Volatility on the rise

Despite the main indexes all closing moderately higher, the VIX held up rather well across the day, closing +3.5% @ 14.48. Hourly charts are offering VIX 16s for Wednesday, but that would likely be the peak of this current six day cycle.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

The VIX opened lower by around 2% or so, but that was pretty impressive considering the Dow was +200pts! VIX held very comfortably within my target zone - from last Friday, of 13.70/50,

Hourly MACD cycle is set to go positive at the Wednesday open, and I would not be surprised if VIX is trading in the high 15s..even low 16s early tomorrow.

However, considering big QE due at 10am, I don't think the bears are going to be able to muster anything higher than the 16s.

more later..on the indexes

Closing Brief

The main indexes closed higher, but well off their highs. The Sp' close of 1660 was a good 14pts off the morning high. VIX closed +2%, which is somewhat impressive considering the positive indexes.


sp'60min

Summary

Interesting day, and despite a minor up cycle in the closing hour, I am rather pleased with how we closed.
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*I hold heavy short overnight, seeking an exit in the sp'1630/25s.

More later...

3pm update - weakness into the close

On balance, it should seem we will seem general weakness into the close. Considering the sp' is now only 9pts higher, there is still a moderate chance of fractional red Tuesday close. VIX is showing some power, and a close in the mid 14s would certainly be..useful.


sp'60min

vix'60min

Summary

VIX has broken above a series of minor lower highs..and the door is now open to the 16s.

In theory, hourly charts are suggestive of weakness into the close, and especially early Wednesday.

The problem for the bears is that at 10am tomorrow, a rather large QE occurs.
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I will very likely hold heavy short overnight..seeking an exit early Wednesday in the sp'1630/25 area.
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UPDATE 3.32 .  sp'1659....I'd certainly like a close <1660.

I will hold short overnight.

2pm update - its a fine day

The main market is indeed rolling over..on a Tuesday no less. If this carries through to the close, the cheer leading maniacs on clown network will need to be on overnight suicide watch. A red Tuesday? VIX is now green, and a spike into the 16s is very viable tomorrow.


sp'60min

vix'60min

Summary

I'm very pleased with how things are going so far today. Bulls are getting caught out on a Tuesday! The fact there is no significant QE is no doubt helping the bears, and we should in theory see the market weaken all the way into the close..and indeed,..early tomorrow.
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*I am heavy short the indexes from sp'1672, seeking an exit 1630/25 - the secondary target from last week.

I will very likely hold overnight, and look for an exit on any opening gap lower.
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..for the techno bears out there...



It could indeed be a fine day..tomorrow.


UPDATE 2.11pm..Transports going red...target is the low 6200s..which I believe will hold, and form a near term low.

stay tuned..

1pm update - bears need to push lower from here

Main indexes are holding gains, but we're well off the highs, from sp'1674 to 1666/64. VIX is close to going green, and there is considerable room for a spike into the 16s tomorrow. Oil is higher, but looks maxed out..especially on the daily charts.


sp'60min

Summary

Certainly, its starting to shape up for an afternoon battle.

Bulls took the morning, stopped out most of the bears who held across the weekend, but now the bears are able to fight back.

Hourly MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle set to rollover across the entire afternoon, and into early Wednesday.

Could be a rather exciting closing hour.
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*I am heavy short the indexes from sp'1672, seeking an exit @ 1630/25, as early as tomorrow.


UPDATE 1.32pm... sp'1661s...looks like bears are going to take over...a red close would be a massive victory for the bears, but right now would be a 'bonus'...its not a target.

VIX back to evens on the day.

12pm update - rolling over

We're seeing a fair chunk of the morning gains start to evaporate. The ultimate question is where will the market close? Bears should arguably be pleased with any close <1660, and also seek a green VIX close. Oil remains higher...but is off the highs.


sp'60min

vix'60min

Summary

Its starting to get kinda interesting. As noted, I'd most certainly like a daily close back in the 1650s, and a VIX showing renewed strength.

I don't expect a red close, that would be a real shock to the cheer leading maniacs on clown TV who are again hysterical...since its a...Tuesday, and we never fall on Tuesdays...right?

If we do manage to close red today, I'll laugh myself silly into the early hours of the night.
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*I remain heavy short, seeking an exit early Wednesday.

VIX update from Mr T.




back at 1pm

11am update - cycle topping out?

The market has had a good run so far this morning, but things are very likely at the top end of whats viable for today. The 15min cycle is maxed, although the hourly is nowhere near offering a rollover yet. Oil is still strong, but is off the highs. VIX is only -1.5% Interesting huh?


sp'15min

sp'60min

Summary

Certainly, today's jump is higher than I had expected, but I'm fine with that. It just makes for a better re-short level.

I think the mid 1670s are as high as we're going in this latest round of nonsense.
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*I am heavy short the indexes, - via IWM, from sp'1672.

I am seeking an exit in the sp'1630/25 range within the next few days. I suppose it could take longer, but considering the recent action, I'm very pleased with my re-short level (having bailed at 1639 last Friday morning.
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For me, this should catch the eyes of the equity bears...Oil with a black/fail candle.

A red close would be a bonus.

11.03am... VIX hourly is turning..and has flooted right in the target range of 13.70/50.

Equity bears should be looking for a 'brief' VIX spike in the 16s in the next wave lower.

10am update - big opening ramp

The main indexes start the week with a pretty significant gap higher, and we've broken back into the 1670s. Incredible underlying strength, although no doubt, a large amount is a result of short-covering. Oil is matching the main market, +1.8%. VIX is only marginally lower.


sp'60min

vix'60min

Summary

We have a possible reversal on the VIX, which is only 2% lower.
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*I am on standby to launch a very major re-short, but am in NO hurry.

Will re-assess as the morning progresses. I do NOT expect the market to close in the 1670s.

Indeed, it will be VERY difficult to get an hourly close >1675
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10.12am..Transports starting to look toppy. Oil daily candle..now black.

Am SHORT.the main indexes.from sp'1672

5, 15min cycles look done. I admit there is NO clear turn/levelling phase on the hourly, but I'm very pleased with my entry level in the low 1670s, thats a good 10pts above what I was seeking last Friday.

Now...I wait... I will very likely hold overrnight..and seek an exit early Wednesday.


Here is Oil, via USO, which is starting to look like a problem for the bulls...

A red close for Oil would be VERY bearish for the broader market.

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning, and welcome to a shortened trading week. Futures are rather significantly higher, sp +16pts, we're set to open @ 1665. This is above the first target of 1660/62, and next target is the 61.8% fib of 1667. It would seem we'll hit the latter. Oil is higher, but metals are weak.


sp'15min

sp'60min

Summary

Well, here we go again. Market will gap right over the Thursday high of sp'1655, and thus we're going to see a rather large opening jump.

No doubt many bears will be kicked at the open, and some bull chasers will appear.

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I am holding to the original plan, and will seek an index re-short later this morning. I will be looking for a rollover on the hourly MACD cycle.

Considering the size of the opening gap higher, we might not see a confirmed rollover until the late afternoon.

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*there is no significant POMO today, but there are very big ones both tomorrow and Friday.

updates across the day.

UPDATe 9.37am..I have to say, this is pretty crazy open. Its well above what I was expecting.

First key resistance , hourly upper bollinger...1675.