.



So..a moderately lower close, and the sp'500 is yet to break the May'22 high of 1687, but considering other indexes - like the R2K, are well above their May highs, I have to assume the sp' will follow.

It seems just a matter of whether its tomorrow..or more week.

Broad upside into early August appears still on track.

a little more later..