Thursday, 26 December 2013

Closing Brief

The main indexes closed with further gains, sp +8pts @ 1842. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.3% and 0.1% respectively. A year end close somewhere in the sp'1850/70s is now the best bullish outlook by the Tuesday Dec'31st close.




*I won't bother with the hourly charts, doesn't seem any point in getting overly focused on the small cycles.

Frankly, I'm real tired, not least since visitor traffic is light, and there is little point in posting as much.

As for the VIX, yes, it has something of a floor-spike, but I am dismissive of it. VIX is low, and the earlier break into the 11s is kinda important to note.

There is zero reason why equities won't rally into January..along with a lower VIX.

A little more later in the evening

Closing update from Riley


3pm update - closing hour gains

Equity indexes have seen a further micro wave to the upside, and we're in the sp'1840s, with the Dow 16500s likely by the Friday close. The bigger weekly/monthly cycles have been warning of these year end levels...since the early summer.



With the VIX slipping into the 11s, and sp'1840s..what else is there to say?

Its not like there wasn't ample warning of this.

Since the June low of sp'1560s, the bigger cycles have been offering rather clear price action and even clearer price structure.

The Dow had a six month giant bull flag.....

Hell, how could you not complete the rest of the sentence by now?


Tired of watching the bearish idiots still tout their nonsense.

2pm update - VIX falls into the 11s

With the sp'1840s, and Dow in the 16400s, it remains a fearless market. Naturally, the VIX has slipped into the 11s, and it does indeed reflect the mainstream who have zero concern in the near and mid term. The hysteria in TWTR, +5% in the $73s is similarly reflective of this situation.


TWTR, daily


What is there to say?

We have indexes at new highs and the VIX is in the 11s. Arguably, the price action in TWTR is even more illustrative of how crazy bullish things are right now.

1pm update - no one out there

Equities are holding moderate gains, with a weekly close in the sp'1840s very viable..along with Dow 16500s. VIX is slowly melting into the 11s...the only issue is whether 10s..even 9s are viable before the intermediate top is done this spring.



Its getting somewhat tiresome, or maybe I need more chocolate?

.anyway...I realise I'm almost writing just to myself.   Urghhh

VIX and GLD update from Mr R.

As for Gold..ohh, sure it could bounce..hell, a 50% retrace of the sub'3 from the spring is viable, but it will take the monthly charts at least until early 2015...for underlying momentum to turn positive.

Only a maniac will be long the precious metals right now, but hey..that is the delusion and madness of the typical gold/silver bug. Idiots..all of them.

12pm update - holding moderate gains

The indexes are comfortably holding moderate gains, with sp'1838, and Dow in the 16400s. Meanwhile, VIX is melting lower, with a likely weekly close in the 11s. The shippers are continuing to pick up momentum, with old timer +11%.


DRYS, weekly


Suffice to say...the trends are proceeding as expected.

Shippers are set to be the hot sector for the spring. As ever, they will be largely dependent upon the action in the BDI.

Other notable strength: TSLA +3%, TWTR +6%

11am update - Dow crusing higher

The main indexes are holding moderate gains, with the Dow in the 16400s. This confirms the original outlook that a break into the 15800s are important, and with a successful back test, there is upside to 17000/500 by the late spring. VIX is melting lower...the 11s are due.

Dow, daily


It remains pretty quiet out there, but still, there is some dynamic action, if you look around a bit.

Shippers remain strong, with DRYS +7%, and most others +1-2%

10am update - shippers are flying

The main indexes open a little higher, with the sp'1840s likely in the immediate term. Metals are seeing gains - Gold +$10, but this is probably just a bear flag. Notable strength in the shipping stocks, DRYS +8%, and set for the 5/6s by mid January.

DRYS, daily

GLD, daily


It remains a largely sleepy market, but there is ZERO downside pressure out there.

There is some pretty dynamic action though in particular stocks..notably those shippers.

With the BDI set for the 3000/500, even the 4000s by the late spring, DRYS.. et al, all look set to double.

Naturally, the usual momo stocks are similarly doing well, with TWTR now in the $73s.

Some of the bigger stocks, APPL, AMZN, GOOG...just cooling off a little, before pushing higher.

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are moderately higher, sp +4pts, we're set to open around 1837. Precious metals are similarly higher, with Gold +$5, and Silver 1.2%. Market looks set to broadly rally into the new year, with the monthly charts offering 1875/1900 by late January.



*jobless claims: 338k, not exactly great, but not bad either.
-- we are again!

There would seem little reason why we won't close this week somewhere in the 1835/45 zone, which would certainly make for another important weekly gain.

What will be far more interesting is the opening price action in early 2014. Will the market manage a further wave higher..even to the 1900s?
Notable early movers: DRYS +2%, TSLA/TWTR +3%

9.38am.. look at those shippers fly!

sp'1838...the 1860/70s coming in doubt.