Saturday 27 December 2014

Weekend update - US weekly indexes

US equity indexes climbed for the second consecutive week. Net weekly gains ranged from 2.3% (Trans), 1.6% (R2K), to 0.9% (NYSE Comp, Sp'500, Nasdaq). Outlook into January remains bullish, with the next soft target zone of sp'2130/50. Considering the bullish break in the R2K, a straight run to the 2300s is viable within 3-4 months.

Lets take our regular look at six of the main US indexes


A second weekly gain... 18pts (0.9%), with a new historic high of 2092. The short term trend has accelerated, the 2100s are due, whether by year end.. or early January.

The weekly/monthly cycles are both offering the 2130s by mid January... 2150/60s late Jan/early Feb. The 2200s look more likely after another minor pull back of 3-5%. The 2300s look very viable by late spring, with 2500s sometime in summer 2015.

Nasdaq Comp'

The tech' has broken a post 2009 high of 4806.. a mere 326pts (6.8%) below the March 2000 'tech bubble high' of 5132. That now seems likely to be hit in spring 2015. Any monthly close in the 5200s will open up the next primary target of 7k.. which is a huge 46% higher.


The mighty Dow gained a very respectable 248pts (1.4%) this week. There is near term upside to the 18300s, and 18500 by late January. Next key fib' level is 18974, which seems viable in the spring. The next giant psy' level is 20k.. which appears likely into the summer.

NYSE Comp'

The master index gained around 0.9% this week, having broken the 11k threshold (briefly) on Friday. Next upside target are the 11300s.


The second market leader has seen a critical breakout to the upside, having been stuck for the year. The double top of March/July - 1212/13 has been decisively closed over, with a new historic high of 1217.

The breakout in the R2K is arguably the most significant bullish event in the past few months.. perhaps even the year. Next upside target are the 1300s... the 1500s by end 2015 look very viable.


The 'old leader' is leading the way, with another strong weekly gain of 2.3%. The 9500s look likely in Jan/Feb... before the next possible retrace. A break <9000 in the next wave lower looks highly unlikely. The giant 10k threshold looks a reasonable target for 2015, although the transports stocks will be somewhat laggy if Oil has seen a mid term floor in the $53s.


Suffice to say.. a second week higher, with new historic highs not just in the Dow and sp'500... but far more importantly... in the R2K.

Further upside into Jan' 2015 looks highly probable. At best, equity bears might achieve a few weeks of downside, starting somewhere in the 2125/50 zone. On no outlook does sub sp'2k look viable for a very considerable time.

Looking ahead

Again, it will be a short trading week... the only notable data is Chicago PMI on New Years eve.

M - -
T - case shiller, consumer con'
W - jobless claims, Chicago PMI, pending home sales
F - *First trading day of 2015*    PMI/ISM manu', construction spend'

Podcast'5... by yours truly.

back on Monday

Bull maniacs get the R2K signal

It was another week in favour of the bull maniacs, with the second consecutive net weekly gain for the sp'500 of 18pts (0.9%) @ 2088. Far more important though, the R2K, having been stuck in a range across 2014, has achieved a key break >1213. There is nothing to stop this market now.


R2K, monthly


*the second consecutive weekly green candle on the sp'500 'rainbow' chart... there is simply nothing bearish here. It is notable that the upper bol will be offering the 2115/20 zone by end year.

Since the big turn in mid October, the market has achieved net weekly gains for 9 of the past 11 weeks. There is no sign of this latest up wave ending.. and indeed.. the 2130/50 zone looks a relatively easy target by mid/late January.

Have a good weekend... and goodnight from London

*the weekend post will be on the US weekly indexes

Daily Index Cycle update

US equities climbed into the weekend, sp +6pts @ 2088 (new historic high 2092). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.2% and 0.7% respectively. Near term outlook is bullish into the new year... with next upside target zone of sp'2130/50.





*most notable today.. if not perhaps the entire year, is the R2K, which has finally broken the double top of March/July (1212/13). The break should be seen as a powerfully bullish signal, that is highly suggestive of sp'2500 this year.. if not much higher.

On any basis, ALL cycles remain outright bullish.

a little more later...